November 8, 2005

Ohio’s 2005 Election Issues Posts (Near Top Until Polls Close)

Filed under: Economy,Scams,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 11:59 pm

BizzyBlog Posts:
- Final Thoughts on Ohio’s Issues Election
- Worse Than Worthless: Ohio Polls
- Ohio Issues 1-5 Live Blogpost (1 Passes; 2,3,4,5 Stomped)
- Ohio Issues 1-5: Key Counties, and What to Watch for
- One Precinct, One Visit, One Voter’s Perspective (The Ballot That Almost Ate the Voting Booth)
- Vote No on Ohio Issues 1,2,3,4 and 5: Here’s Why
- Issue 1 Sanctions Eminent-Domain Abuse
- (HUGELY IMPORTANT!) Issue 2′s Election-Day Absentee Loophole
- The Cincinnati Enquirer: Issue 2 Vote Fraud Enabler
- In Ohio, Voting Down Issue 2 Won’t Be Enough (HB 234 Must Be Repealed)
- Issue 3 Doesn’t Even Pass the Smell Tests
- Ohio Issue 4 Would Make a Bad Situation Intolerable
- Ohio Issue 5: There’s No Need to “Fix” What Isn’t Broken; Vote NO

S.O.B. Alliance and Other Notable Posts:
- Viking Spirit–Issue 1: “Legal and Economic Scam” (BizzyBlog title)
- NixGuy–CA’s Redstricting Prop is Reasonable; Ohio Issue 4′s Isn’t (BB title)
- Viking Spirit–Vote “NO” on Issues 2-5 roundup
- The Amazing Ron
- Project Logic–Issues 4 and 5 are the Ones to Watch; Toledo Blade and Various Democrats Slam Issue 2; The Anti-RON Buzz Keeps Growing; Reform Ohio Now Botches “MapQuest”; Gun Owners Against RON
- Weapons of Mass Discussion–Distorting RON Issue 4; Issue 1: Wrong for Ohio
- Black Swamp Conservative–State Issues 2-5: The Sky Really IS Falling

Ohio Issues 1-5 Live Blogpost (1 Passes; 2,3,4,5 Stomped)

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:30 pm

Statewide Results (Yes votes 000s; No votes 000s; Y-N%s):
(final listing for this post, as of 11:55 AM on November 9)
Issue 1: 1488K; 1265K; 54-46 (Issue 1 Wins)
Issue 2: 1045K; 1817K; 36-64 (Issue 2 Fails)
Issue 3: 938K; 1902K; 33-67 (Issue 3 Fails)
Issue 4: 857K; 1978K; 30-70 (Issue 4 Fails)
Issue 5: 840K; 1975K; 30-70 (Issue 5 Fails)

