We’ve Always Been “Running Out” of Energy Sources; We’re Always Finding More
Kevin Roeten recounts a bit of history of energy estimates. It’s a good thing folks in those eras didn’t believe the estimates, or doubt their ability to find alternatives, or they might have stopped developing and growing, as today’s Peak Oil advocates would have us do (HT Right Winged):
Many believe in M.K. Hubbert’s theory of “peak oil.†It says that production will peak and then decline while demand increases. Proponents theorize that oil is a fossil fuel from decaying forests and dinosaurs, and we are running out. But another theory argues that the science of oil is an “abiotic†(lifeless) natural product that the earth generates on a constant basis, and may well be a renewable resource.
To predict a correct theory is difficult at best. But recorded data is as follows:
- 1885; U.S. Geologic Survey — “Little or no chance of oil in California.â€
- 1891; U.S. Geologic Survey — Same prophesy for Kansas and Texas.
- 1914; U.S. Bureau of Mines — Total future production limit of 5.7 billion barrels of oil; at most a 10-year supply remaining.
- 1939; Dept. of Interior — Oil reserves in the United States exhausted in 13 years.
- 1951; Oil and Gas Division — Oil reserves to be exhausted in 13 years.
- 2005; Energy Information Administration — proven worldwide reserves of oil at 1.28 trillion barrels.
Message to Peak Oilers (not that you’ll listen): Don’t worry. Be happy.
The Peak Oil crowd could not be happy without something for us to worry about. The latest spin is what an ecological disaster oil shale extraction will be.
Comment by triticale — May 3, 2006 @ 12:25 pm
#1, of course, touching Mother Earth in any way is an unconscionable sin.
Comment by TBlumer — May 3, 2006 @ 12:56 pm