January 8, 2008

New Hampshire Results Thread (Winners: McCain, Hillary)

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:58 pm

I see two good alternatives for results:

  • For Politico, go here (will open in a new window; refreshes itself periodically).
  • For CNN, go here (will open in a new window; requires user refresh; appears to be more up-to-date when refreshed).

Comments are below, with the most recent items at the top. “BOOHOO” is, for those who don’t know, yours truly’s nickname for Barack O-bomba Overseas Hussein “Obambi” Obama.

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9:45 a.m., Jan. 9 - Ruffini (the non-shill at Hewitt’s place), dispels a myth:

….. there was no real independent skew to McCain.

….. The final returns will show Romney losing by 5 points, a respectable margin that allows him to go on. As in Iowa, he was unfairly hurt by an unnecessarily early call and being forced to go on TV when the margin was much greater, searing the 37-28 margin into the minds of many.

Awwwww. Too bad, so sad.

6:30 a.m., Jan. 9 - Here are the near-enough-to-final results (Politico; CNN):

NHresults0108

McCain’s and Clinton’s margins narrowed to 5.57% and 2.72%, respectively, but the night’s narratives (Clinton’s “startling upset“and “bitter blow for Romney“) still hold.

I count 278,465 Dem and 228,531 GOP votes in the above — a 54.9% – 45.1% ratio. Update: John Podhoretz calls it a “turnout revolution” (HT Instapundit).

I just have to laugh at this

New Hampshire’s Polling Fiasco

There will be a serious, critical look at the final pre-election polls in the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire; that is essential. It is simply unprecedented for so many polls to have been so wrong. We need to know why.

The “why” is that a poll is and never will be a substitute for the real thing, guys.

10:45 p.m. - Romney opponents should be justifiably pleased. Though they won’t have a good alternative explanation, no one in Old Media, and almost no one in the blogosphere, will credit the efforts of Mass Resistance and many others, including yours truly, for Romney’s repeat losses AND repeat underperformance. That’s okay; we know better. If Objectively Unfit Mitt thinks it will get any better in South Carolina, he’s in for a rude surprise.

10:35 p.m. - Time to call it: Mrs. Clinton wins. She’s up by 5,000 votes with 65% reporting. BOOHOO would have to beat her by about 10% in the rest of the counting. That’s not going to happen. Hillary’s status as front-runner for the nomination is restored. BOOHOO has created a tall mountain to climb. On the GOP side, the heavier Democratic turnout has to be a big-picture worry. Objectively Unfit Mitt Romney’s initial strategy to lock up Iowa and NH and shove everyone aside has clearly failed miserably, but counting him out is premature, given Huckabee’s and McCain’s weaknesses, Fred’s hanging-on status (winning or a strong showing in SC could of course cure all of that in a jiffy), and Rudy’s baggage.

10:30 p.m. — Geraghty at National Review’s Campaign Spot got some bad info from the person who thought Mrs. Clinton’s lead would vanish. Votes cast Dem v. GOP are running about 4-3. On BOOHOO’s decline (about 3% at this point compared to the RCP final average), I wouldn’t rule out a backlash against “The Anointed One” theme that seemed to be playing in Old Media since Iowa. Old Media types might think that race played a part as well. In a contest this close, they may have a point.

10:15 p.m. – Stepping away for a bit. This is too much like watching paint dry.

10:12 p.m. - Keep that fork handy for BOOHOO. CNN has Hillary’s lead back to 4,400 with 61% counted.

10:10 p.m. - The silence at Hewitt’s place is deafening. Jan. 9 Update — Hewitt has a post back-timed to 9:56 p.m. (Townhall IS on Eastern Time). It wasn’t there when I checked at about 10:08, and Hugh, you’re not fooling anyone.

10:05 p.m. - Edwards at 16%-17% is trailing his final Real Clear Politics poll average of 18.3% by about 2%. You have to wonder if he got hurt as the provoker of Mrs. Clinton’s “change” diatribe as the one who picked on the poor little old lady.

10:00 p.m. - BOOHOO down by 3,375. Mrs. Clinton isn’t exactly putting him away, but she’s creaming expectations anyhow.

9:55 p.m. - Predicted Clinton spin if Hillary holds the margin she currently has: “Okay, the children have had their fun. Now it’s time for the adults to take over and get the job done.” That, and The Comeback Kid II.

9:50 p.m. - Romney’s about 5.5% behind McCain now. Hugh Hewitt will call it a surge. BOOHOO is trailing by “only” 3,500 now.

9:45 p.m. - Get out the Granite State fork to put into BOOHOO – with 47% counted, he’s down by over 4,300 votes. I don’t see him making it up. If this were Ohio and I knew where the votes were coming from, I might call it for Clinton. But I’m not, so I won’t.

9:40 p.m. - Whoops, Hillary’s margin is back to 3,000 at Politico. Meanwhile, McCain’s margin over Romney has narrowed to about 6.5%.

9:35 p.m. - BOOHOO has the margin down to 2,100 at Politico. McCain’s lead is almost 8%.

