Comments on: The October Employment Numbers (110207) http://www.bizzyblog.com/2007/11/02/the-october-employment-numbers-110207/ The Business End of the Blogosphere Fri, 21 Nov 2008 21:50:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5 By: TBlumer http://www.bizzyblog.com/2007/11/02/the-october-employment-numbers-110207/#comment-117801 TBlumer Sat, 03 Nov 2007 02:23:06 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/2007/11/02/the-october-employment-numbers-110207/#comment-117801 #3 dscott, in theory the unemployment rate considers illegals, because it’s not in the scope of the questionnaire to ask about legal status. The establishment survey, which tells us about new jobs created, is vulnerable to underestimation if day laborers not put on official payroll are ignored (which they would be). Illegals who manage to become employees with false SSNs and ID would be picked up in the Establishment Survey as “real” employees. I think you\'re right that a lot of illegals going home might bring down the total jobs numbers or keep them from increasing much, but you would also expect the unemployment rate to drop considerably. Do you realize that if 2-3 million illegals are among the 7.2 million unemployed (semi-likely), the unemployment rate might be as low as 3%, right where we were in 1998-2000? BLS should really study the citizenship status of the unemployed. #3 dscott, in theory the unemployment rate considers illegals, because it’s not in the scope of the questionnaire to ask about legal status. The establishment survey, which tells us about new jobs created, is vulnerable to underestimation if day laborers not put on official payroll are ignored (which they would be). Illegals who manage to become employees with false SSNs and ID would be picked up in the Establishment Survey as “real” employees.

I think you\’re right that a lot of illegals going home might bring down the total jobs numbers or keep them from increasing much, but you would also expect the unemployment rate to drop considerably. Do you realize that if 2-3 million illegals are among the 7.2 million unemployed (semi-likely), the unemployment rate might be as low as 3%, right where we were in 1998-2000? BLS should really study the citizenship status of the unemployed.

]]> By: dscott http://www.bizzyblog.com/2007/11/02/the-october-employment-numbers-110207/#comment-117796 dscott Fri, 02 Nov 2007 20:56:27 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/2007/11/02/the-october-employment-numbers-110207/#comment-117796 I believe the unemployment stats will not be a timely indicator of the economy as in the past given the numbers of illegals working jobs that Americans should be working. As ICE and the States get their act together in demanding employers properly verify the SS # of applicants, illegals will begin to self deport in droves either to Canada or Mexico. Because of this I believe the unemployment stats will not reflect properly the new scenerio of Americans taking back jobs illegals were working. If we consider that of the 12 million or so illegals here maybe half of them are working jobs, so that's about 6 million jobs at the high end. This points out something completely lost on the MSM, the tax cuts didn't just create 6 million new jobs since 2003 but more like 12 million jobs. Now that those jobs are camoflagued by an illegal worker, they, loosing their jobs will be equally hidden, so that if and when employers shed jobs to cut expenses, the illegals will be the first to go. Under this scenerio, 6 million people could potentially loose their jobs but the unemployment stats would never reflect it. This may be the first economic downturn in history where legal workers didn't loose their jobs. I believe the unemployment stats will not be a timely indicator of the economy as in the past given the numbers of illegals working jobs that Americans should be working. As ICE and the States get their act together in demanding employers properly verify the SS # of applicants, illegals will begin to self deport in droves either to Canada or Mexico. Because of this I believe the unemployment stats will not reflect properly the new scenerio of Americans taking back jobs illegals were working.

If we consider that of the 12 million or so illegals here maybe half of them are working jobs, so that’s about 6 million jobs at the high end. This points out something completely lost on the MSM, the tax cuts didn’t just create 6 million new jobs since 2003 but more like 12 million jobs. Now that those jobs are camoflagued by an illegal worker, they, loosing their jobs will be equally hidden, so that if and when employers shed jobs to cut expenses, the illegals will be the first to go. Under this scenerio, 6 million people could potentially loose their jobs but the unemployment stats would never reflect it. This may be the first economic downturn in history where legal workers didn’t loose their jobs.

]]> By: TBlumer http://www.bizzyblog.com/2007/11/02/the-october-employment-numbers-110207/#comment-117795 TBlumer Fri, 02 Nov 2007 18:40:03 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/2007/11/02/the-october-employment-numbers-110207/#comment-117795 If you could send a screen shot with Browser and OS noted, it might be helpful, though I have already received one and forwarded it to those who need to see it. If you could send a screen shot with Browser and OS noted, it might be helpful, though I have already received one and forwarded it to those who need to see it.

]]> By: Libertarian Jason http://www.bizzyblog.com/2007/11/02/the-october-employment-numbers-110207/#comment-117794 Libertarian Jason Fri, 02 Nov 2007 18:36:13 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/2007/11/02/the-october-employment-numbers-110207/#comment-117794 Hey man.. Not to nitpick... But when I view your blog, the type is crashing into the list on the right. Not sure why.... -LJ Hey man.. Not to nitpick… But when I view your blog, the type is crashing into the list on the right. Not sure why….

-LJ

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