2nd District (OH) Congressional Election: Final Questions
Does anyone out there seriously think that Bob McEwen or Pat DeWine could have beaten Paul Hackett?
McEwen’s worst warts were just beginning to be known a few days before the primary was held. The post-election financial disclosure form, his lobbying efforts, and his suspicious speaking career, combined with the House Bank Scandal history, would have doomed him. And trust me, there was more that never got out in time for the primary that would have received wide distribution in plenty of time for August 2.
The “stay home” and crossover factors for DeWine would have been fatal.
Yes, I believe Brinkman would have defeated Hackett.
Why didn’t COAST protest Jean Schmidt’s record for supporting tax increases the honest way?
It’s oh-so-easy for you jerks (best clean word available) to claim that you suppressed the turnout. Baloney. You proved nothing. If you had the support you claim to have, you would have run a write-in candidate and advocated a protest vote. 5,000 or so votes would have proven that paying attention to you every once in a while is justified. But you know that wouldn’t have happened, and that would have exposed you once and for all as the weaklings with a fax machine and an e-mail list (accompanied by a dormant web site) that you really are.
UPDATE: Oh, you guys are classy. If the announcement at The Whistleblower (go to bottom) is really yours (one can never be 100% sure with The Blower), your use of the b-word that rhymes with witch and describing Schmidt as winning “by the skin of her grimy yellow teeth” will really endear you to the general populace. Who’s your adviser, Dale Carnegie? Your claimed list of scalps is impressive, but your responsibility for their defeats or decisions not to run is questionable at best.
What is the GOP going to do to win back the four eastern counties?
I think it would be a mistake to chalk this up to the eastern counties falling for a military guy, left-over bitterness from Jean Schmidt’s campaign last fall, and supposedly guaranteed better results in a general election. Something else is going on–unemployment is way too high, and economic growth prospects don’t look good. I think Schmidt’s ethanol efforts came across as pandering. The 25-point or so swing in Brown County from Bush 2004 to Schmidt 2005 was especially stunning.
Why are the people who are already imagining that Jean Schmidt is vulnerable in next year’s primary forgetting this?
Barring disaster, when Jean Schmidt campaigns next year, she’ll have the support of a couple of at least mildly influential people: George W. Bush and Karl Rove. Her primary opponents will have …… (crickets chirping). Ask Arlen Specter how important that is (Pennsylvania Senator Specter survived a 2004 primary scare from conservative Pat Toomey primarily because of the backing of Bush and Rick Santorum, PA’s other senator).
I’m not saying Bush/Rove’s loyalty is always a good thing, or that I agree with their occasionally see-no-evil approach. I’m just saying you can count on their support if you are an incumbent Republican.
Absolutely agree, McEwen or Dewine would have been a disaster. Brinkman probably a wash, more social conservative turnout maybe.
On the four eastern counties, I’ve been noodling on this, but I think the major factors were low unemployment like you said, but also Jean Schmidt dropped the ball by not pointing out what a divergence there was between Hackett and the average Brown County voter on social issues. He was hugely vulnerable and she never jumped on it.
Bet that won’t happen next time.
Comment by Dave — August 4, 2005 @ 7:52 am
Agree. She was inexplicably quiet about the social issues.
The Blower reports that at the Adams Co. debate Hackett mentioned support for gay marriage and two older women who were supporters walked out.
Comment by TBlumer — August 4, 2005 @ 11:03 am
I agree with you, McEwen would have been beat by Hackett. DeWine would have been beat too because of the “stay home” factor.
Comment by VikingSpirit — August 4, 2005 @ 1:56 pm
The Big Loser
The big loser in this race was Tom Brinkman. Brinkman came out looking good after the primary. However, in the general he really overplayed his hand.
Brinkman started off doing a good job of positioning himself as a challenger in 2006 with his moves b…
Trackback by Ohio 2nd — August 4, 2005 @ 2:13 pm
I made this observation myself to a couple of folks. I definitely think DeWine would have really embarrassed Republicans and lost this seat. Social conservatives were so appalled at him at the primary, I am sure their would have been a much larger number of stay at home voters. McEwen would have stood a better shot; however, Hackett’s hatchetts would have enjoyed a field day at Bouncing Bob’s check scandal. Brinkman would have brought more people out, especially when everyone realized that the Dems GOTV effort was motivitating their base. I believe out of all people who could have run for this seat, Doug White would have delivered the win in the most respectable numbers.
Comment by Gray Fox — August 4, 2005 @ 10:07 pm
Doug White?
Comment by TBlumer — August 4, 2005 @ 10:56 pm
I believe Doug White was the man who formerly held the State Senate seat Jean Schmidt and Tom Neihaus fought over in the 2004 GOP primary. Popular guy, but he’s retired.
If he had an interest in staying in public office, I think he would have ran in this race. The fact he didn’t makes me think he’s completely done. Well, for now.
Nobody ever really quits politics.
Comment by Eric Kephas — August 5, 2005 @ 12:34 am
Thx for the info.
Comment by TBlumer — August 5, 2005 @ 12:49 am