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	<title>Comments on: Existing-home Sales &#8220;Plunge,&#8221; But This Is NOT an &#8220;Implosion&#8221; (Updated for New-Home Sales)</title>
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	<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2006/08/24/existing-home-sales-plunge/</link>
	<description>The Business End of the Blogosphere</description>
	<pubDate>Sun, 23 Nov 2008 15:23:11 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: TBlumer</title>
		<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2006/08/24/existing-home-sales-plunge/#comment-27599</link>
		<dc:creator>TBlumer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 20:42:13 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>#1:
&lt;em&gt;I have been writing about this bubble from the beginning.&lt;/em&gt;

Unless I am misinterpreting, that sentence indicates a belief that, from the very beginning, the *bubble* was an inevitability, and now, that *this bubble* is an established fact.

The definition of a real estate bubble is here:
http://www.investordictionary.com/definition/real+estate+bubble.aspx

&lt;em&gt;A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). Unlike a stock market crash following a bubble, a real-estate *crash* is a slow process, because sellers just decide not to sell. Historically due to inflation, prices did not fall in nominal terms, rather they stayed *flat* for a period of 3-5 years. However, due to low inflation in most countries, future corrections may result in a fall in both real and nominal house values.&lt;/em&gt;

I do not like that definition, as I would expect declining prices to be characteristic of any kind of bubble.

But since I do not write dictionaries (yet :--&gt;), I will just say that even based on its criteria, there are two years until ANYONE, and that includes you, can declare that there has been real estate bubble.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#1:<br />
<em>I have been writing about this bubble from the beginning.</em></p>
<p>Unless I am misinterpreting, that sentence indicates a belief that, from the very beginning, the *bubble* was an inevitability, and now, that *this bubble* is an established fact.</p>
<p>The definition of a real estate bubble is here:<br />
<a href="http://www.investordictionary.com/definition/real+estate+bubble.aspx" rel="nofollow">http://www.investordictionary.com/definition/real+estate+bubble.aspx</a></p>
<p><em>A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic indicators, followed by decreases that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). Unlike a stock market crash following a bubble, a real-estate *crash* is a slow process, because sellers just decide not to sell. Historically due to inflation, prices did not fall in nominal terms, rather they stayed *flat* for a period of 3-5 years. However, due to low inflation in most countries, future corrections may result in a fall in both real and nominal house values.</em></p>
<p>I do not like that definition, as I would expect declining prices to be characteristic of any kind of bubble.</p>
<p>But since I do not write dictionaries (yet :&#8211;>), I will just say that even based on its criteria, there are two years until ANYONE, and that includes you, can declare that there has been real estate bubble.</p>
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		<title>By: rex</title>
		<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2006/08/24/existing-home-sales-plunge/#comment-27593</link>
		<dc:creator>rex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Aug 2006 19:56:38 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Just to set the record straight. 

I wrote this in May 2005: 
"Critics of the Fed have charged that its low interest rate policies are driving investors into real estate, fueling an unsustainable bubble in housing prices that could become a large drag on the economy if prices were to collapse."

Here's a quote from my Sept. 2004 report about a drop in home sales: "It is a correction from unsustainable levels," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.'
Heres' something I quoted in July 2004 about a drop in housing starts: "We're coming off some unsustainable numbers," said David Seiders, chief economist for the homebuilders. 

And here's a headline from a story I wrote on March 1, 2003: 
No housing bubble, Fed's Kohn says
In which I wrote: "Many critics have said the Fed's easy money policies are pushing home sales and prices too high, just as low rates in 1999 and 2000 encouraged investors to pump too much money into tech stocks in the Nasdaq. The economy is still recovering from that debacle nearly three years later."

There's more, but why bother? I've been writing about this bubble from the beginning.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just to set the record straight. </p>
<p>I wrote this in May 2005:<br />
&#8220;Critics of the Fed have charged that its low interest rate policies are driving investors into real estate, fueling an unsustainable bubble in housing prices that could become a large drag on the economy if prices were to collapse.&#8221;</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a quote from my Sept. 2004 report about a drop in home sales: &#8220;It is a correction from unsustainable levels,&#8221; said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.&#8217;<br />
Heres&#8217; something I quoted in July 2004 about a drop in housing starts: &#8220;We&#8217;re coming off some unsustainable numbers,&#8221; said David Seiders, chief economist for the homebuilders. </p>
<p>And here&#8217;s a headline from a story I wrote on March 1, 2003:<br />
No housing bubble, Fed&#8217;s Kohn says<br />
In which I wrote: &#8220;Many critics have said the Fed&#8217;s easy money policies are pushing home sales and prices too high, just as low rates in 1999 and 2000 encouraged investors to pump too much money into tech stocks in the Nasdaq. The economy is still recovering from that debacle nearly three years later.&#8221;</p>
<p>There&#8217;s more, but why bother? I&#8217;ve been writing about this bubble from the beginning.</p>
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