Economist Commenter on China/India Industrialization Makes Overlooked Point (UPDATE: China’s Emissions to Surpass US Soon)

I guess I should have known better than to wait a couple of weeks for someone at the Economist to notice something when the magazine did a post (HT Instapundit) discussing the implications of the continued industrialization of China and India (internal link added by me). Luckily, though, one of its commenters (#6) did:

What an odd coincidence that the much reviled Bush administration signed the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate a year and a half ago designed to do much of what is being advocated here. From the Wikipedia article, the intent is to:

• develop, deploy and transfer existing and emerging clean technology;
• meet increased energy needs and explore ways to reduce the greenhouse gas with out hurting the economies;
• build human and institutional capacity to strengthen cooperative efforts; and
• seek ways to engage the private sector.

What good sense but how popular was it with Europe when it was launched? In short, the center-right in the US has already seen the truth, has put in place a framework for fixing the problem, and is focused on cleaning things up without condemning untold millions to grinding poverty. Now who in Europe will admit it?

Point made. The evil, rapacious Bush Administration actually does something while the rest of the world fiddles; whines about the lack of mandatory emissions caps; and plots billions, if not trillions, in global carbon taxation.

When China’s and India’s consumption surpasses the US’s (in China, that could occur in as little as 2 years, says the, uh, New York Times; nope, sooner, see UPDATE below), you would think that the heat, so to speak, will really be on those two developing countries to “do something.”

But here’s a prediction about that — If we get to that point, within a few years after that, the enviro and media interest in global warming will, so to speak, evaporate. That’s because globaloney is about punishing the currently industrialized world, and mostly the US, and not at all about solving a real problem (if it even IS a real problem). Once Chinese and Indian prosperity, and energy consumption, make the real objective unattainable because of the obvious offensiveness of not even going after the real #1, there will be one of the biggest “never minds” ever recorded.

In fact, the current ferocity of the globalarmist crowd may be directly traceable to how quickly the carbon-producing worm is turning; and how ironic is it that the hated Bush Administration, as noted above, is involved the only group actually attempting to do something that might put off that date? If they don’t get their way in the next few years, the enviros’ most logical candidates for punishment will change to those they would rather not go after — an enviro quagmire, so to speak.

I’ll even guess that if the sequence of events occurs as described, the so-called “science” will turn on a dime.

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UPDATE: Clear and Present Quagmire alert — Scratch that “2 years” prediction for China to catch up in emissions. According to this SF Chronicle report by Robert Collier, the catch-up will take place next year, or perhaps even this year:

Far more than previously acknowledged, the battle against global warming will be won or lost in China, even more so than in the West, new data show.

A report released last week by Beijing authorities indicated that as its economy continues to expand at a red-hot pace, China is highly likely to overtake the United States this year or in 2008 as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

This information, along with data from the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based alliance of oil importing nations, also revealed that China’s greenhouse gas emissions have recently been growing by a total amount much greater than that of all industrialized nations put together.

“The magnitude of what’s happening in China threatens to wipe out what’s happening internationally,” said David Fridley, leader of the China Energy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

….. New statistics released in Beijing on Wednesday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics show that China’s consumption of fossil fuels rose in 2006 by 9.3 percent, about the same rate as in previous years — and about eight times higher than the U.S. increase of 1.2 percent.

[sarcasm] So now I expect all the enviros’ attention to get refocused to China, where I’m shoooooore they’ll find a “warm” reception from Beijing to an emissions cap regime that would keep hundreds of millions mired in poverty forever, just as it has begun to appear that the large majority of China’s population could be pulled out of it by capitalism in just 2-3 decades. Good luck, guys and gals. :–> [/sarcasm]

UPDATE 2: Anticipating an argument — Sure, China’s per-capita use emissions are much lower than ours, but it the current 8% differential in the rate of increase cited above (9.3% minus 1.2%) continues for only 19 or 20 years, China’s per-capita use will equal ours. China’s where the “problem” is, so leave the US alone already (and, I predict, watch the “problem” lose its luster).

UPDATE 3: Given the furor over emissions and the fact that China’s move to emissions equality with the US has occurred more quickly than originally anticipated, shouldn’t we wonder whether the 9.3% emissions-growth stat from the Chinese is understated — perhaps by quite a bit?