WELCOME to Dr. Sanity readers, and thanks to Ms. “Learned Economic Helplessness” for the link! For another example of the press downplaying good economic news, go here to see how the AP treated the announcement that the final 1st Quarter economic growth rate was 5.6%.
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Payroll-processing and employee-benefits giant ADP does its own monthly survey on employment levels, which it releases two days ahead of the official government report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I didn’t know that, but since their July report is only the third one they’ve issued, I don’t feel too bad. Now I know, and they’re blogrolled.
Their report is based on a survey of ADP clients, who happen to employ one of every six people in the USA. Read ADP’s “why it’s needed” FAQ, and I believe you’ll agree that it looks like a potentially promising addition to the data bank.
If the survey proves to be reliable, it will be a great attention-getting business move by ADP. In fact, the report’s July 5 release for the month of June is making major waves:
US private sector adds 368,000 jobs in June - survey
U.S. private sector employers created an estimated 368,000 jobs in June, compared with 122,000 jobs in the previous month, a report by a private employment service said on Wednesday.
The monthly ADP National Employment Report is based on payroll data and measures the change in in total nonfarm employment each month.
The report is released each month, two days before the government’s own job survey of a net gain in nonfarm jobs in the U.S. private and public sectors.
“These findings indicate a strong acceleration of employment in June,” said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, said in a statement. Macroeconomic Advisers developed the ADP report together with ADP Employer Services.
He separately told Reuters that private sector jobs growth in June was “broad-based”, averaging around 218,000 over the last six months. “I’m pretty confident that jobs growth on Friday would be healthy and I wouldn’t be surprised if it shows an acceleration.”
The interesting comparison will of course be to the BLS report when it’s released at 8:30 Friday morning.
There is one downside if ADP’s report proves to be consistently reliable — It will give the economic naysayers at The Associated Press and others in the business press more time to either work up their “yeah, but” verbiage designed to downplay good news, or to badmouth “the Bush economy” if the news isn’t good, in advance of the official numbers from the BLS. If ADP’s June employment growth figure is accurate, the business press’s “yeah, but” creativity will be sorely tested Friday morning.
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UPDATE: Now here’s something that’s really interesting:

As you’ll see if you go to the link, ADP has apparently been tracking the data internally for years without releasing it.
As to the table above — After being at the same place as BLS at the end of January, ADP’s reported employment levels were greater than BLS’s by 273,000 by the end of May. If (very big if) ADP’s methodology picks up employment-level changes more quickly and accurately than the BLS does, Friday’s BLS report, which will also revise its April and May numbers, could be a real eye-popper.
UPDATE 2: MarketWatch reports that “Before the ADP data was released, economists expected a gain of about 160,000 jobs.”
UPDATE 3: Larry Kudlow weighs in — “….. the demand-siders continue their doom and gloom. They’ve predicted four or five growth pauses in the last three years, as the economy shrugged off their pessimism and roared ahead. They have been wrong over and over again. And all signs suggest they will continue to be wrong.”