Shameless Brag about GDP Prediction; Shameless Reference to Prior Post; Predictable MSM Downplay of Good News
As predicted by Kudlow and BizzyBlog (not necessarily in that order), first-quarter GDP growth was revised upward from 3.1% to 3.5%.
I used the original reaction to the preliminary GDP growth release as a reason to explain the origins of MSM business bias.
Also as expected, the MSM business press came up reasons to be disappointed with the revision:
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The U.S. economy grew at a faster pace in the first quarter than earlier estimates, the government reported Thursday, but the stronger reading fell a bit short of Wall Street expectations.
The gross domestic product, the broad measure of the nation’s economic activity, rose at an annual 3.5 percent rate in the first quarter, compared to the 3.1 percent gain reported in an earlier report. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had a consensus forecast that the GDP would be revised up to 3.6 percent growth, while Reuters found a range of estimates from 3.2 to 4.0 percent growth.
A smaller-than-expected trade gap in March was one of the major reasons for the upward revision in GDP. Purchases of imported goods and services reduce the GDP, while exports, which grew to record levels in March, increase the measure of the nation’s economic activity.
Even with the upward revision, the first-quarter growth was slower than the 3.8 percent gain reported in the fourth quarter. Still, despite disappointing some on Wall Street, the report was a solid one, said John Silvia, chief economist with Wachovia Securities. In fact he said he expects future quarters this year to show even more slowing of the economy.
“I think the slowdown is still in the cards,” he said. “We’re probably looking at 3.5 to 3.25 (percent growth) in the second quarter, and 3.0 to 3.25 (percent) in the second half. Part of what drove the first quarter number was an increase in inventories, and a lot of that was unintentional. You’ve already seen businesses starting to scale back production to reduce that inventory.
“I don’t see a reacceleration of this economy at all, unless there is an external factor,” he said.
All that gloom over one-tenth of 1% (3.5% actual vs. 3.6% predicted). Zheesh.
As to “external factors” potentially contributing to “reacceleration” (as if going from 3.8% to 3.5% is a big slowdown)–how about these just for starters:
- Oil prices trending down.
- Airport traffic at its highest level in 5 years (but reported instead as looming problems with flight delays, cancellations, and security bottlenecks).
- Mortgage rates staying low, and even falling..
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UPDATE: 20 minutes after my post, Kudlow chimes in and exhaustively builds on the good numbers, predicting “non-inflationary prosperity for years to come.” Whew–He is a braver man than I on that one. It looks like he left the gloating to me. Fair enough.









