Voting with Our Feet, Part 2: It’s the Taxes, Stupid
NOTE: Though this post is specifically about the Greater Cincinnati area, I believe that similar posts could be written about population trends in other metro areas around the nation.
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A couple of weeks ago, I reacted to and commented on a blogpost by Jeff Sinnard, who ran for Congress as a Democrat in Ohio’s 2nd District special election and lost to Paul Hackett, who ultimately lost to Republican Jean Schmidt.
Jeff is a reasonable guy, and had a reasonable post about how Hamilton County’s commissioners had “fired” (if this is properly using the word “fire”) all but one of the volunteer members of a Tax Levy Review Committee (TLRC), whose primary assigned task was to keep tabs on overall tax increase requests and make sure that in total they weren’t outpacing general inflation. The trouble, regardless of how you see the politics, is that they failed to do that:
The result: a 7.7 percent increase in 2005 property taxes.
Hamilton County has the third-highest tax bill when compared to Southwest Ohio and other large, urban Ohio counties, something that encourages people to leave, Heimlich and DeWine believe.
Jeff was wondering how members of an “independent” committee can get terminated, and it’s a legitimate concern, though I’ll point out that “independent” outside auditors like Ernst & Young or the unfairly-departed Arthur Andersen (read first item at post), who are considered “independent” even though they are paid by their client companies, often get fired by those same clients.
The much bigger question is whether high taxes “encourage people to leave.” Well, look at these total population statistics:
Hamilton County (000s) –
1970 - 924
1980 - 873
1990 - 866
July 1, 1994 - 873 (peak population year in the 1990s)
Apr. 1, 2000 - 845
July 1, 2004 - 815
Greater Cincinnati Metro Area (000s) –
(Metro Cincy including Northern Ky.; Hamilton-Middetown; Total)
1970 - 1,442; na; na
Apr. 1, 1980 - 1,467; 259; 1,726 (link is to a PDF, go to Page 72)
Apr. 1, 1990 - 1,526; 292; 1,818 (same PDF link as 1980)
July 1, 1997 - 1,607; 327; 1,934 (same PDF link as 1980)
2004 - na; na; 2,039
Hamilton County’s population declined steeply during the 1970s, stabilized during the next 14 years, and has declined dangerously (roughly 7%) since then. Meanwhile, during this entire period, the population of the whole region has moved inexorably upward.
Why is that? The usual culprits (as long as the areawide economy is stable or growing, which it generally has been) are crime, education, and taxes. Cincinnati (Hamilton County’s county seat) has had big problems with all three, but I don’t have any reason to think that crime or education have been big negatives in the rest of Hamilton County, at least until very recently. So all things being equal, you would expect those leaving Cincinnati (the subject of a future post) because of proximity alone to move elsewhere within Hamilton County.
But they haven’t. It’s difficult to reach a conclusion other than that people have in essence voted with their feet to leave Hamilton County for the one reason that remains: Taxes. The TLRC’s failure to do its job has hurt the county. The “firings” were justified. The tax-and-spend trend has to be reversed, or the exodus will continue.
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Nov. 26 Wizbang Weekend Carnival participant.
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Other “vote with our feet” posts:
- Part 1: What Thanksgiving Is Partially About
- Part 3: Walking Away from Academic Excellence
- Part 4: Leaving Cincinnati (and Other Ohio Cities)
- Part 5: Willisms Looks at State Migration Patterns
- Part 6: Losing the Very Rich