9:30 p.m. - Random thought: Is Hillary benefiting from a senior-citizen (and maybe others) “don’t pick on that poor little old lady” vote? Maybe that crying episode had an effect. Zheesh — you’ve come a long way, baby (/sarc).

9:25 p.m. - Well …. At CNN, McCain’s lead is closer to 7%, and BOOHOO is narrowing the vote gap, with 38% counted. Next refresh has BOOHOO within about 2,600. I would think that winning barely, even if he somehow pulls it off, won’t provide any BOOHOO-mentum in future states.

9:22 p.m. – Speaking of RFK earlier: Somebody call RFK “Bush Stole Ohio” Jr. and tell him that there’s something wrong with the voting in NH, because BOOHOO “won” the exit polls by 5% (39%-34%).

9:20 p.m. - This reality check couldn’t come at a worse time for BOOHOO. A convincing NH win would have fired up the significant African-American populations for MI’s and SC’s primaries. That seems less likely now, especially if he loses by the 4% – 5% by which he currently trails.

9:15 p.m. - One of the bigger stories of the night that won’t get the attention it deserves is that Dem ballots cast are outnumbering those of the GOP significantly. My eyeball estimate is that the ratio is about 3-2 — in a usually red state (GOP-Dem-Indie registration is 30-26-44). Mrs. Clinton’s margin over BOOHOO is growing; halo adjustment in progress.

9:10 p.m. - 31% counted, and BOOHOO is down by over 2,800 votes. The comeback task looks daunting.

9:05 p.m. - Fox Breaking: “Huckabee Concedes.” With 12%, uh, yeah. McCain lead over Romney looks like 8% because of rounding, but it’s really almost 9%.

9:00 p.m. - Another possible Hillary factor, as she builds up a 5-point lead on BOOHOO: Biden’s and Dodd’s support, which may have been a combined 5%, probably swung heavily towards Hillary. Piling on early: Is BOOHOO’s situation yet another of a gazillion examples of candidates hoping for an enthused youth vote to show up that, once again, never materialized?

8:55 p.m. – CNN has the second coming of RFK trailing the second coming of Bill Clinton by 5% with 21% of the vote counted. BOOHOOland has to be concerned at this point. You can forget the 10-point blowouts predicted in the last 36 hours, as well as RCP’s 8.3% average polling margin for BOOHOO.

8:50 p.m. - Formality: Allah at Hot Air notes that NBC and CNN have called it for McCain.

8:45 p.m. – McCain’s lead per CNN appears to be solidifying at 9% – 10%. I don’t think absentees would have broken much differently than same-day voters in this case. If anything, same-day voting “should” have broken more to Romney, if we’re to believe that there were a lot of people like those in the Luntz focus groups that changed their minds after the weekend debates.

8:30 p.m. - They’ve only counted 13% of the vote, but a 4%-plus Clinton lead has to be seen as impressive. But I did think of one reason why BOOHOO could catch up. That would be absentees, which I would expect to have broken to Mrs. Clinton, and which are probably already mostly counted. I would think that most absentee ballots were sent in before the post-Iowa hero-worship phase of the BOOHOO campaign started.

8:25 p.m. - It’s early, but Hillary Clinton is beating BOOHOO (Barack O-bomba Overseas Hussein “Obambi” Obama) by a couple of points. I would think that even an early lead might hold, because outside of university areas that might be big on BOOHOO, there’s little reason to believe that either has concentrated support anywhere. If her lead holds, it will surely have to be considered a body blow to BOOHOO’s status as a walking, talking, living legend.

8:15 p.m.Per Real Clear Politics’s front page, Fox News has called NH for McCain. Yep, there it is in the Breaking News at the top. The big question is the victory margin over Objectively Unfit Mitt, which in the early going is over about 9%. That would be big expectations-beater over RCP’s final average poll margin of 3.6%.

Last-Minute Cramming for NH GOP Voters: The REAL Mitt Romney

Filed under: Economy,Immigration,Life-Based News,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:32 am

Here’s about half of what you need — “The REAL Mitt Romney” (link is directly to YouTube in case the embed below doesn’t work):

Here’s the rest: The “Objectively Unfit” part, expressed succinctly yesterday by Granite State resident Bonnie:

“[He] allowed gay marriages in Mass[achusetts].”

Bonnie’s almost right. Romney went beyond “allowing” it; he imposed it. Regardless of where you stand on the issue, that unilateral imposition of the Goodridge ruling was extra-constitutional and violated his gubernatorial oath of office.

That’s why he’s Objectively Unfit Mitt.

The proof is at this post.

