ISM’s January Manufacturing Index: Back Into Expansion
A few days ago, yours truly, reacting to the durable goods report, wrote the following:
This (report), by the way, is very good news for the economy, indicating that the weakness shown in manufacturing in December’s Institute for Supply Management report might be very short-lived.
Ta-da — from the Institute for Supply Management:
January 2008 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
PMI at 50.7%Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January, while the overall economy grew for the 75th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
Old Media must be so frustrated. Their “manufacturing is in the tank” meme just got jolted by reality.
Repeat after me, Old Media — any reading above 50 means ….. ex, ex, ex (come on, you can say it) ….. ex-pan-sion.
The ISM result beat expectations of 48.4.
So today’s three big pieces of economic news are:
- (:–>) Unemployment rate — Down to 4.9%.
- (:–<) Job creation -- down 17,000 in January (down 8,000 after prior-month revisions).
- (:-->) Manufacturing — back into expansion, if only slightly.
Do I even need to ask which one of the three will dominate the TV newscasts?
Exerpt:
| III | IV | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. |
| 2007 | 2007 | 2007 | 2007 | 2008 |
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|________
|
HOUSEHOLD DATA | Labor force status
|_____________________________________________________
| | | | | |
Civilian labor force ….| 153,191| 153,667| 153,828| 153,866| 153,824| (1)
Employment …………| 146,019| 146,291| 146,647| 146,211| 146,248| (1)
Unemployment ……….| 7,172| 7,375| 7,181| 7,655| 7,576| (1)
Not in labor force ……| 79,019| 79,270| 79,111| 79,290| 78,792| (1)
What is interesting here is even though the Jan rate is 4.9% (153,824), we had 4.7% (153,828) for Nov with virtually the same amount of people in the labor force. The # of unemployed went down (7,818 vs 7576). Interesting anomaly.
Comment by dscott — February 1, 2008 @ 10:47 am
#1, no, you flipped the numbers. The unemployed went up from 7181 to 7576 from Nov. to Jan.
Comment by TBlumer — February 1, 2008 @ 11:04 am