11:45 – Signing out for the night. Thanks to all who came by. My unique visitor total today was even higher than the total on August 2, the date of the Jean Schmidt-Paul Hackett congressional race shootout that drew national attention. Wow. We should do this again, maybe during the May 2006 Ohio primary.
11:42 – One side effect of RON’s failure is that Ken Blackwell’s hand is stengthened considerably. They made Issue 5 personal, and Blackwell personally trounced his opponents. This is one more reason you probably won’t see much news about the RON repudiation.
11:34 – I have searched Google News on “Ohio Issues Defeated” and Drudge’s linked AP Election wire for any kind of article on the trouncing of Issues 2-5, and have found absolutely nothing so far. I expect the national press to pretend that the RON efforts never happened. They’re instead going to hammer on the Democrat gubernatorial wins as rebukes of George Bush (who was, last time I checked, not on either ballot), when both races are simply holds for the party that was already in power. Yeah, Virginia would have been nice, but New Jersey was a long shot from the get-go. This anti-Bush spin is known a “typical Mainstream Media election reporting.”
11:23 – Reinforcing point on Issue 1: I heard no ads (zero) opposing it. The lack of organized, or at least visible, opposition allowed supporters to play the mom-and-apple pie ads in the final week before the election. With no meaningful response from opponents, Issue 1 bascially got in on auto-pilot.
11:18 – A strong reax to Issue 1′s win by an opponent: “In essence, the people of Ohio got scammed and that’s unfortunate,” said David Zanotti, president of the Ohio Roundtable and a leading opponent of Issue 1. “The Third Frontier program they have right now is illegal.” My opinion: I think Issue 1 benefitted from relative lack of attention due the fact that opposition to 2, 3, 4, and 5 was so strong. Someone reading the initiative for the first time in the voting booth would have probably thought favorably of the “roads and bridges” language at the beginning, and focused less on the industrial policy aspects of the issue that came later in the ballot language. Bob Taft should probably send a thank-you note to Reform Ohio Now for allowing him to slip this past distracted voters.
11:12 – Didn’t catch any issues-related interviews.
11:03 – All three channels concentrated on Mallory’s victory in the Cincy mayor’s race, which went back and forth during the evening. Then they went on to the Cincy City Council races.
11:00 – Going to check out the TV news to catch the reactions, if any.
10:53 – Although it has probably happened once or twice in the 30 years I’ve been voting, I can’t remember even one statewide election issue in Ohio failing worse than 30-70, let alone two, and conceivaly three. Even Issue 2, the one that people thought might slide by, is getting whipped, and badly. This is as thorough a trouncing of a group of issues as I’ve ever seen.
10:44 – The indicators that Issue 1 is heading for passage include its 10,000-plus margin in Hamilton County with nearly all votes counted, its current 62-38 lead in Summit with 45% counted, a resounding 62-38 lead in Cuyahoga with only 58% counted, and a very big 59-41 lead in Franklin County with 85% counted (surprises me a bit). I don’t see any big conservative areas not in yet.
10:35 – It’s beginning to look like the Issue 1 folks can put the champagne on ice. 115,000 votes is a lot to make up, even if you want to believe a disproportionate number of conservative counties and precincts aren’t in yet, which I doubt.
10:25 – I guess I should have studied the California initiatives. Those will probably be closer races.
10:22 – Hoo boy. From the Democratic Underground: “We got sabotaged by DIEBOLD!” “the pricks have stolen it – no f’ing way this is real.” “Maybe after this they will take the VAPOR VOTE seriously!!!!!!”
10:12 – From posters: “Down in flames liberal garbage.” “Thwack. You lose again, Soros.” “For this Ohian it’s a great election day.” “These returns are truly the most consequential of the night.”
10:07 – I’m going to go around to catch reaction from the supporters and antis on 2-5, since it’s going to take a while before 1 will be definitively decided.
10:05 – I guess I didn’t formally declare it over for 2, 3, 4, and 5, but obviously they are D-E-A-D dead. Thank goodness.
10:00 – WXIX’s 10 PM news is concentrating on the Cincy Mayor’s race, which is understandable.
9:58 – If the RON folks are smart, the will have delivered their concessions, turned out the lights, and started slinking out of the state before the 10 PM news comes on, because this is embarrassing. They’re probably not that smart. Expect some whining.
9:55 – Hamilton County is holding form. With about 60% counted, Issue 1 is up 52-48 the other four are failing 60-40 or worse.
9:45 – I don’t think anyone expected 2, 3, 4, and 5 to get so thoroughly trounced. Did any polling organization have this pegged? Issue 1 appears the only semi-tight race, and it has narrowed a bit percentagewise since early in the evening.
9:43 – Really, the only place where the Liberal north and northeast vs. the conservative rest of the state drama is playing out is with Issue 1. It’s carrying in counties like Cuyahoga and Mahoning and losing in places like Clermont and Warren.
9:40 – Locally, Channel 5 is the only station doing an election crawl, and with all the local races it’s hard to catch when Issues 1-5 are being shown.
9:31 – I’m not even going to try to record the detailed results by county, though I’ll mention them when most of the votes get counted. There doesn’t seem to any county that is that much different from the others to bother.
