That’s Wide Awakes Radio.

I will be on from 7-9 PM ET (4-6 PT) with Matt and Mark of Weapons of Mass Discussion, who are filling in for Justin at Right on the Right.

Potential Topics: Reutergate (known to some as Reutersgate), related press misdeeds of the past week, useful idiot Mike Wallace, Tuesday’s primaries, the economy, eminent domain, and the recently passed pension bill, which despite the snooze factor, has some important things in it that everyone should know about. The show WILL have at least a few personally valuable takeaway tips, so tune in.

The call-in number is 888-407-1776.

In fact, “May Not Be” should likely read “Probably Aren’t” –

(Caro, MI) — Three Middle Eastern Men Found With 1000 Cell Phones

Around 1:00am August 11th three men purchased cell phones from the Wal-Mart store on M-81 near the corner of M-24 in Caro. Wal-Mart places a limit on the number of cell phones that can be purchased at once, that number is three. The three men allegedly bought 80 by purchasing them three at time so that an alert wouldn’t be triggered by the cash register. They also paid cash.

An alert clerk grew suspicious and called Tuscola County central dispatch. The Caro Police Department sent a unit and stopped the rented van on M-81 just east of Caro. The suspects were headed towards Bad Axe on M-81 where there is another Super Wal-Mart.

The three men were described as being of Pakistani descent but live in Texas. Police say the three, ages 19, 22, and 23 appear to be naturalized citizens. One man was driving while the other two were in the back opening the phone packages with box cutters throwing the phones in one box, batteries in another and the packaging and phone charger in another container. The suspects had 1000 other cell phones in the van. There was also a bag of receipts showing that someone was in Wisconsin the day before.

(Grafton, WV) — Local Links to Terrorist Arrests

Last week, the Grafton police pulled over 24-year-old Hashem Sayed for a routine traffic stop. But what they found in his car was far from routine. Patrolman Daniel Laymon recalls the scene, “There were multiple cell phones, roughly 150 to 200 cell phones from multiple retailers,” he said.

Buying that many pre-paid phones is not a crime, but the police say it is unusual.

Less than a week later, the authorities in Marietta, Ohio, arrested 20-year-old Osma Sabhi Abulhassan and 20-year-old Ali Houssaiky. Washington County Sheriffs deputies seized several pre-paid cell phones and thousands of dollars in cash. Because of the incidents, Grafton police believe the events are connected.

Gee, y’think?

What ISN’T being detected by local law enforcement?

Normally, I wouldn’t highlight a one-month report. But this one deserves attention (link is to actual Census Bureau report, before the business press gets its spinning hands on it), because it basically blows the “slowing economy” meme out of the water:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $367.9 billion, an increase of 1.4 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month and up 4.8 percent (±0.8%) from July 2005. Total sales for the May through July 2006 period were up 5.9 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2006 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent (±0.7%)* to -0.4 percent (± 0.2%).

Retail trade sales were up 1.5 percent (±0.7%) from June and were 4.5 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 19.2 percent (±2.0%) from July 2005 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 15.6 percent (±4.5%) from last year.

The report ignores inflation. After taking a month of inflation away, we’re left with a very impressive REAL increase (before subsequent revisions to come, of course) of just over 1% — in one month.

So of course the “yeah, but” reaction (link requires free registration) is that inflation is on the march, and that it’s only a one-month blip:

“Any sign that the U.S. economy is more robust than expected will, of course, bring the [Federal Reserve] back into play,” said Stu Hoffman, chief economist for PNC.

Other economists, however, said the longer forecast looks for weaker consumer spending. “Retailing is holding up quite well, but we expect a sustained slowing over the next few months,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics.

The inflation concern is real, but it’s because of what the Fed isn’t doing, not because retail sales had a one-month spike (see update below). As to the predicted “sustained slowing,” my reaction is: Blip, schmip. Normally, unless sales have been very volatile, the more important numbers to focus on, and which are usually not reported, are the year-over-year number for quarterly overall sales, monthly overall retail sales, and monthly retail trade sales, which in July’s case above are 5.9%, 4.8% and 4.5%, respectively. All of those key percentages are well above inflation, which means that real growth in retail sales has been taking place over a sustained period. There’s no reason (yet) to think it won’t continue.
__________________________

UPDATE: I said “good news,” not “Pollyanna News” — Don Luskin’s Smart Money column today correctly criticizes Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for NOT raising interest rates on Tuesday. Luskin believes that harsh tightening to prevent inflation will inevitably be required because of failure to apply the brakes gently now, and he genuinely fears a recession. I would argue that Bernanke has time to make up for Tuesday’s omission. The markets’ reaction to the non-hike should sober Ben up bigtime. I’d be surprised if the Fed doesn’t raise rates at least two more times before the end of the year. In fact, I wouldn’t rule out a half-point kick in the pants, instead of the normal quarter-point, to get everyone’s attention.

