Just Wondering….
Do you think that Jean Schmidt’s celebrated one-minute speech on the House floor Friday increases or decreases her chances of receiving active support from George W. Bush, “Evil Genius” Karl Rove, and the national GOP in her re-election campaign? (Duh)
In case anyone cares–Contrary to the beliefs of some, I have not taken a position on whether she should receive the GOP nomination again in the May 2 Republican primary 160-whatever days from now.
UPDATE: Go to the cartoon post for updates on the Schmidt he-said, she-said situation. Go here for the transcript of Bill Cunningham’s November 22 interview of her. Go here for “One More Look at All This Schmidt.”
UPDATE 2: An apparent partial answer: Schmidt has been asked to go, and will go, to Iraq early next year (HT Project Logic).
I think her speech increases the likelyhood that she will be unopposed in the primary.
Comment by LargeBill — November 20, 2005 @ 5:21 pm
Between this and the Hackett affair, the 2nd is the most nationally covered congressional district in the country.
Jean’s in in a walk in the Primary and won’t need any help for the general.
Look at it in terms of an opposing politician. If you were thinking of running an office, does she strike you as an easy mark or the kind of person who would love to campaign you right into the ground? Given this and her past history, it’s going to be awhile before anyone gives her a serious challenge.
Comment by dave — November 20, 2005 @ 11:18 pm
I agree with the first two comments.
Comment by Eric Kephas — November 21, 2005 @ 12:15 am
The Nation Republican Party won’t allow the 2nd District to go Democratic, lest they allow the liberal MSM and the leftists Dems (I know…redundant) use the loss as a ‘canary in the coal mine’ indicator of ‘Bush’s failed policy in Iraq’.
Comment by Porkopolis — November 21, 2005 @ 11:36 am
#4, Bullseye. I was thinking more of the primary than the general, but I think your point applies to the primary too. Attila the Hun could beat her in the primary, and the MSM would try to turn that person into a turtle dove.
Comment by TBlumer — November 21, 2005 @ 12:08 pm
This all sounds like a lot of wishfull thinking. I’d bet good money that the beltway leadership will stay out of a primary. They already invested half a mill defending Schmidt. She’s in, now she’s got to prove that she can stay in.
Both Brinkman and McEwen are salivating over the 2nd. Brinkman is wounded. McEwen isn’t. I’d be VERY surprised if he stays out. But… what do I know? If Schmidt’s team can spin this into a good thing with the local Party movers and shakers, then maybe they can strong arm McEwen.
Right now while it feeds the fringe, it can’t be good for business to have WAR ALL THE TIME be the be all and end all of the Republican Party. It’s a lower issue for Republicans at the best of times. Schmidt was doing good with fiscal responsibility. Now that’s all gone. She’s framed around Iraq and nothing else. That can’t be seen as desirable, no matter how noble you think the cause.
Comment by Editor — November 21, 2005 @ 1:18 pm
#6, Para 1 & 2: Now THAT’S wishful thinking. McEwen has three wounds, otherwise known as “three losses spread over 12 years.”
Para 3, you can argue “fringe” all you want, I call it “the majority of all voters.” Reference: Nov. 2004, reference 11/18/2005’s 403-3 vote. Schmidt’s framing around the war is a dream come true for her, and for better or worse, will give her the ability to get away with making a fiscal mistake or two.
Comment by TBlumer — November 21, 2005 @ 1:35 pm
State Rep. Danny Bubp just disputed Mean Jean’s comments. He said he never referred to Rep. Murtha by name, and would never call a fellow Marine a coward.
Mean Jean better hope she’s not defined by Iraq. That could be her biggest albatross yet.
Comment by CincyJeff — November 22, 2005 @ 12:39 am
#8, see my update at the cartoon post:
http://www.bizzyblog.com/?p=875
Comment by TBlumer — November 22, 2005 @ 12:54 pm