October 19, 2006

Quote of the Day: Hugh Hewitt on Pre-Election Polls

Actually it was posted yesterday, but his question is astoundingly on point:

Now here’s my question: When, in the last two cycles of 2002 and 2004, has any national poll of standing shown a Republican to be ahead at this point in the race where that Republican in fact lost? (You can’t cite Zogby for this proposition, as the poll must generally be recognized as having at least a shred of credibility.) While poll after poll over these years have shown Democrats ahead who in fact lost, can you recall a race where polling put a GOP candidate ahead who in fact got smacked badly on election day?

Nope. And I’m trying. Anyone with a legit exception, throw it in the comments or e-mail me.

Over and above what Hewitt raised, there are Ohio pollsters’ special problems in getting it right, or even getting in the neighborhood (discussed here, here, and here) to consider.

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UPDATE: Dan Riehl (HT Instapundit) looks at 2002′s US Senate results vs. final polls and can’t find a single example that answers Hewitt’s question. EVERY ONE went further the in GOP direction, some by stunning amounts; one swing was 16 points.

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1 Comment

  1. [...] Actually it was posted yesterday, but his question is astoundingly on point: Now here’s my question: When, in the last two cycles of 2002 and 2004, has any national poll of standing shown a Republican to be ahead at this point in the race where that Republican in fact lost? (You can’t cite Zogby for this proposition, as the poll must generally be recognized as having at least a shred of credibility.) While poll after poll over these years have shown Democrats ahead who in fact lost, can you recall a race where polling put a GOP candidate ahead who in fact got smacked badly on election day? [...]

    Pingback by Why Do Polls Historically Show Dems Winning - And Then They Lose? « Colorado Right — October 19, 2006 @ 8:11 pm

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