Talk Radio in Beginning of Decline? Blame Blogs? (Part 2)

Part 1 is HERE.
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Radio and Records Ratings has the Arbitrons for the 1st Qtr of 2005 for many of the top markets all apparently released this week. Many larger markets are missing, and I don’t know why.

This is more data than I can stand, so I’ll try to limit the look to the major markets and other noteworthies (first set of numbers is 4Q04 to 1Q05, and second set is 1Q04 to 1Q05, followed by standing in market from 1Q04 to 1Q05):

- NY City:
WABC — 4.5-3.5, 3.7-3.5, 8th to 8th
WOR — 2.2-2.2, 2.2-2.2, 20th to 19th

- Los Angeles:
KFI — 4.4-4.6, 3.9-4.6, 3rd to 2nd
KLSX — 3.0-2.5, 2.5-2.5, 14th to 15th
KABC– 2.9-2.3, 2.4-2.3, 15th to 16th

- Chicago:
WGN — 5.8-5.3, 5.9-5.3, 1st to 4th
WLS — 4.4-4.2, 4.5-4.2, 2nd to 7th

Seat of the pants evaluations of some other big markets:

• Dallas-Fort Worth–dropping a bit at WBAP
• Philadelphia–nice gains at WPHT
• Detroit–very big gains at WJR (suspect this is the result of moving Dr. Laura from late AM to late PM)
• Minneapolis–big gains at monster WCCO offset almost exactly by losses at the little talkers
• Cincinnati–WKRC (no, not WKRP, silly) down 6% in 12 months and down 24% after election, fell from 5th to 8th place in market in past year with no lineup change
• Denver–KOA down 20% in past quarter but up 17% in past year
• St. Louis–KMOX Down 23% in past quarter and 5% in past year; 2nd place talker has doubled listeners in past year

Seat of the pants overall and admittedly broad-brush observations:

• The talk stations that are holding their own or improving appear to be the ones who have Savage, Glenn Beck, or both.
• Stations that are relying on the “ABC duo” of Limbaugh and Hannity appear to be taking big hits.

A pure speculation, tying back to my take on why blogs may be taking listeners from talk radio–Savage and Beck are gaining because they are less predictable and perhaps more entertaining than Limbaugh and Hannity, who even diehard fans must admit have gotten very predictable. Savage and Beck cover many items that have not been blogged; Limbaugh and Hannity cover what’s been blogged already. Blog readers, and bloggers, can leave them alone at relatively little risk of missing anything big.

That’s enough armchair analysis for a non-expert. Let’s just say that I believe I see the beginning of a trend, and it bears watching.
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UPDATE: Just heard Savage and Chris Ruddy of Newsmax (in the car, of course) give very little love to the blogosphere, and Ruddy characterized the talk radio decline as something the MSM will overemphasize when it’s just part of a “normal cycle.” We’ll see, guys.

UPDATE 2: A while back, Zmetro opined that radio as a medium is in a long-term decline for a wide variety of reasons.

UPDATE 3: My View of the World points out that the Milwaukee market may be resistant to a talk decline due to strong local hosts. Good point to possibly apply in other places where local talent is strong.