Prediction: Well, a sort-of prediction — Bloomberg News says that “U.S. economic data today will show new home sales fell in June, while a weekly report on initial claims for unemployment insurance will say applications rose.”
Last week came in with 302,000 seasonally adjusted claims.
Update: Business Insider has a 307K prediction.
Seasonal adjustment factors:
- Week ended July 19, 2014 — 99.2
- Week ended July 20, 2013 — 103.0
- Week ended July 12, 2014 — (before revision)
- Week ended July 20, 2013 — 340,457
It looks as if this week’s seasonal factor will make today’s result look better than it should by about 11,000 or 12,000 claims. Both weeks above were full five-day, mid-July business weeks, and there doesn’t seem to be a good reason for the differential between the years’ seasonal factors, and last year’s seasonally adjusted results were consistent with other weeks in July.
For a repeat of or improvement upon last week’s performance, raw claims will need to be 311,000 or lower (311K divided by 1.03 is 302K, rounded).
But, consistent with what was just noted above, raw claims really need to come in at or below 300K.
We’ll see here at 8:30.