Lost in the noise of doctored photos, staged photos, staged filmings, thwarted attacks, useful idiot interviews, and political hit pieces disguised as objective journalism, is a monstrously large pension “reform” bill that somewhat lives up to its name. It has passed both Houses of Congress, and the President has said he will sign shortly.

Late last week, The Wall Street Journal, in a subscription-only piece, did a pretty good job of analyzing the high and low points of the legislation. After an agendized intro, it dug into the meat:

….. The current bill is an attempt to speed ….. (a) new era of individual responsibility along, as well as clean up the mess that Congress has made “guaranteeing” private pensions.

(The bill will) help individuals become smarter investors. For example, the bill would permit employers to retain financial advisers to provide investment counsel. This would seem to be Investing 101, but liberals and lawyers objected for years on grounds that Fidelity or Vanguard might steer employees to their own funds. Well, so what? It sure beats having employees pile all their cash into company stock, a la Enron. And as long as employees have a variety of investment choices, getting advice on diversification, or the right mix of stocks and bonds depending on age, is a big step forward.

Let’s stop there for a moment. The advice idea is good on paper; after all, a lot of people frankly don’t know what they’re doing, and make poor investment choices within their employer’s plan(s). But as much as in-company advice is needed, I wish that the legislation contained an ironclad prohibition against a financial adviser talking about any of his or her other services outside the sponsoring company’s retirement plans — yep, even if asked. And before you cry “freedom of speech,” remember that the adviser has been engaged to speak to or consult with employees about the company’s benefit plans ONLY. Discussion of other services and handling employees’ outside money has a great potential for adviser abuse and unavoidable legal exposure for employers. If an adviser leads the employee into risky outside investments that don’t pan out, even as a result of subsequent off-premises meetings, the employee is going to remember who made the introduction. I don’t see how employers can make employees sign any kind of waiver that could eliminate this problem.

Moving on:

The bill will also let companies automatically enroll workers in a retirement plan unless the employees choose not to join — which given human nature means higher participation in 401(k)s. The bill also makes permanent the higher annual IRA contribution limits that passed in 2001 but were set to expire in 2010. And, for the first time, Americans could direct part of their federal tax refund directly into an IRA.

The bill also has a provision, noted in this article from another source, giving employers the ablity to increase automatic contribution percentages in the earlier years of employment:

(The bill permits) automatic escalation of contributions. The goal is to set aside 3 percent of compensation by the end of the first year, 4 percent in year two, 5 percent in year three and 6 percent thereafter.

The previous two excerpts represent the good news. Of course the “permanence” means that it will take legislation to change things, but it’s an improvement over the ticking clock that has been in effect for most of the past 5 years.

Here are the specific takeaways, all of which take advantage of the “if you don’t see it, you won’t spend it” mentality:

• If you or anyone you know is automatically enrolled in a 401(k) at the beginning of employment, DON’T undo the enrollment. Instead, figure out if you really should be contributing more than your employer signed you up for, and start figuring out how to invest it.
• If you decide to stick with the automatic contribution level and your employer does escalate them, let it happen. You’re (hopefully) getting annual pay raises, so you should normally be able to afford an increase in your contribution percentage.
• Seriously consider taking advantage of an automatic transfer of part or all of any federal tax refund you receive into an IRA.

I’m not clear yet as to whether any refund directed into an IRA will be considered a current year or next year contribution. Though it would be more advantageous, applying refund to the current tax year could be a difficult calculation without tax preparation software.

The rest of the legislation has to do with trying to fix the rickety Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), and to protect the traditional pension plans that the PBGC is supposed to be able to bail out if sponsoring employers go under. Though the bill’s provisions are horribly complex, but the bottom line is that Congress nibbled around the edges with a number of relatively small fixes and special favors without solving the real long-term funding problem in so many large-employer plans. Perhaps a growing economy and continued employer movement away from the traditional pension structure will prevent the train wreck many fear, but it’s more likely, as The Journal noted, that future Congresses are going to have to deal with the PBGC’s difficulties.

Free Links:

• No amount or variety of creative financing gimmicks at Ford and GM can make up for this:
  

  Japan’s Toyota Motor Corp. won top honors in eight categories of a closely watched vehicle dependability study, more than any other company, while mainstream brands closed in on luxury nameplates, J.D. Power and Associates said Wednesday.

  ….. For the study, Westlake Village, Calif.-based J.D. Power questions owners of three-year-old vehicles about problems they are experiencing. This year’s survey questioned 47,620 original owners of 2003 model-year cars and trucks.

  ….. Toyota had winners this year in eight of 19 vehicle categories, while Honda and GM each took four segments. Ford had two winners, and Mazda Motor Corp. had one.

  The problem is even worse than it looks, because Ford and GM have so many more product lines and nameplate entrants.

• I missed this in the cutover and general hubbub until now — As would be expected of a gutless bureaucracy, the FDIC has placed a six-month hold on applications from Wal-Mart, Home Depot, and others to run their own banks. I previously posted on the topic here (”The Banking System Could Use a ‘Threat’ Like Wal-Mart”) and here (4th item at link).

• Delta loses $2.2 billion — I do not see the company’s emergence from bankruptcy as a sure thing.