The Definitive NH Primary Objectively Unfit Mitt Romney Index

“Romney, the Courts, and the Constitutions” (RC&C), and Gay Marriage:
- Received Jan. 7, Late-breaking external post — Did Mitt Romney Break the Law?
- Jan. 7 — A Miracle: Someone in the Media Gets It On Objectively Unfit Mitt
- Jan. 3 — One More Time: Why Is It “Objectively Unfit Mitt”?
- Jan. 1 — Romney’s Crunch-Time Choke Game Fix on Same-Sex Marriage
- Nov. 26 — Index to RC&C Posts and “Cliff’s Notes” Explanations
- Nov. 21 — RC&C Part 1: Abortion Coverage in RomneyCare
- Nov. 21 — RC&C Part 2: Mitt Romney and Same-Sex Marriage
- Nov. 23 — RC&C Part 3: Various Excerpts, Statements, and Comments
- Nov. 24 — RC&C Part 4: What’s Beck Got to Do with It?
- Nov. 25 — RC&C Part 5: The Next President and the Courts

Tax- and Econ-related Posts:
- Jan. 7 – Excuse Me? NH Workers/Voters Fleeced by Objectively Unfit Massachusetts Mitt. And Now He Wants Their Vote?
- Jan. 7 — Unfit Mitt’s Economic Performance as MA Gov Makes Mike Dukakis Look Good
- Jan. 7 — The RomneyCare Crackup Is Arriving Early (Heavy Fines and Rationing)
- Jan. 2 — On Romney’s Personal Financial Disclosures, Iranian Disinvestment, and Sino-Russian Oil Companies (a mind-swaying must-read!)
- Jan. 1 — Romney Was a Tax-Raiser in Massachusetts
- Jan. 1 — Romney Was Against the 2003 Bush Tax Cuts Before He Was For Them

Other Posts:
- Jan. 3 — Iowa Gives Us 2008′s Early Winner of the John Connally/Phil Gramm Award
(more…)

Couldn’t Help But Notice (010808)

Filed under: Economy,Health Care,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 6:13 am

Hillary Clinton’s angry, barely below boiling-point, incredibly defensive, grouchy, *itchy response to John Edwards on Saturday may be seen in future years as 2008′s equivalent of “The Dean Scream.” As of Sunday, when this part of the post was written, it had already been viewed over 525,000 times.

Edwards can hardly be blamed for stirring the pot further. The more provoked she is, the worse she is. Three Sunday polls had her down to BOOHOO (Barack O-bomba Overseas Hussein “Obambi” Obama) by double digits.

PM Update: There are so many, other, Clintonian, moments, to report, that it’s, impossible to, keep up (may require subscription), with, them.

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I don’t have time for a definitive debunk of this, but it’s obviously dumb:

LIVING standards in Britain are set to rise above those in America for the first time since the 19th century, according to a report by the respected Oxford Economics consultancy.

The calculations suggest that, measured by gross domestic product per capita, Britain can now hold its head up high in the economic stakes after more than a century of playing second fiddle to the Americans.

Currency fluctuations don’t automatically make the living standards playing field even. Not even close.

I’ll let someone else do the dirty work, and link to it.

PM Update: Here’s one, from Donal Blaney in Kent, UK — “Better than America? Don’t make me laugh!”

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The health insurance proposals of BOOHOO (Barack O-bomba Overseas Hussein “Obambi” Obama) are not coercive enough for the lefty blogs (go to the last two paragraphs at the linked page).

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From IBDeditorials.com — “To Avoid Slump, Taxes Must Be Cut” Even if there isn’t really a slump going on, there should be another tax cut, because federal revenues are about at their trendline as a percentage of the economy’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

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Pete Kotz presided over the 8th Annual Art Modell Awards last week. If “you don’t live in Cleveland,” be thankful.

Positivity: Teen’s Christmastime awakening a medical miracle

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 5:57 am

From Bayville, New York:

December 26, 2007

Madeline Johnson of Bayville said she couldn’t imagine a better Christmas present: On Sunday, her daughter Ariel wiped her face with a washcloth and combed her hair.

“It was like a miracle,” Johnson said, struggling to express the momentousness of the small gestures. “I had really started to think it might be as good as it gets. I felt so depressed.”

Ariel, a 17-year-old senior at Locust Valley High School, has been in a coma in the pediatric intensive care unit at Nassau University Medical Center in East Meadow since Dec. 13. On that stormy day, the cheerleader was driving to school around noon after eating lunch at home when she apparently skidded across the road and slammed into a truck, then into a pole, her mother said.

n what Johnson describes as a series of miracles, first, an off-duty emergency medical technician stopped and made sure she didn’t choke to death on her own vomit.

Then, she was taken to NUMC’s trauma unit. The doctors immediately recognized the seriousness of Ariel’s head injury and called Dr. Salvatore Insinga, a neurosurgeon who just happened to be in the operating room finishing up another procedure.

Time plays a “big role” in brain damage following an injury, Insinga said. “Any delay in these matters means a bigger sacrifice of neurologic function,” he said. The neurosurgeon and his team of three doctors and two nurses spent the next 3 1/2 hours operating on Ariel, taking out a blood clot and temporarily removing part of her skull to relieve the pressure on her swelling brain – the major cause of long-term damage.

Next came around-the-clock care by intensive care doctors and nurses, all of whom Johnson praised.

“I have never seen so much love and caring,” she said.

Dr. Peter Ciminera, director of the pediatric intensive care unit, was cautious but optimistic about Ariel’s recovery.

Go here for the rest of the story.