And We Should Try to Be More Like Them? Uh, No Thanks
The Associated Press reports on the sizzling (NOT) economies of the European Union (HT Anchoress, who quite correctly observes that the AP article’s tone is quite forgiving in the face of such mediocrity):
Economic growth in the European Union as a whole and the euro zone nations that use the euro currency slowed to 0.3 percent in the second quarter, the EU said Thursday, but growth in the 12 nations using the common currency is expected to pick up by the end of the year.
The EU’s statistics agency Eurostat said the 0.3 percent expansion followed first-quarter growth of 0.5 percent in both the euro zone and the entire EU.
The EU head office kept its third-quarter forecast range for euro-zone growth at 0.2 percent to 0.6 percent, but forecast 0.6 percent expansion in the fourth quarter on the back of more favorable euro exchange rates and a stronger global economy.
Apparently the EU doesn’t annualize its GDP growth statistics as the US does, so to be fair, add up the four quarters above and you get a whopping 1.6%. Weak, very weak.
But things are looking up (relatively speaking):
Europe is largely reliant on exports for growth and signs of improvement there suggest a slow recovery with 0.4 percent growth for the last two quarters of 2005, paving the way for a bullish 2.25 percent or 2.5 percent growth for 2006, said Jeremy Stretch, senior market strategist at Rabobank.
2.25%-2.5% growth in the US for more than about a year would be cause for wailing and gnashing of teeth. Remember in 1992, what Bill Clinton charged was the “worst economy of the past 50 years” was growing at 2.7% annualized (fifth paragraph) in the final quarter before the presidential election.
A further look at the article shows that Germany is struggling mightily, Finland and Greece are contracting, and Spain is growing nicely. France’s numbers aren’t in yet, but that country’s growth has been limping along at 2% or so annually for some time. The correlation between greater state control of the economy in the countries that are so often held up as the so-called exemplars of “how we should be” (especially France and Germany) and slow (or no) economic growth could not be clearer.
Also, EU Rota, which looks to be the go-to destination for all EU economic analysis (or EU-PU, as Drudge would say) plots out seven actual and two projected years of German stagnation, and notes that the press coverage of the upcoming election is literally in the pits.
Finally, just in case anyone thinks France’s situation is somehow more tolerable than Germany’s, there’s this gem (HT Don Luskin) about the country’s “unprecedented” exodus of younger people:
Unemployment among the under-25s in France stands at 23.3 per cent, and 40 per cent of 18-30 year-olds describe their financial state as “difficult.”
Eurotopia? I don’t think so.
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UPDATE: EU Rota proves the point about its indispensability by referring me (and now you) to a May post that compares the economic worlds young people in the “Anglo-Saxon model” (the US and UK) and “the Socialist-Humanist model” (France and Germany) face. Guess which one looks preferable?
UPDATE 2, August 12, 9 PM: Cross France off the “okay but not great” list. EU Rota, which has yet another great post today, this time on how much longer the unemployed stay unemployed in the heavily regulated EU labor markets, just tipped me to the latest GDP news from France: “French economy grinds to a halt.” Actually, it was a whopping 0.1%–the BBC can be so unfair to its neighbor across The Channel sometimes (/sarcasm). Germany, which I didn’t specify earlier, came in at a big fat 0.0%. Now THAT’S a “halt.”









