The November Employment Numbers

8:25 a.m.

After the four significant good-news items earlier this week, one would think that a strong Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) might quiet “The Recession is coming, The Recession Is Coming” chorus.

Of “chorus” I know better.

Advance predictions are running as follows:

• CNN Money — “Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect employers added 70,000 jobs last month, down from 166,000 in October.”
• CNBC has the same Briefing.com prediction, but includes this quote — “‘The ADP employment index has generally undershot the official payrolls number, thus indicating the possibility of a number in excess of 200,000 today,’ ING Bank analyst James Knightley said in a research note.” ADP came in with an estimate of 189,000 jobs added on Wednesday.
• Here’s what AP has — “Economists polled by Thomson Financial predict unemployment rose to 4.8 percent from 4.7 percent in the previous month, and that payrolls grew by 100,000 compared to 166,000 in October.”

8:30 a.m.

Here it is:

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend up in November (94,000), and the unemployment rate held at 4.7 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job growth continued in professional and technical services, health care, and food services. Employment continued to decline in manufacturing and also fell in several housing-related industries, including construction, credit intermediation, and real estate. Average hourly earnings rose by 8 cents over the month.

8:40 a.m.

Looking a bit deeper:

• October’s job additions were revised up by 4,000 to 170,000, while September’s was revised downward significantly by 52K, from 96K to 44K.
• The overall net additional people working in November compared to October was 46,000 (94 + 4 – 52). That’s not particularly impressive, but the next item is.
• The Household numbers that are used as the basis for calculating the unemployment rate showed 617,000 more people looking for work; 696,000 additional people holding jobs; and a 78,000 reduction in the number of unemployed. Though BLS would surely caution against this, it’s hard to ignore the fact that November’s unrounded unemployment rate of 4.657% is .07% lower than last month’s 4.727%, and only 13,000 fewer unemployed away from an official lowering to 4.6%.

More to come.

9:30 a.m.

So will the Associated Press cover the fact that the unemployment rate “defied expectations” by staying at 4.7%, or will it focus how the 94,000-job increase in November was slightly below its 100,000 expectation?

Well, in reading the AP’s 9:09 a.m. report, one can’t help but think that it was hoping for worse news than arrived. After spending five paragraphs relaying the news, it began hitting us with negative commentary that almost had to have been drafted in advance (scare words bolded):

Still, a lingering fear among economists is that consumers will cut back on their spending, throwing the economy into a tailspin. The odds of a recession have grown this year, although Federal Reserve officials, the Bush administration and others are hopeful the country can avoid one.

Then, after brief foray into the good news about wage growth (up 0.5% in November, beating expectations of 0.3%), AP wrapped by going into four paragraphs that almost could have been written into a DNC press release (over-the-top negative words and phrases bolded by me):

The housing and mortgage markets have melted down. Home foreclosures have soared to record highs. Credit has dried up. Lenders have been forced out of business. Financial companies have wracked up billions of dollars worth of losses from bad subprime mortgage investments.

Against this backdrop, Wall Street has endured a fresh bout of turbulence in recent weeks.

Given these stresses, the economy, which logged its strongest growth in four years in the third quarter, is expected to slow to a pace of just 1.5 percent or less in the current October-to-December period.

Economic uncertainties are coloring peoples’ views of President Bush’s stewardship. His approval rating on the economy was just 36 percent in December, according to an AP-Ipsos poll. The meltdown in the housing and mortgage markets has raised dangers to the economy and created headaches for politicians. The mess has given Republicans and Democrats plenty of fodder to point blame at each other.

Remember that GDP prediction. I certainly will.

Credit has “dried up”? Not according to HSH Associates, which reported the following on December 5:

Applications Jump

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the index of mortgage applications to purchase or refinance, increased by the most in more than three years. Applications increased 22.5% to 791.8. Refinancing rose 32% to 2761.3, while purchasing rose 15% to 464.3.

If (mortgage) credit has “dried up,” I would expect that all of these unfortunate applicants are wasting their time, and will be summarily turned down. You and I know that’s not true. So does AP.

9:30 segment cross-posted in modified form at NewsBusters.org.