New Hampshire Results Thread (Winners: McCain, Hillary)
I see two good alternatives for results:
- For Politico, go here (will open in a new window; refreshes itself periodically).
- For CNN, go here (will open in a new window; requires user refresh; appears to be more up-to-date when refreshed).
Comments are below, with the most recent items at the top. “BOOHOO” is, for those who don’t know, yours truly’s nickname for Barack O-bomba Overseas Hussein “Obambi†Obama.
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9:45 a.m., Jan. 9 - Ruffini (the non-shill at Hewitt’s place), dispels a myth:
….. there was no real independent skew to McCain.
….. The final returns will show Romney losing by 5 points, a respectable margin that allows him to go on. As in Iowa, he was unfairly hurt by an unnecessarily early call and being forced to go on TV when the margin was much greater, searing the 37-28 margin into the minds of many.
Awwwww. Too bad, so sad.
6:30 a.m., Jan. 9 - Here are the near-enough-to-final results (Politico; CNN):

McCain’s and Clinton’s margins narrowed to 5.57% and 2.72%, respectively, but the night’s narratives (Clinton’s “startling upset“and “bitter blow for Romney“) still hold.
I count 278,465 Dem and 228,531 GOP votes in the above — a 54.9% – 45.1% ratio. Update: John Podhoretz calls it a “turnout revolution” (HT Instapundit).
I just have to laugh at this –
New Hampshire’s Polling Fiasco
There will be a serious, critical look at the final pre-election polls in the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire; that is essential. It is simply unprecedented for so many polls to have been so wrong. We need to know why.
The “why” is that a poll is and never will be a substitute for the real thing, guys.
10:45 p.m. - Romney opponents should be justifiably pleased. Though they won’t have a good alternative explanation, no one in Old Media, and almost no one in the blogosphere, will credit the efforts of Mass Resistance and many others, including yours truly, for Romney’s repeat losses AND repeat underperformance. That’s okay; we know better. If Objectively Unfit Mitt thinks it will get any better in South Carolina, he’s in for a rude surprise.
10:35 p.m. - Time to call it: Mrs. Clinton wins. She’s up by 5,000 votes with 65% reporting. BOOHOO would have to beat her by about 10% in the rest of the counting. That’s not going to happen. Hillary’s status as front-runner for the nomination is restored. BOOHOO has created a tall mountain to climb. On the GOP side, the heavier Democratic turnout has to be a big-picture worry. Objectively Unfit Mitt Romney’s initial strategy to lock up Iowa and NH and shove everyone aside has clearly failed miserably, but counting him out is premature, given Huckabee’s and McCain’s weaknesses, Fred’s hanging-on status (winning or a strong showing in SC could of course cure all of that in a jiffy), and Rudy’s baggage.
10:30 p.m. — Geraghty at National Review’s Campaign Spot got some bad info from the person who thought Mrs. Clinton’s lead would vanish. Votes cast Dem v. GOP are running about 4-3. On BOOHOO’s decline (about 3% at this point compared to the RCP final average), I wouldn’t rule out a backlash against “The Anointed One” theme that seemed to be playing in Old Media since Iowa. Old Media types might think that race played a part as well. In a contest this close, they may have a point.
10:15 p.m. – Stepping away for a bit. This is too much like watching paint dry.
10:12 p.m. - Keep that fork handy for BOOHOO. CNN has Hillary’s lead back to 4,400 with 61% counted.
10:10 p.m. - The silence at Hewitt’s place is deafening. Jan. 9 Update — Hewitt has a post back-timed to 9:56 p.m. (Townhall IS on Eastern Time). It wasn’t there when I checked at about 10:08, and Hugh, you’re not fooling anyone.
10:05 p.m. - Edwards at 16%-17% is trailing his final Real Clear Politics poll average of 18.3% by about 2%. You have to wonder if he got hurt as the provoker of Mrs. Clinton’s “change” diatribe as the one who picked on the poor little old lady.
10:00 p.m. - BOOHOO down by 3,375. Mrs. Clinton isn’t exactly putting him away, but she’s creaming expectations anyhow.
9:55 p.m. - Predicted Clinton spin if Hillary holds the margin she currently has: “Okay, the children have had their fun. Now it’s time for the adults to take over and get the job done.” That, and The Comeback Kid II.
9:50 p.m. - Romney’s about 5.5% behind McCain now. Hugh Hewitt will call it a surge. BOOHOO is trailing by “only” 3,500 now.
