November 8, 2005

Ohio Issues 1-5: Key Counties, and What to Watch for

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 4:12 pm

NOTE: I will liveblog the returns on Issues 1-5 beginning at about 7:30 PM Tuesday.

The Secretary of State (SOS) predicts 41% turnout (roughly 3.2 million) of Ohio 7.7 million registered voters. So the quick take is that any issue that can round up a little more than 1.6 million votes will win.

All eyes will presumably be on the SOS web site Tuesday night (link is probably not the official results page that will be used Tuesday night), as will mine a fair percentage of the time. But I’m also going to be looking throughout the evening after the polls close at 13 key counties for early clues.

Those counties, linked, and what to watch for, are these:

  • Cuyahoga (link is to results page; issues need to carry by wide margins with heavy turnout to offset other areas)
  • Stark (link is to BOE home page; Canton’s county–an issue needs a 10% or so margin with high turnout here to have a good chance of passing)
  • Mahoning and Summit (links are to results pages; Youngstown’s and Akron’s counties–same situation as Stark-Canton)
  • Franklin (link is to BOE home page; any issue not carrying here will not be looking good for statewide passage; any issue trailing here especially in trouble if turnout is high)
  • Hamilton (BOE home page; any issue trailing by less than 10% here, has a good chance of succeeding statewide. Heavy turnout of expected antis very important here.)
  • Lucas (BOE home page; as in Cuyahoga, issues need to win big here for statewide success; effect, if any, of The Blade’s opposition to Issue 2 will be interesting to see)
  • Warren and Clermont (results pages in both cases; any issue with about 40% in either of these heavy-GOP counties has a high chance of passing statewide)
  • Jefferson (BOE home page; this is Steubenville’s county; supporters need a win here; any issue that doesn’t win will be in trouble statewide)
  • Ashland (BOE home page; any issue ahead here should do well statewide)
  • Montgomery (link is to a list of results dates, including 11/8/05; any issue needs to win this county to do well statewide)
  • Darke (link is to a list of results dates; this county, on the western middle edge of the state, is my bellwether candidate–I believe that any issue winning here will win statewide, and any issue that fails here won’t win statewide)

Athens County would be a great bellwether, as high-margin passage there might indicate heavy OU student turnout, and by extension heavy student turnout statewide. Oops–The county BOE doesn’t have a web site (zheesh). I wanted Wayne County for the same reason as Ashland, but they don’t have a site either. Lorain County has almost 300,000 residents but no web site for the BOE–very weak.

A list of all Ohio county boards of elections and, where applicable, their web addresses is here.

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