Lieberman-Lamont Gut Reactions

Now that Lieberman has lost (by 4%) and has vowed to run as an independent, a few observations and predictions:

• The WORMs (Worn-Out Reactionary Media, known to most as The [formerly] Mainstream Media), will try to spin this as a turning point for the country’s antiwar and anti-Bush true believers. I too think that the antiwar left will end up savoring Lamont’s victory and will remember it fondly for many years to come — but as their high-water mark.
• The Nutmeg State is not congenitally allergic to independents, as opposed to, say, Ohio, where any independent run is virtually doomed from the start. I believe that Lieberman running as an Independent in November will win, as did Lowell Weicker in 1990 as a former Republican Gubernatorial Primary loser turned Independent.
• Lamont’s antiwar base came out for the primary, as they will for the general. But I believe very few antiwar folks DIDN’T vote, i.e., Lamont will have to move beyond the intense antiwar rhetoric to have a chance, or you can almost copy-paste his vote total tonight into November. Previous attempts by Lamont to move beyond antiwar stump speeches during the primary (e.g., harshly criticizing Wal-Mart while owning its stock [HT David Drake], and clearly knowing of their “objectionable” business practices; and Halliburton [!] before that) were nearly catastrophic during the primary.
• From here, it appears that Lieberman is the one with JoeMentum. He was 13 points down (some believe it was even more) a week ago, narrowed it to less than 4 in the final result, and committed no blunders. Lamont didn’t seem as cute and cuddly tonight as he did just a short time ago. In fact, throw in a couple more missteps like the Wal-Mart/Halliburton hypocrisies and some improvement in conditions in the Middle East, and he could end up doing a shocking fade. If Lamont is polling poorly in mid-October, watch out — the recriminations will be nasty.
• Like Schmidt-Hackett here in Ohio’s Second District last year, where the focused antiwar left almost pulled off the upset, the entire country was watching only one race tonight. The pro-Lamont crowd will not be able to replicate the energy of the past 2 months. Paul Hackett wasn’t able to replicate it in Ohio in his abortive Senate run, which is why the party establishment, with the acquiescence of his so-called “friends” in the lefty blogosphere brutally threw him under the bus.
• Democrat politicians in competitive districts who take tonight’s result as a signal to run on an immediate-withdrawal plank in November will be walking straight into a Karl Rove rat trap. Most who try it will regret it.
• This is too much to hope for, but to drive the left absolutely crazy, Connecticut’s Republican Senatorial primary winner or nominee (who? That’s my point) ought to withdraw. If that happens, it’s Lieberman by at least 60-40 in the general. Y’know, if the Dems can pull stunts like 2002’s Torricelli/Lautenberg switch in New Jersey and the widow Carnahan gambit in 2000, why not?

Of course, we’ll just have to see, won’t we? That’s why they hold the elections.

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UPDATE, Aug. 9: I’m not inclined to look around for the reax right now because of site admin issues, but it’s going to be interesting to see the lefty blogosphere claim credit for Lamont’s victory when Lamont (falsely) claimed to have little association with or knowledge of blogs or bloggers after the “Lieberman in Blackface” controversy last week.