9:30 – Same old song and dance in Montgomery County, which now has some reults. 1 is up, 2-5 are behind badly.
9:27 – Aha-Ashland County is alive.
9:25 – I give up on getting anything out of Lucas or Jefferson County directly. At the state site, there’s nothing on Lucas yet, which I suppose is some consolation for the RON issue folks, but Jefferson county’s early returns are beating 2-5 by 60-40 or worse.
9:20 – WLW is concentrating its energy on the Cincinnati mayoral race and neighborhood problems. I can’t say I blame them.
9:17 – Whoever did the polling for the RON organization is going to have a hard time finding work at the rate things are going. I don’t have a link at the moment, but I remember supreme confidence that 2 would pass, optimism that 3 had a decent lead, and that 4 and 5 were in some trouble. It sure doesn’t look that way now, and again, I don’t see where the broad-based support is going to come from to make up the current trailing margins.
9:12 – My bellwether county, Darke, has 25% of the vote in and is at this point blowing up 2, 3, 4, and 5 by over 80-20. Here I thought this was a county in semi-transition from GOP dominance to about 50-50 because of a bit of a turbulent economy (lots plant closings and layoffs, but also lots of employment expansion at certain places). Oops.
9:10 – All 5 issues are failing in Clermont County’s very early returns, with the best performance being a 60-40 deficit for Issue 1.
9:05 – I’m not seeing anything yet that would make backers of 2, 3, 4, or 5 feel good. Even 2′s statewide deficit is widening. I’m having a hard time coming up with where pockets of huge support will come from at this point. 2 is ahead just a bit in Cuyahoga County now with about 15% of precincts counted, but the issues have to carry by a lot in Cuyahoga to make up for the southern half of the state.
9:00 – Mahoning is the kind of oldline Democrat County that needs to go favorably for the issues to succeed statewide. It’s still very early, but except for 1, which is up 60-40, the other four are all down 55-45 or worse.
8:55 – Quick look at early returns (18% of precincts) in Warren County. 1 is trailing a little, while 2, 3, 4, and 5 are all losing by 69-31 or worse.
8:50 – Just noticed that the state site is updating dynamically. Nice.
8:45 – STATEWIDE–The losing margins are stunning, and the counties reporting so far are mostly conservative leaners, but it’s hard to see how anyone except Issue 1 supporters can be feeling good right now. Statewide counts aren’t reporting % of precincts counted, so I removed them
8:35 – Not a lot of counts out yet. Will check the statewide in a moment. Cuyahoga’s site look like it will be very slow tonight. BUT WHOA–1st big harbinger of the night–207 of 1602 precincts in, and Issue 1 is way ahead, Issue 2 is barely ahead, Issue 3 is losing at about 55-45, and Issues 4 and 5 are getting whipped badly. I would say that the fat lady has entered the room and is taking a couple of cough drops to prepare to sing about the defeat of 4 and 5. The only question is which part of Cuyahoga–if it’s the suburbs, it’s not total doom, but if it’s Cleveland proper, look out below.
8:30 – My bellwether Darke County’s results page is up. The state issues are near the bottom.
8:25 – Lucas and Jefferson Counties still don’t have pages up. Montgomery County is doing the same thing as Hamilton County (this time it’s a 15-page PDF that requires refreshing the home page and reloading the results-ugh. Issues 1-5 are on Page 10.
8:15 – Assuming that the 8:15 counts are statewide absentees, and that form holds, which is that absentees tend to be heavy with Republicans, the fact that 1 is ahead has to make that issue’s supporters pretty happy. 2′s closeness may be a good omen for 2 supporters, while the size of the negative margins for 3, 4, and 5 would seem to put them in jeopardy.
8:10 – The SOS site results page is up, and each election has a county breakdown. If it reports as fast as the counties, the work tonight will be much easier than anticipated.
8:05 – Hamco absentees have 1 barely ahead and are just crushing 2-5 by 60-40 or more in all four cases. Somewhat expected, but perhaps not to that degree. 1′s performance among absentees unexpected, I would think.
8:00 – It figures. Hamilton County results is a 26-page PDF, so make sure your browser can handle it. It will also require continuous reloading of the BOE home page and re-viewing to get to current results. What a PITA. The 5 issues are on Page 22.
7:55 – Got a results page link for Franklin county, but you have to navigate a bit after you get to it and hope you have the right plug-in(s) for it to work. I picked a continuous scroll for Issues 1-5. We’ll see if it keeps working and updates timely. Oops-wrong. Looks like the scrolling things display all issues-ugh.
7:45 – Rearranged the post a bit so it’s hopefully easier to follow.
7:35 – Heard earlier today that WLW, the big cahuna local station in Cincinnati, won’t begin coverage until 9 PM (but at least they will be covering it somewhat continuiously, unlike during the June 14 special primary and August 2 special election. I’ll see if any of the TV crawls do anything with the elections, but don’t expect much of substance until the early local newscasts kick in at 10 PM.
7:30 – Let the liveblog begin! The first hour or so I’ll be trying to get links to actual results pages for the state and the eight counties I’m tracking that didn’t have results pages as of earlier today, plus attempting to find some predictions from the pros and antis now that the polls have closed.
7:30 – SOS predicts 41% turnout of 7.7 million voters, or about 3.2 million, so 1.6 mil-plus would be needed for an issue to carry.

