Today’s release of the Institute for Supply Management’s Non-Manufacturing Activity Report, which measures business conditions in the 86% of the economy other than manufacturing, came in with a reading of 60.7, after recording a 59.7 last month.

As has been customary, the report whipped the pants off of “expectations.” This Thomson Financial article at Forbes predicted a decline to 58.1 instead of the full-point increase that occurred, as did this AFX piece.

This was the 51st consecutive reported month of expansion for the Non-Manufacturing Index (any reading above 50 indicates expansion). It comes on the heels of Monday’s ISM Manufacturing Report, which came in at 56, marking the 47th month of expansion in that index in the past 49 months.

So 14% of the economy is expanding nicely, while the other 86% can fairly be said to be nearly booming. Who knew?

At the halfway point of 2007, this is indeed a good time to look at how the Bush 43 Economy, as measured by the ISM indices, has performed. The dominant theme that seemed to rule Old Media’s coverage earlier in the decade was that the economy was “the worst since Herbert Hoover.” Even recently, though the earlier meme has receded, a substantial majority of Americans gives the president poor marks for his current stewardship of the economy, with a substantial plurality of Americans even believing that the the economy is, even now, in a recession.

The chart below shows the average Manufacturing Index during each era’s term of “budget and economy responsibility” from the index’s inception in January of 1948 through June 2007, and the average Non-Manufacturing Index during the two eras since it was first published in July 1997.

The fact is that the Bush 43 Economy is looking pretty darned good, even stellar, compared to most other eras:

“Budget and economy responsibility” begins with the inception of the first federal fiscal year (October 1) after the presidential election preceding the beginning of the era, because it is the first budget a new president can directly influence.

Some notes:

• Bush 43’s Manufacturing Index performance is the best in 30 years, going all the way back to Nixon-Ford.
• The Clinton Era Manufacturing Index performance trails Bush 43’s by a substantial margin, as does the Reagan Era.
• Bush 43’s Non-Manufacturing Index performance is ahead of the portion of the Clinton Era that was measured. The first 36 measured months of the Clinton Era were probably the best of Clinton’s presidency, but were then followed by 15 months of deterioration due to the fallout from the bursting of the dot-com bubble.
• Bush 43 began his budget-econ responsibility with Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing readings in the high 40s, even before the September 11 attacks that pre-dated the onset of his responsibility by a few weeks.
• The highest Non-Manufacturing Index number during the Clinton Era was 62.6 in August and October of 1997. The Bush 43 Era has had nine months with a higher result.
• Going further back into history, Carter’s very good Manufacturing Index average masks a disastrous 1980, where the index’s reading at one point (May of that year) fell to an all-time near-death low of 29.4.

Many, if not most, exclusive consumers of Old Media have no idea what has really been happening in the economy. Here’s just one small example of the distorted economic coverage Old Media has engaged in. On February 28, the New York Times’ David Leonhardt claimed that the economy’s manufacturing sector was in recession (the TimeSelect abstract claims the entire country was in recession, though Leonhardt’s original did not). In the four-plus months since Leonhardt’s report, ISM has issued 5 reports for the months of February through June. All have come in as expansions. Though one can’t be certain because of the TimeSelect firewall, searches of the Times on “manufacturing recession” and “Leonhardt manufacturing” (both without quotes) appear to indicate that the Times reporter has never retracted his recession call.

I think that we’ll have to wait until the second quarter GDP results are released to be completely convinced that the economy is on track after very disappointing first-quarter growth. But in light of the ISM reports and history, it’s pretty hard to make a case that the economy is in bad shape, and it’s even harder to claim that the Bush 43 Era has been one of poor economic performance.

Not that Old Media reporters like David Leonhardt and so many others won’t continue to try.

Cross-posted at NewsBusters.org.

The latest Carnival of Ohio Politics, with perhaps the most extensive participation it has ever had, it here. It is truly a Pho-nomenal assemblage.

Boring Made Dull’s XXXIVth collection on Econ and Social Policy also has more links than I think I’ve ever seen before, and is here.

Justin at Right on the Right has relaunched his site with a focus on teens, and “mak(ing) us a generation of free thinkers and free ideas.” Go for it, man.

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Emotional Terrorism indeed. How can a network get so much so wrong unless it’s deliberate?

