Monday’s post on this topic projected a record-setting $362 billion in fedral receipts for the month of April.
Later that day, Brian Wesbury predicted $390 billion.
I looked at the Daily Treasury Statements for April 27 and April 30 and have updated the chart I did Monday to reflect actual activity for those two days:
So my revised prediction for April, assuming all other receipts come in at the same level as last year, is $367 billion, and my revised estimated increase compared to last year is 16.5% instead of Monday’s 14.9%.
We won’t know the final collections number until Thursday, May 10 at 2PM. But we do know that it will break all records for single-month collections.
That explains why rest of May 10 has been designated “Hug a Liberal Economist Day.” They’ll need to be consoled as the greatest proof to date of the validity of supply-side economics enters the history books.
Already, the improved situation with the federal deficit is having an impact. I’ll theorize that the Associated Press’s Martin Crutsinger, who seems to have made it a point over the past couple of years to downplay good economic news as it occurs, might have felt quite a bit of pain as he wrote this (HT NewsBusters commenter dscott):
With budget deficits improving, the government said Wednesday it is discontinuing sales of three-year Treasury notes.
The Treasury Department said the last auction of three-year notes will occur next week as part of the regular series of quarterly debt auctions used to help finance the $8.8 trillion federal government debt.
….. Analysts believe that this year’s budget deficit could drop as low as $200 billion, compared to a deficit in the 2006 budget year, which ended on Sept. 30, of $247.7 billion. That figure represented a four-year low for the deficit.
Hey Martin: I predicted $177 billion in October of last year, and I’m pretty convinced that I blew it — on the high side. Now I think $150 billion is eminently doable. Brian Wesbury believes it will be $115 billion. Find those “analysts,” Martin — the person furthest from the actual result buys lunch.
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UPDATE: In terms of the deficit, the wild card in all of this is spending. Last April’s spending level of $196.2 billion was very low in comparison to other months before and since. If the April surplus ends up greater than $166.4 billion (this would allow for up to $223 billion in spending if Wesbury’s $390 billion in receipts is the correct call), the deficit for the first seven months fiscal 2007 (about $92 billion) will have fallen by more than half from the $184.1 billion deficit that occurred during the first seven months of fiscal 2006.