Predictions: At Yahoo’s Econ Calendar — Briefing.com expects 285,000 seasonally adjusted claims, while “Markets” expect 288,000.
The report will be here at 8:30.
HERE IT IS:
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending April 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 295,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 294,000. The 4-week moving average was 284,500, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 282,750.
￼The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 279,097 in the week ending April 18, a decrease of 28,102 (or -9.1 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 29,369 (or -9.6 percent) from the previous week. There were 299,182 initial claims in the comparable week in 2014.
There was a significant difference in the seasonal adjustment factors (94.6 this week, 90.7 for same week last year). Last year’s comparable week was the week before Easter, but I don’t see the fact that this year’s week didn’t have Easter as justifying such a big change. Seasonally adjusted claims would have been 308,000, or 13,000 higher, using last year’s factor; I’d split the difference and say that today’s figure “should” have been a bit over 300,000.
Though it’s too early to get overly concerned, the overall trend here is not in a very favorable direction.