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I meant to get to this set of points earlier, and this Hot Air vid was a good reminder:

• Homeland Security chief Michael Chertoff apparently believed that the $4.4 billion specially allocated for security in the immigration bill just voted down would give him what he needs to enforce immigration laws.
• Chertoff said that without passage of the immigration bill, he would not be in a position to be able to enforce existing law.
• To my knowledge, Chertoff has not asked for that $4.4 billion.
• One must therefore assume that Chertoff is not interested enough in enforcing immigration law to demand what he needs to do his job properly.
• The inescapable conclusion is that Chertoff owes it to everyone to step aside in favor of someone who will do what’s necessary to enforce immigration law, and who will fight for what he or she needs if it’s not there already.

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June 2007 US Treasury receipts are shaping up to be up 5% or more over June 2006, based on a look at the final Daily Treasury Statement for the month (figures are in millions; June 2006’s final Daily report is here):

There was a nice pickup in collections from taxpayers who make quarterly estimated payments. Collections of withheld taxes didn’t go up much because there were 21 business days in 2007 compared to 22 in 2006. It shouldn’t go unnoticed that on Monday, the first business day of July 2007, $22 billion in withholding collections took place, up from $21 billion on the comparable day in 2006.

I haven’t figured out how to get from the final Daily report to the Monthly, but if it were easy, the Feds wouldn’t have to wait until the eighth business day of the next month to release the Monthly report. The next one comes out on July 12. It may be the first indication that the shelf life of the supply-side tax cuts is being cut short by the prospect of their going away, thanks either to legislation pending in Congress or a change in what party the next president is from.

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Non-Big Three carmakers had a great month:
- Nissan — Up 23%.
- Honda — Up 11%, to a record level for the company.
- Hyundai — Up 11%, also a company record.
- Toyota — Up 10%.
- General Motors — Down 21%. GM reduced fleet sales to rental-car companies, but that only accounted for one-fifth of the 21% drop.
- Ford — Down 8.1%. The link says that “it was the first month since October 2006 that the Ford, Mercury and Lincoln brands posted a combined retail sales increase” (i.e., excluding fleet sales). That’s 14 months of decline in the past 16 months. For the first six months of this year, Ford’s sales are down 11.1%.
- Chrysler — Down 1%.

What appears to be at least a short-term trend towards smaller vehicles is primarily helping the transplant companies. This ought to be a reason for Nancy Pelosi to at least listen to, instead of fight with, Congressman John Dingell of Michigan about the negative consequences of radically increasing CAFE mileage requirements. Fat chance.

From Long Island, NY (video is also at the link; the top screen at the right contains the entire 8-minute 911 conversation, and the bottom one has the TV station’s report):

Hero Dialed 911, spoke with emergency responders

(Bay Shore – WABC, July 2, 2007) – A 5-year-old Long Island girl is being praised as a hero after she called 911 when her mother suffered a seizure Saturday afternoon.

Police say they’re astonished that a 5-year-old would not only call 911, but have a conversation like this child did, like an adult.

It’s a lesson, they say, for every parent and child.

At just 5 years old, Diavonnie Lofton has already had to call 911 to save the life of her own mother. Thankfully, she knows her phone number by heart, along with her home address and when it is the right time to dial those three critical numbers.

“I said she had a seizure and she was shaking,” Lofton said.

Her mom, Charisse, just returned home from the hospital after collapsing Saturday afternoon into an unconscious state. And the only person there to help was Diavonnie, who called 911 right away.

911 operator: Is your mom having a seizure?

Diavonnie: Well, she just started shaking, but she stopped. And now, she’s just breathing hard, I can’t even look at her!.

Diavonnie stayed on the line with operators for all eight minutes that is stunning first responders on Long Island. They credit Diavonne for calmly explaining what was happening to her mom.

911 operator: Has your mom ever been shaking before today?

Diavonnie: Oh, oh, oh, oh, the doctor said that would stop.

“I don’t know how long I was out,” Charisse said. “If she didn’t call anybody, I’d probably still be upstairs.”

But, thanks to her smart, bubbly 5-year-old little girl, crews arrived within minutes. Officer Sean Conner was one of the first at the door…..

Go here for the rest of the story.