Issue descriptions (links are to ballot language):
Issue 1: Bond Issuance for Government Infrastructure and Economic Development
Issue 2: Allow “No-Fault” Absentee Voting and up to Election Day Absentee Ballot Postmark
Issue 3: Campaign Spending Limits
Issue 4: “Non-Partisan, ” Competitiveness, and Math Formula-Driven Redistricting
Issue 5: Move Election Responsibility from Secretary to State to New Election Board

Ohio Issues 1-5: Key Counties, and What to Watch for

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 4:12 pm

NOTE: I will liveblog the returns on Issues 1-5 beginning at about 7:30 PM Tuesday.


Vote No on Ohio Issues 1,2,3,4 and 5: Here’s Why

Filed under: Scams,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 4:11 pm

Nov. 8 Update: Michelle Malkin–The Soros Initiatives

(original post) From Diana Fassler, State Representative, advocating “no” votes on all 5 issues (original item is here; this post will be near the top until the polls close):

Supreme Court Saves Stupid Businesses From Themselves

Filed under: Corporate Outrage,Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 4:08 pm

From Bloomberg:

Workers at meat-processing plants must be paid for the time they spend walking between their work stations and the locker rooms where they don and doff protective gear, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled.

The justices, interpreting a federal wage law, today unanimously ruled against two companies, including Tyson Foods Inc., the world’s largest meat processor. The court also said workers must be paid for some of the time spent waiting at stations to receive and return equipment.

Even supposed “evil probusiness conservative lapdogs” Roberts, Scalia, and Thomas saw through this crap. I suppose these companies would like to consider the time a person waits for the next item to come down the line unpaid leave. As the post title states, this ruling saves Tyson and similar companies, who should have been embarrassed at the idea of trying to defend themselves over these practices, from their own stupid selves.

One Precinct, One Visit, One Voter’s Perspective (The Ballot That Almost Ate the Voting Booth)

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 3:05 pm

I just went and voted. There are a couple of normally dull but this time very heated races in our area for Kings School Board (8 running for 3 seats) and Deerfield Township Trustee (9 or 10 running for 2). There was a cool web site that had video presentations made by each candidate. Those plus some “don’t vote for this person” advice from elsewhere made me reasonably informed going in. Otherwise I would have had to punt.

Turnout at my precinct was above June’s and August’s but looks like it will be below Blackwell’s 41% statewide prediction. This precinct, I was told, has a lots of renters, apparently (which suprises me–maybe we need to have a ballot issue on drawing precinct lines), and therefore lower-than-average turnout.

My reaction to the ballot language in the booth: What a monster, and all because of Issues 1-5. The text area must have been 3-4 times wider than normal. I have not seen anything like it in the 30 years I have been voting, and the poll workers I talked to don’t recall seeing anything like it in their lifetimes. If it were any wider, they would have had to bring in wider booths.

I suspect a lot of voters who come in less than prepared will take one look at the monster and hit it with 5 quick “no” votes. The visceral logic of such a decision really isn’t that bad: If you need that much space for ballot language, it must be too complicated for the real world. We’ll see.

French Riots–DKos Poll Asks If They Are Bush’s Fault

Filed under: News from Other Sites — Tom @ 9:14 am

Though it’s not exactly rocket science, I did make this predictive comment over the weekend:

I’m waiting for someone to blame our Iraq involvement for radicalizing Muslims in Europe, who before that were of course placid as lambs.

Here it is (HT EU Rota and LGF):

(Poll Question at Daily Kos) Did Bush’s actions in Iraq lead to the general attitude that these youth have or is this solely the fault of France?

Early results apparently had Bush near 50%, but as of 9AM ET Bush is down to 10%. I have to wonder whether the bigwigs a DKos are multiclicking the poll, because they must know how embarrassing it is that someone is even asking the question.

Positivity: Legendary Musician Pete Fountain Plans Comeback After Katrina

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 6:14 am

Musicians, including one legend, are rallying to revive the city (HT Happy News):