Before November Report (since January 2002):
– Total increase in employment per the Household Survey (used as basis for the unemployment rate): 9,589,000
– Total increase in employment per the Establishment Survey (new jobs number typically reported as “the” result): 5,236,000
The prelims: – The ADP Employment Report for November came in at 158,000 net new jobs on Wednesday.
– This AP report from late last night pegged analyst expectations at 105,000.
– This Reuters report at Fox News had expectations at 110,000, and unemployment rate ticking up to 4.5%.
The actuals (Bureau of Labor Statistics press release is here):
- Unemployment rate: 4.5%
- Increase in total employment during November per the Household Survey: 277,000 (383,000 more were in the labor force, which is why the unemployment rate blipped up by 0.1%)
- Increase in employment during November per the Establishment Survey: 132,000
- Revisions to the previous months’ Establishment Surveys net new jobs numbers: October - minus 13,000 (from 92,000 to 79,000); September - plus 55,000 (from 148,000 to 203,000)
- Total increase in employment reported in the November Establishment survey: 174,000 (132 - 13 + 55)
With November Data (since January 2002):
- Total increase in employment per the Household Survey: 9,866,000 (985,000 in the last three months!)
- Total increase in employment per the Establishment Survey: 5,410,000
9:10 AM — Comment:
Pretty darn good report; certainly enough to head off the “recession vs. soft landing” worriers (better question: since when is the economy as a whole “falling” fast enough that the quality of the landing is even an issue?).
September’s job revision amazing. That month’s Establishment report employment increase originally came in at 51,000; it was revised last month to 148,000. The final revision to 203,000 means that September’s job growth was quadruple what was originally reported. That’s also troubling; what in the world caused the original number, which gave rise to some of the current talk of a slowdown, to be so low? As with last month’s upward revision, this latest one may mean that final GDP when it is released near the end of this month may come in a wee bit above its currently reported 2.2%.
The report shouldn’t set off alarm bells among the inflation worriers either, but we’ll see.
9:45 AM — Media Commentary:
AP’s 9:03 AM report is pretty straight at first, but it gets into the scare words by the third para and really gets rolling with the negativity later in the report:
Employers Boost Payrolls by 132,000
Employers boosted payrolls by a respectable 132,000 in November, but the unemployment rate edged up to 4.5 percent as jobseekers streamed into the labor market by the thousands with the onrushing holidays.
The tally of new jobs added to the economy last month marked an improvement from the 79,000 new positions generated in October and was the most since September, the Labor Department reported Friday. It was mostly a cheerful economic message at a time of year when shopping peaks.
Although the unemployment rate crept up from a five-year low of 4.4 percent in October, the politically sensitive number also pointed, nevertheless, to a labor market that is in good shape despite a slumping housing market and a struggling auto sector.
….. The economy, which has been losing steam all this year, slowed to a pace of 2.2 percent in the July-to-September quarter. Growth in the October-to-December quarter and into early next year also is expected to be sluggish. The crumbling housing market is a main factor in the economy’s slower growth.
Losing steam ALL YEAR? Hmm — After 2005’s final-quarter GDP growth of 1.7%, first quarter 2006 GDP growth came in at 5.6%, followed by 2.6% and 2.2% (not finalized) in the second and third quarters. Losing steam since the first quarter, sure, but NOT “all this year.” As to the “crumbling” and “slumping” housing market: Prices on the whole are not going down (nationally, the 3rd quarter housing appreciation edged out inflation by a few tenths of a %), and the realtors’ organization reported last week that the market, correctly pegged as in a slump, is “stabilizing.”
The only other quibble is that it’s only the oldline “Big Three” in the auto sector that’s struggling. The non-Big 3s are mostly on fire, though yesterday’s report that total outstandaing vehicle loans fell significantly does give rise to worries that difficulties may be ahead for the entire sector.
Fox News took the same AP report and gave it this headline: “November Employment Report Upbeat as Economy Adds 132,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate Climbs to 4.5%.”
Reuters is commentary-free so far (Headline: “Nov payrolls stronger than expected”).
11:35 AM — Media Commentary:
The view from across the pond at the Financial Times is a bit more measured than the AP:
US employment points to steady growth
US employers continued to add workers to their payrolls at a strong pace last month pointing to continued economic growth, the latest figures showed.
….. The strong job creation provides further weight for Fed’s forecast that the US economy is returning to a moderate rate of growth, despite a slowdown in key sectors such as construction and manufacturing.
Not quite the talk of “soft landing” and “avoiding a recession,” eh?
All Headline News stakes out middle ground: “Analysts say the economic slowdown in the U.S. is mild based on the figures in the report.”
The Street.com — “Hot Day on Jobs Front”
The BBC carries this wrap-up quote, after using someone forecasting a “soft landing” earlier in the piece:
“The report is considerably stronger than expected,” said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research.
“There are several signs of strengthening economic activity.”
Reuters’ first report with any commentary focused on the positives for the stock market.
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UPDATE, 10:45 PM: The American Shareholders Association’s Shareholders’ Corner Blog lobbies for the Household Survey employment numbers as more credible (the Establishment employment increase since Jan. 2002 they use is 6.2 mil instead of 5.4, which is incorrect; also note — Businomics doesn’t agree):
Job creation is most likely much greater than President Bush is being given credit for. The Payroll survey shows just 3.5 million jobs have been created during Bush’s six year tenure while the Household survey shows more than double that number coming in at 7.8 million. Revisions will consistently increase the number but since the changes are incremental he will never really receive the credit. Job growth will continually be reported as under potential and that affects the confidence of consumers, shareholders, and businesses, which will continue to keep his approval ratings low.