I don’t deny that housing is a factor, as has been the building of the interstate highways to make moving out and driving in more feasible.

And I agree that taxes is third as a factor in the city, well behind crime and schools.

There are a lot of people (apartment dwellers, seniors) who might be interested in a central city lifestyle because of proximity and convenience over lots of space, but many don’t consider moving into the city because of the crime. And it’s more than perception, given the death toll and a lot of other pretty bad comparative crime stats.

You suggest 4 motivators for City flight.

Overall economy in the metro area

I suggest it goes beyond overall economy. This is the argument that happens at the national level. The GDP looks great ergo the economy is great. I believe a closer look is warranted. You need to take a kitchen table approach to economics not a macroeconomic, ivory tower, and mile high view. What sectors of the economy are hot? Where are the jobs and more importantly what are the shifts in employment. Generally manufacturing is down and service industries are up. These new service jobs can easily relocate into the suburban counties. You hit on something in the inertia. Once you overcome that inertia physical distance is not such a factor. If you go to the trouble of moving you want a shiny new space.

Schools

Not much argument here. The City schools are not everything they should be.

Crime

Perception is everything. Look at the recent council and Mayor’s race. Crime. Crime. Crime. I think there is good news to be found if you look for it, but you don’t here about it. (I almost sound like a Republican with that statement :) )

Taxes

I remain unconvinced this is such a big deal. In the scope of all taxes, the differences in municipal tax rates fades pretty quickly.

I think you missed one major factor.

Housing

As was mentioned in the previous post, I think a lot of this is driven by some peoples desire to build their own McMansion. The outer ring counties’ got huge… tracts of land.

If I were to go back to school for to get a masters degree in Planning I think my thesis would be on the idea that inner Cities are the Social Darwinian equivalent to Charles Darwin’s actual The Darwin figured out that coral atolls have their strange circular shape because coral begins growing around an island, then as the island erodes or subsides the coral continues to grow upward leaving a ring. Stephen Jay Gould talks about this in his book, Hen’s Teeth and Horse’s Toes.

I digress. In conclusion, I think you make some good points. I just think you over emphasize the role of taxes. The City of Cincinnati and all cities need to work on this problem. I just don’t think futzing around with taxes should be the priority.

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