Luskin: The Thing to Worry About Is Inflation
This is another one of those “I wish Don Luskin was wrong” posts.
But, as usual, I don’t think he is.
The proprietor of PoorAndStupid.com makes two compelling cases in his latest Smart Money column — First, that the economy not only isn’t slowing down but isn’t about to anytime soon; and second, that the Fed, by not putting the brakes on now, has brought on a big risk that we will be plagued by an unacceptable level of inflation in the coming years:
What’s everyone so worried about? Take a look at the numbers. According to the Department of Commerce, in July, the last month for which figures are available, personal-consumption expenditures grew at a very healthy annualized pace of 10.2%. That’s a huge acceleration over the already healthy average 6.3% pace of the previous 12 months.What’s that in dollars? A lot. From June 2005 to June 2006, the U.S. consumer spent $9.2 trillion dollars — up $555 billion from the previous 12 months.
And where did the U.S. consumer get that extra $555 billion to spend? The old-fashioned way — he worked for it. Over that same period, disposable personal income grew by $550 billion.
….. Since the end of 2002, according to the Department of Commerce, annual energy expenses for the average household have gone up by $688. That’s a lot of money, to be sure, and the world would be a better place if somehow the average household didn’t have to spend it on gasoline, home heating, and so on.But over the same period, the disposable personal income of the average household has risen by $4,605. That’s enough to fill ‘er up, with an awful lot left over.
And what about debt? How often have we heard horror stories about how the U.S. consumer is up to his eyeballs in mortgage debt and credit-card debt? Sorry. You’ll have to find something else to be pessimistic about.
According to the Federal Reserve, since the beginning of 2003, the fraction of the typical household’s income that went to servicing mortgage debt did rise a little bit, from 9.7% to 11.1%. But the fraction that went to servicing credit-card debt went down, from 6.3% to 5.7%.
Overall, the fraction of household income that goes to servicing all the “must-pay” obligations that every family has — mortgage, credit cards, taxes, and so on — has stayed rock steady, rising almost imperceptibly from 18.4% to just 18.6%.
….. Want something real to worry about? Try this. Even though much of the data I’ve cited here comes from the Federal Reserve, the Fed subscribes to the myth that the economy is slowing because the U.S. consumer is in trouble, mostly because of the cooling housing market. So they’ve left interest rates unchanged at the last two FOMC meetings, including the most recent one last Wednesday.
That’s a problem. The economy isn’t slowing, and the consumer is not in trouble. With the economy continuing to boom, and rates on hold at the Fed, that’s a sure-fire formula for more inflation.
The Fed is going to realize that one of these days. And when they do, it will be too late. Then there will be nothing for the Fed to do but raise interest rates sky high. And then the consumer really will be in trouble — along with everyone else.
Ouch. The problem may simply be that Ben Bernanke is placing too much credence in the downbeat economic reporting of The 527 Media.









