Talk Radio in Beginning of Decline? Blame Blogs? (Part 1)

Go HERE for Part 2.

The first paragraph below was last updated at 5:15PM ET April 27–The rest of the post, with minor edits and added links, is as of the time indicated Wed. night, except for clearly identified updates below.
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The question marks are in the title only because I don’t think there is yet enough evidence to KNOW that is happening. I heard it for the first time at about 9PM on Wednesday (yes, on the radio), have decent info relating to only two cities (but they are biggies), and contrary evidence for other cities from a radio insider (see below). I’m going to be following this over the next few days because I think it may represent an important shift.

What I heard is that talk radio listenership declined significantly in the first quarter of this year, virtually across the board.

Now, it doesn’t surprise me. Most obviously, the presidential election is over.

But I get the sense that the decline is more than one would expect for that reason alone (I will hopefully find more numbers than currently provided).

I believe the blogosphere has been taking listeners away from talk radio, and that the pace of this shift is accelerating. I believe it’s true on the left and the right, as Air America, having gained no meaningful traction during the election season, has fallen back as well.

The logic behind the decline is simple:

• Five-plus years ago, people listened to Rush, Liddy, and the rest to learn things the mainstream media either would not report, or would not emphasize.
• Today, those who follow the blogs have 24-7 access to alternative information. Many of us can predict what Rush, Hannity, Franken and the rest are going to talk about even before the show starts, and we can feel pretty confident that we won’t learn much that is new. So, why listen? Since the left-of-center blogosphere is just as active, one would expect that many of them feel the same way about Franken, Imus (whose program has gone through a steep decline), et al.

Speaking only for myself, I can say that almost all of my current talk radio listening occurs in the car and not in the office. Five-plus years ago, the ratio was about 50-50. Even in the car, when I get the sense that a topic I’m current with is going to be beaten up, I turn the radio off.

I sense I am not alone in this. Perhaps more than one tipping point has been reached.
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UPDATE:
Whoa. Taking a closer look at the NRO piece that takes shots at Air America:

The ratings also show WABC radio, which airs Rush Limbaugh, consistently beating Air America in New York City even though Franken had at one time claimed to be beating the conservative host there. In the 10 a.m. to 3 P.M. period in the Winter of 2005, WABC (and Limbaugh) won 2.7 percent of the audience to Air America’s 1.4 percent. In Spring 2004, WABC beat Air America 2.7 percent to 2.2 percent. In Summer 2004, WABC won 2.7 percent to 2.3 percent. In Fall 2004, WABC won 3.6 percent to 1.6 percent.

For those keeping score, that’s a 25% drop (3.6 to 2.7) at WABC/Limbaugh.

UPDATE 2:
A WaPo piece is directly on topic:

WMAL-AM (630), home of Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and other mighty righty talkers, was one of the big losers in the latest survey. WMAL lost nearly 30 percent of its core audience (adults ages 25-54) from the preceding three months, when the election was the dominant story. What had been an up-and-coming station a few months ago (WMAL ranked 11th among all stations during the fall) is now a middle-of-the-pack afterthought (it tied for 16th in the latest survey).

…….WMAL was at least able to record some ratings. Two of its AM talk competitors, WTNT (570) and WRC (1260), barely registered. WTNT — which features conservatives Laura Ingraham and Joe Scarborough — captured an average of just 0.5 percent of the Washington area’s 2.3 million adult (25-54) listeners; it finished in a tie for 26th. WRC, which turned to a liberal talk format in January by adding Al Franken and some of his “Air America” crew, was nowhere to be found. It captured less than 0.1 percent of the audience, too low to be counted.

What happened? “It’s a good question,” said Bennett Zier, regional vice president of radio giant Clear Channel Communications, which owns WRC and WTNT. “You would think that 90 days after an election, a lot of topics would still be very [hot]. . . . People are very passionate, but it’s difficult sometimes to tell where that passion is.”

I think 30% represents much more than election falloff, especially since the election was a white-hot topic only during the first 45 days of the fourth quarter of 2004. Maybe the “passion” has migrated to the blogosphere.

UPDATE 3:
I’ve been Malkinized (thanks, Michelle). Welcome to Malkin’s minions. Continued efforts at evidence accumulation are in progress.

UPDATE 4:
A commenter at Outside the Beltway says ” The broadcast radio industry is also blaming IPods and satellite radio for their demise.” I’m speculating on DECLINE, not demise, but it’s an interesting point. I would think iPods would hurt the FM and music stations more than talk radio.

UPDATE 5: A radio insider Cam Edwards (with permission) e-mails the following:

…the large drops in ratings in D.C. and New York don’t hold up across the board. KGO in San Francisco is still at a 6.5, a drop of a tenth of a point from last ratings period. That 6.5 is also 4/10ths of a point better than their Spring ‘04 ratings period, however. WLS in Chicago has lost a 2/10ths of a point. WPHT in Philly’s lost 3/10ths of a point. RKO in Boston is actually UP 2/10ths. Again, not really surprising considering the elections are over and a lot of casual listeners are now back to sports talk or their favorite music.

If the numbers go down even during the mid-term elections, then the radio industry might start paying more attention to the blogs. As it stands now, I don’t think blogosphere is cutting into the talk radio audience (at least in large numbers).

In a second e-mail, Edwards adds:

I said in my post that television didn’t kill radio, cable didn’t kill the networks, and the blogs aren’t going to kill any other form of media. It’s my belief that talk radio’s here to stay, although it’s certainly going to have to adapt (maybe as I’ve done, by having a lot of bloggers on my show).

Perhaps. I didn’t reveal, because I wasn’t sure it was important, that the person who raised the issue of talk-radio decline last night was one Michael Savage, who claimed that he is an exception, and that his ratings are WAY up, and not down (and Savage is sometimes a bit on the hyperbolic side). If so, this could explain the minor declines noted at KGO and RKO noted by Edwards (if Savage is up, the others are down, and they offset each other), especially since (if I recall correctly) Savage was changing stations in San Francisco in the early part of 2004.

Edwards posts on the topic here, and gets a bit hyperbolic on me. No, I don’t think blogs are killing or will kill talk radio, and no I am not trying to engage in wishful thinking. Zheesh. Otherwise, some very good info at the post. (UPDATE 5A: He mellows a bit on the characterizations–I appreciate his timely response.)

UPDATE 6 (SIX?-zheesh):
– Myopic Zeal agrees.
– Uncorrelated notes that the best talkers are also entertainers. I would suggest that they need to get even better at the entertainment part to keep people interested in tuning in. Also, I should note that if I want to know what’s on Rush’s mind, I go to his blog, I mean home page, and review what he covered that day (but, that means I didn’t tune in earlier).