November 29, 2007

Jumpin’ GDP: Revised Third Quarter Growth is 4.9%

This of course explains why a Google News search I just did on “recession” has hundreds and hundreds of articles talking about a possible recession, including 481 in the first 20 listings (/sarc).

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announcement is here.

Key excerpts (bolds are mine):

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, equipment and software, federal government spending, nonresidential structures, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

….. The real change in private inventories added 0.98 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 0.22 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $32.9 billion in the third quarter, following an increase of $5.8 billion in the second quarter and an increase of $0.1 billion in the first.

Ever since the fourth quarter of 2006, when there was a big downward revision to GDP because of inventory reductions, I have been wondering when the reverse was going to occur, because it almost had to. Now it has.

I don’t expect this revision to break out of the business pages. The expectations that built up in the past week were barely news. 5.0% would have been tougher to ignore. We’ll see.

Two tidbits you may not see reported elsewhere (source info from BEA is here):

  • If it holds, and I believe it will, this is the best quarter since 3Q03, and the second best since 2Q-2000.
  • Again if it holds, the combined 2nd and 3rd quarter total of 8.7% (after the 2nd quarter’s 3.8%; quarterly percentages are presented in annualized form) is the highest since the 3Q03 and 4Q03′s 10.2%. 2Q03 and 3Q03 were a combined 11.0%.

Cross-posted at


1 Comment

  1. [...] BTW (shhh secret stuff)  GDP grew by 4.9% last quarter (Best quarter since 2003). Filed under: Business by — Dave @ 7:02 am [...]

    Pingback by » Talking Down the Economy — December 3, 2007 @ 6:02 am

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