Following up on a Think Tank’s 2006 Predictions Last December

Last year’s USAT link is still there. Last year’s BizzyBlog entry suggested, “Let me be so bold as to suggest that businesses making decisions based on the idea that these things will occur might be making quite a mistake.”

I think that suggestion was sound. Here are last year’s predictions, with my comments in italics:

• A backlash against the poor quality of recent movies and music. — Not anything really significant beyond what was already happening; Hollywood’s 2006 box office is actually a bit ahead, even after inflation, of 2005’s.
  
• The survival business will boom for the first time since the Cold War as Americans perceive their government as incapable of protecting them from terrorist attacks and natural disasters. – Did not happen, although it’s understandable that some may feel that way.
• Technology will continue to empower self-reliant, “off the grid” survivalists, who will seek to avoid payment of fuel, water, electricity and telephone bills. – Nothing significant occurred here.
• Citizen-driven movements for states to break away from the union will arise. – Nothing significant beyond that of previous years occurred.
• Global sales of products “made in the USA” will suffer after media coverage of Hurricane Katrina, which greatly damaged the world’s view of the United States. — Did not happen.
• Online TV, the ultimate in media convergence, will signal the decline of the communication industry’s monopoly on broadcast news and entertainment. — This was already happening in 2005 and continued in 2006, but it’s wayyyyyy too early to declare a definitive decline.
• Real estate values in rural areas will continue to rise as it becomes fashionable to downsize from mega-mansions to log cabins. — Did not happen, especially the log cabin part (zheesh).
• Entertainment that pokes fun at the consumption habits of the wealthy elite will become popular as reality TV’s projection of “real life” becomes increasingly inaccurate. — If anything, the fun is being poked at the newly-rich who can’t handle their newfound fortune, like that one idiot family on MTV (I don’t remember their names because I couldn’t last 5 minutes without wanting to pull what’s left of my hair out).
• A new American labor movement will boost union power for workers in the lowest strata of the U.S. economy. — Did not happen, but minimum wage laws were passed in several states. They will help some, and perhaps many, will cause unemployment for others, and I expect will do little to help organizing efforts.
• Hometown economies will benefit as fuel costs soar and consumers become less willing to drive farther to do their errands; if a pandemic such as bird flu hits, people will patronize local merchants to avoid crowds. — Some trip consolidation occurred during the $3 gas period in the summer, but that’s it.
• Discovering reliable new sources of alternative energy will be the primary drive in science and invention. — Did not happen to any degree greater than previous years.
• Americans will address environmental concerns such as global warming, food safety and recycling. – Global warming - no (which is good, because it’s bogus); food safety - as long as we’re not irradiating food sensibly, we’re not really serious about food safety; recycling, as shown a while ago, is (almost) all BS.

Better luck next year to The Trends Research Institute. You’ll notice that the predictions in their 2007 Trends teaser are a lot more vague — and therefore a lot more difficult to monitor the success of.