• Speaking of Ford, if it thinks its problems with Don Wildmon’s American Family Association are going away (noted previously here and here), they need to think again — 78 Dealers in Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas have written William Clay Ford a letter imploring the company “to take action to cease advertising in any controversial media” and stop “tacitly approving a controversial lifestyle or stance.” Look — the dealers are right in complaining that the AFA has singled out Ford when many of its competitors are doing similarly “controversial” things. I’ll even suggest that Wildmon is engaging in a bit of selective intimidation here. If Ford were in healthier condition, perhaps standing up to Wildmon would make sense. It does not please me to say this, but the company’s survival is clearly at stake. It simply cannot financially handle the serious hits it is taking from this battle, and it MUST consider its shareholders, employees, and dealers’ well-being. Bill Ford needs to figure out how to make peace with Wildmon, get the company back on its feet, and, if their moves are based on conviction and not knee-jerk political correctness, fight him on a level playing field later. Wildmon, with whom I often agree on values (but disagree strongly on tactics), needs to recognize that his cause will not be enhanced in the long run if he’s seen as the guy who selectively put tens of thousands of good people out of work and caused thousands of investors to lose billions of dollars — and that IS what it’s coming to.

• Unlike the previous situation, where Bill Ford has to worry about a lot of people besides himself, Paul Belien of The Brussels Journal blog only needs to get his family on board for his battle. Good thing — He’ll need to fight ultra-politically correct thought police in Belgium tooth and nail. The roots of his “problem” go back to his exposition and criticism of the European Union’s origins and development. The wedge the authorities are using to get at him is threatening prosecution over his and his wife’s home-schooling of their apparently quite accomplished children (NixGuy posted on this back in June). He is also accused, with the agreement of a “Catholic” priest, of having “racist” (read — not drenched in dhimmitude) posts on his site. Now the police want to bring him in for questioning based on anonymous complaint about his site. He’s not going. As noted, Paul only needs to answer to his family, and if they say “stand up to the bullies,” I say “give ‘em hell.”

• I knew the Michigan-Ohio rivalry was intense, but this statement is ridiculous — Kroger is moving some jobs from Livonia, MI (west of Detroit) to Delaware, OH (north of Columbus). The Michigan Teamsters union local at Livonia is not happy. Their spokesman Noah Oren is quoted as saying this:
  

  “We believe there are ways to explore how to make the Livonia warehouse more profitable rather than outsourcing good jobs to Ohio.”

  “Outsourcing”? To OHIO? As if The Buckeye State is a foreign country? Here’s a bit of geography for Michiganders — Delaware is in the same state (that would be O-H-I-O) where Kroger has its downtown Cincinnati headquarters roughly 120 miles away. If anything, Kroger is insourcing.

It relates to genetics, is preventative, and appears to be quite real (HT Good News Blog):

Scientists hail breast cancer breakthrough

AUSTRALIAN scientists have helped unearth the biggest breast cancer breakthrough in years - the first discovery of common genes linked to the disease.

An unpublished large-scale international study has made robust findings connecting two genes with a 10 per cent increased risk of breast cancer.
The breakthrough is being heralded as the biggest in the field of breast cancer genetics since the discovery of two high risk genes - BRAC1 and BRAC2 - in the 1990s.

Queensland Institute of Medical Research scientist Dr Georgia Chenevix-Trench will not divulge details of the genes until the details are published in a British journal later this year, but said the news was “extremely significant”.

“We’ve all been looking for a decade for common genes that contribute to breast cancer, and while there’s been a thousand claims in the literature, frankly none of them are really convincing,” Dr Chenevix-Trench told AAP.

“Finally people can now really believe there are common variants for this common disease - we’ve absolutely confirmed it.”

Researchers studied nine genes believed to have links to the disease and tested the claims on 40,000 women from Australia, Europe and the US, half who had breast cancer.

Results showed that two were clearly linked to increased risk.

The chance of women with these common genes developing the cancer was only 10 per cent compared with 60 per cent for the far rarer BRCA genes.

“So they’re not dramatic in their individual risk but because variants in these genes are quite common in the population, it could account for quite a lot of breast cancer,” Dr Chenevix-Trench said.

Once scientists have discovered a dozen more of these common genes associated with the disease, women carrying several of them could be at significant risk and tested accordingly.

Speaking ahead of her presentation to the International Congress of Human Genetics in Brisbane, the researcher said scientists had found the two major BRCA genes with relative ease.

But there had been a “decade of darkness” while they struggled to draw definitive results about more common genes with smaller risks.

….. Dr Chenevix-Trench, who is co-founder of the Kathleen Cunningham Foundation Consortium for research into Familial Breast cancer (kConFab), said she was impressed scientists had put aside egos for the greater cause of solid research.

“Here we’ve got 20 groups of researchers around the world that decided they didn’t need to compete and try to get the glory for themselves, albeit with a weak finding that’s not really believable,” she said.

“Instead they’re contributing to the common good for really robust findings that truly further our understanding.”