9:45 p.m. - Get out the Granite State fork to put into BOOHOO – with 47% counted, he’s down by over 4,300 votes. I don’t see him making it up. If this were Ohio and I knew where the votes were coming from, I might call it for Clinton. But I’m not, so I won’t.
9:40 p.m. - Whoops, Hillary’s margin is back to 3,000 at Politico. Meanwhile, McCain’s margin over Romney has narrowed to about 6.5%.
9:35 p.m. - BOOHOO has the margin down to 2,100 at Politico. McCain’s lead is almost 8%.
9:30 p.m. - Random thought: Is Hillary benefiting from a senior-citizen (and maybe others) “don’t pick on that poor little old lady” vote? Maybe that crying episode had an effect. Zheesh — you’ve come a long way, baby (/sarc).
9:25 p.m. - Well …. At CNN, McCain’s lead is closer to 7%, and BOOHOO is narrowing the vote gap, with 38% counted. Next refresh has BOOHOO within about 2,600. I would think that winning barely, even if he somehow pulls it off, won’t provide any BOOHOO-mentum in future states.
9:22 p.m. – Speaking of RFK earlier: Somebody call RFK “Bush Stole Ohio” Jr. and tell him that there’s something wrong with the voting in NH, because BOOHOO “won” the exit polls by 5% (39%-34%).
9:20 p.m. - This reality check couldn’t come at a worse time for BOOHOO. A convincing NH win would have fired up the significant African-American populations for MI’s and SC’s primaries. That seems less likely now, especially if he loses by the 4% – 5% by which he currently trails.
9:15 p.m. - One of the bigger stories of the night that won’t get the attention it deserves is that Dem ballots cast are outnumbering those of the GOP significantly. My eyeball estimate is that the ratio is about 3-2 — in a usually red state (GOP-Dem-Indie registration is 30-26-44). Mrs. Clinton’s margin over BOOHOO is growing; halo adjustment in progress.
9:10 p.m. - 31% counted, and BOOHOO is down by over 2,800 votes. The comeback task looks daunting.
9:05 p.m. - Fox Breaking: “Huckabee Concedes.” With 12%, uh, yeah. McCain lead over Romney looks like 8% because of rounding, but it’s really almost 9%.
9:00 p.m. - Another possible Hillary factor, as she builds up a 5-point lead on BOOHOO: Biden’s and Dodd’s support, which may have been a combined 5%, probably swung heavily towards Hillary. Piling on early: Is BOOHOO’s situation yet another of a gazillion examples of candidates hoping for an enthused youth vote to show up that, once again, never materialized?
8:55 p.m. – CNN has the second coming of RFK trailing the second coming of Bill Clinton by 5% with 21% of the vote counted. BOOHOOland has to be concerned at this point. You can forget the 10-point blowouts predicted in the last 36 hours, as well as RCP’s 8.3% average polling margin for BOOHOO.
8:50 p.m. - Formality: Allah at Hot Air notes that NBC and CNN have called it for McCain.
8:45 p.m. – McCain’s lead per CNN appears to be solidifying at 9% – 10%. I don’t think absentees would have broken much differently than same-day voters in this case. If anything, same-day voting “should” have broken more to Romney, if we’re to believe that there were a lot of people like those in the Luntz focus groups that changed their minds after the weekend debates.
8:30 p.m. - They’ve only counted 13% of the vote, but a 4%-plus Clinton lead has to be seen as impressive. But I did think of one reason why BOOHOO could catch up. That would be absentees, which I would expect to have broken to Mrs. Clinton, and which are probably already mostly counted. I would think that most absentee ballots were sent in before the post-Iowa hero-worship phase of the BOOHOO campaign started.
8:25 p.m. - It’s early, but Hillary Clinton is beating BOOHOO (Barack O-bomba Overseas Hussein “Obambi†Obama) by a couple of points. I would think that even an early lead might hold, because outside of university areas that might be big on BOOHOO, there’s little reason to believe that either has concentrated support anywhere. If her lead holds, it will surely have to be considered a body blow to BOOHOO’s status as a walking, talking, living legend.
8:15 p.m. – Per Real Clear Politics’s front page, Fox News has called NH for McCain. Yep, there it is in the Breaking News at the top. The big question is the victory margin over Objectively Unfit Mitt, which in the early going is over about 9%. That would be big expectations-beater over RCP’s final average poll margin of 3.6%.










