Day 1 after Jim Cramer’s Friday ‘Armageddon’ Call: Markets Up, Bonds OK
The lesson from this post isn’t bias as much as it is making sure not to get taken in by Old Media overreactions.
Jim Cramer of CNBC’s “Mad Money” went mad on Friday, declaring Armageddon in this video rant on Friday (watch the whole thing to see just how out-of-control he was; his declaration is at 1:40 in the vid — “in the fixed-income markets, we have Armageddon.”):
The first trading day after Cramer’s declaration of Aramageddon went thusly (from a CNN e-mail after the markets’ 4PM close):
Dow sees biggest point gain of year in early tallies, closing 284 points higher on surging financial stocks, falling oil prices.
Here are results at nasdaq.com as of 4:11 –
Of course, one day does not a market make, but you would have thought the equity markets would have at least gone down, at least a little, to justify Cramer’s meltdown. But instead, the stock indices posted very decent gains.
Oh, and how about the fixed-income markets? From MarketWatch (after the 3PM close of the bond market; link requires free registration):
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note lately closed down 11/32 at 98- 7/32 with a yield ….. of 4.735%.
The 30-year bond fell 19/32 to 97-17/32 with a yield ….. of 4.909%.
The 2-year note ended off 4/32 at 100-8/32 with a yield of 4.500%.
These are hardly ginormous, let alone calamitous, changes.
While yours truly is in no way predicting the future direction of the markets, many of those who liquidated holdings earlier today as a result of Cramer’s rant might have experienced a bit of seller’s remorse at the close.
Cross-posted at NewsBusters.org.
Hi Tom,
I saw the explanation by Cramer (linked from Drudge) and he said (in short), that he didn’t want to look back if there was a catastrophe and have “remained quiet”.
He is a drama queen (because he’s a trader by trade, and not an investor [for long term] as such), reacting on a relatively short term attention span.
However, he did mention in another segment about the ‘teaser rates’ that the many new homeowners have walked in on, and stated that these will start to be a problem when the rate goes up for them starting en masse later this year. What do you think about that idea?
BTW, I haven’t visited bizzyblog in a while, but it’s just as good as it was when I was last here a few months ago. Well done.
Comment by snowballs — August 6, 2007 @ 9:46 pm
I used to listen to his show when it was on here from 6-7. Drama queen indeed.
The problem with his concern about ARMs and IOs is that he assumes, as stated in the vid clip, that all or almost all will go into foreclosure. Now way. It is a worry, but it would be a much bigger worry if mortgage rates were a lot higher. But they’re not. A bigger worry is that overreaction might start causing the only people who would get approved for loans to be those who don’t need them.
Thanks for the nice words. Come back more often. :–>
Comment by TBlumer — August 7, 2007 @ 7:00 am
#2, I could be wrong, but doesn’t this also assume that everyone w/an ARM is clueless about the whole market? Some ARMS are set up quite deliberately & strategically vs. the only way to afford a mortgage.
Comment by Rose — August 7, 2007 @ 8:41 am
#3, of course. Some people who could have afforded to go fixed went with an ARM to reduce payments for at least a while.
All of this is also premised on the idea that home prices are declining across the board, which has been shown to be wrong several times here.
Comment by TBlumer — August 7, 2007 @ 10:59 am
CRAMER IS A LIBERAL DEMOCRAT, and a former Hedge Fund owner; it is in his vested interest to create fear and increase market instability. Dems are worried: Iraq is going against them, the economy has been going against them for almost 6 years and even with the NYT, WaPo, LAT and entire broadcast media pushing the “terrible economy,” and pushing Class Warfare, the gdp grew 3 3/4% last quarter and the unemployment rate is 4 1/2%.
The dogs are getting tired of the dog food the libs have been selling. Sooner or later, people are going to wake up and understand they’re being seriously manipulated and made foolish. mariana
Comment by mariana — August 9, 2007 @ 10:12 am
How does one know if all of the ARMs are going to default? How many of them will convert to a fixed-rate after a year?
Regarding home prices, I do see a substantial amount of homes for sale in my neighborhood (West Chester) that sit for quite a while.
Comment by Doug — August 10, 2007 @ 9:22 am