Mike DeWine Has Another GOP Senate Opponent

Thursday night, Bill Pierce declared his candidacy for the GOP nomination for US Senator from Ohio. The Cincinnati Enquirer was actually there(!):

Saying he wanted to control the reach, cost and growth of government, a Cincinnati engineer and math teacher announced Thursday that he would challenge U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine for the Republican nomination.

….. Although he chaired the 1980 Warren County campaign to elect Ronald Reagan, this is Pierce’s first run for political office, something that separates him from career politicians, he said.

“It’s my position we need to get more citizens involved in politics and less politicians,” he said.

DeWine said he expected to have a primary challenger.

….. “Well, we always knew we would have people. … You know, I’ve had primary opponents in about every election I’ve ever had,” DeWine said. “So I welcome him (Pierce) to the race.”

This is the guy I was referring to several weeks ago in a comment on another S.O.B. Alliance blog. WMD is disappointed.

Look, folks, I’m not claiming that Bill Pierce is The Second Coming. I CAN tell you that he is doing the types of things that unknowns usually aren’t smart enough to do, and is wearing out a lot of shoe leather and tire tread all over the state, something that, by contrast, Mitchel is definitely NOT doing, and something DeWine seems to feel he doesn’t have to do.

Pierce tells me that his candidacy is and has been a full-time effort. John Mitchel seems to be anything but full-time, and I don’t think he can shake the perpetual-candidate tag.

Having met Bill, I can tell you that he is grounded, has passion, and knows what he’s up against. His run against DeWine is a bit personal as well as political.

Pierce’s impact on the race, even if he doesn’t win, is this:

• He makes it harder for an establishment guy like Bob McEwen to claim to be the insurgent, and probably removes any doubt as to whether there will be a McEwen for Senate attempt (McEwen’s Holy-Roller supporters already tried and failed to talk Mitchel out of running, so they must know that yet another candidate ruins a Senate run for McEwen once and for all).
• If, as it appears, it’s only Pierce and Mitchel vs. DeWine, I think Pierce will separate himself from Mitchel very quickly.
• Pierce at a minimum moves DeWine to the right. I said this is a bit personal, and believe me, DeWine knows who Pierce is from Pierce’s protracted battle with the Department of Labor bureaucracy (his book about the ordeal, “Take Comfort and Solace,” is at Amazon, the related web site is here [HT Porkopolis]). Pierce is a Reaganesque conservative on just about every major issue, while DeWine has morphed over the years into one of those go-along, get-along country-club Republicans the grass roots base so despises. I think DeWine is already making consciously right-leaning votes and visibility moves (e.g., the Hugh Hewitt interview), partially to counter his primary opponents, and partially to get the base out in November 2006.

Pierce’s job is to get known by the base, and to get (my estimate) 600,000 votes this May. That’s about 10% more than the number of votes Voinovich got in 1998’s primary, the last time a Senate primary was held in a non-Presidential election year (Voinvovich’s opponent got 200,000). Right now, Pierce does not care about being known to the general electorate, just the base (seems obvious, but many newbies don’t understand that), and is acting accordingly.

Yes, Pierce has a ridiculously high mountain to climb, but I believe that if he keeps doing what he has been doing, he has a chance to have a meaningful impact, more impact than previous insurgents who have failed to get past the low-20% threshold.

I told everyone way back in late May that they had better take this unknown lawyer Paul Hackett’s 2nd District Democratic congressional run seriously when “everyone” thought that the GOP Primary winner would be a lock to win the Special Election. No way Pierce is at that level. But I will say that Mike DeWine is more vulnerable to a primary challenge than a two-term incumbent should be, and that Pierce is the only person in the race, or thinking about getting in the race, with the potential to make DeWine sweat.