The Polls from Nowhere Are Officially NO GOOD (and Look Who’s “Using” Them)
The time has come to declare that the “polls from nowhere” numbers relating to Ohio’s US Senate race that I referred to on Monday afternoon, and which I reminded everyone about yesterday, are officially bogus, garbage, and rubbish.
No detailed polling with underlying support have been released to back up what was claimed.
No one has come forward with links or documents, or even named a source for the information.
So they are off the table as something worthy of discussion, or recognition, PERIOD. Spread the word.
Voters will have decide between the candidates on their merits and demerits, not on any kind of perception of who has what momentum or where each candidate stands in some mythical poll. Imagine that — that’s kind of refreshing.
But I’m not through dealing with how this disinformation is making the rounds, and how it is being mishandled. Stay tuned during the rest of the evening for more on that. You will be amazed, to say the least.
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UPDATE, 8 PM: I will say, some of the responses to the posts on this topic have been funny.
One such person who, LIKE ALL OF US, doesn’t have access to the data, only access to an apparent rumor-spreader, had the nerve to say that “I stand behind my statement ….. that poll numbers continue to show Smith narrowing the gap with DeWine.” -A- What’s there to “stand behind” except an unsupported assertion? I can hit numbers on a dartboard, call those numbers a “poll,” and make the same claim. -B- What does “narrowing the gap” mean? From what to what? 50 points to 49?
UPDATE, 8:15 PM: Now let’s go back about 6 weeks ago to something Buckeye State Blog (BSB) reminded me of (link is to the related BSB post):
I got a similar tip back in March.
It showed Mike DeWine 41%, Bill Pierce 26%.
My source burned me on a different tip later on (that Blackwell was dropping out) so I agree these polls are bogus BS.
Bill Pierce and those following him on the campaign did the following with the 41-26 poll — absolutely nothing, because it was nothing more than a rumor from who knows where for who knows what reason. WoMD did note the existence of the BSB post but said, “there is an awful lot we don’t know about this poll or this race,” and that’s where it stopped. The candidate, as you would expect, ignored it.
UPDATE, 8:30 PM: Contrast this with how another candidate is handling the latest bogus poll info.
BizzyBlog has obtained an e-mail from someone who spoke with David Smith earlier this week about how he is doing in the polls. I am supremely confident of the authenticity of the e-mailer and what is being said. Here it is:
I was talking to David Smith and in the conversation I asked him “do you register in the polls” (I, not having a clue) he said Oh, yes, but not a public poll…. it’s a private party poll, (he replied kind of on the sly) there’s only a 10 point spread between DeWine and me.” He saw the bewildered look on my face that was saying “why is this not to be known?”
Why not indeed? If you REALLY had supportable polling information showing that you’re so close, would you not be running to The Plain Dealer, The Dispatch, The Enquirer (okay, maybe not them), and every other daily newspaper in the state screaming “we’re close, we’re close!” Of course you would. But instead, the candidate himself is attempting to play the impressionable with “inside” double-secret information in an attempt to get votes he can’t otherwise earn. Mr. Smith, put up or shut time passed 2-1/2 hours ago. Since no one has put up, you know what you get to do.
Add this to the very thick file called “Things David Smith doesn’t want you to know,” which of course includes this inconvenient “Fact Sheet,” which among other things, lists his three runs for Congress in three states in a 3-year period — the page that can only be accessed if you know the exact URL (i.e., it’s not linked from anywhere else on Mr. Smith’s site as of 8:45 this evening).
UPDATE, 9:20 PM: So do we have any idea where the bogus polling data is coming from? BSB, the person who reported the “Blackwell is dropping out” rumor based on what he thought was supposedly a reliable source two weeks after he relayed the DeWine-41, Pierce-26 rumor, says the following:
The easiest way to disprove these numbers are to look at the FEC filings of the candidates. See if anyone paid for a poll (they usually start out at about $20k or so) - if a media org did it, it would be published.
The only folks who may have done a poll and are keeping it under wraps is the RNC or Ohio GOP or NRSC and I cant imagine they would waste their money polling this race.
I can tell you that the two challengers aren’t in a position to spend even half the amount cited. I’m also not going to look through DeWine’s 761-page FEC filing (I’m not kidding), because I don’t think he’d be foolish enough to pay for a poll and leave it out there in relatively broad daylight.
And just because the various “R” groups above probably wouldn’t waste their money actually polling the race, that doesn’t mean that they can’t put effort into disrupting it by pretending that polls exist. I’d be inclined not to believe they’d care about doing that except for three things:
- The totally bogus Blackwell dropout rumor in late March. BSB got played, and by someone in a position to play him.
- Well, if one of the “R” groups would do that, why wouldn’t they mess with people’s heads about Senate polls that don’t exist? That’s relatively easy.
- Don’t forget the Columbus Town Hall post back in March that was up, then down, then up, then down. Remember what it was about? You know what they say about what there is when you see smoke…..
So based on all of this, I’m simply not in a position to discredit the idea that some incumbent-defending “R” group is behind all of this, and we’ll just have to leave it, effective RIGHT NOW, at the point that nobody knows for sure where the polling garbage came from (note past tense). And, because the ultimatum wasn’t met, for the next 5-1/2 days until the election where it all came from won’t matter, because it has all been officially discredited.
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The Smithian Chronicles:
- April 26 — Man, Is THIS Tiresome (Smith Campaign Illegal Signs Continue, and Worse)
- April 11 — David Smith: NOW He Tells Us (on March 28), Then He Hides It (on April 10)
- April 11 — Here Are Actual “Signs†That the Smith Campaign Doesn’t Understand Campaign Law — Or Highway Safety
- April 6 — David Smith: NOW He Tells Us (â€Deceiving From the Very Start†Edition)
- April 6 — David Smith: NOW He Tells Us (Fulton County Obfuscation Edition)
- April 3 — David Smith: NOW He Tells Us (Utah “Busted†Edition) — Smithbots Alert
- March 30 — David Smith: NOW He Tells Us (Utah “Busted†Edition)
- March 30 — David Smith: NOW He Tells Us
- March 23 — David Smith and the FEC
- March 23 — The Disappearing and Reappearing Columbus Townhall Forum Post
- March 22 — In the Ohio GOP US Senate Primary, David Smith Hasn’t Dropped Out, and Should — SOON
