February 10, 2008

Hillary Clinton Will Not Be Our Next President

Filed under: MSM Biz/Other Ignorance,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 9:20 am

She’s melting, melting.

Ben Smith at Politico.com is on to it, almost:

Barack Obama’s landslide victories in three mid-sized states Saturday suggest that he has the opportunity build a significant lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton among the locked-in “pledged” delegates before the candidates face off in the big battlegrounds of Ohio and Texas on March 4.

I would go further.

There is serious Obamamentum at work here. Old Media, which is either still in the tank for Hillary, wants a protracted horse race, or can hardly believe what it is witnessing (probably a combo of all of the above), is papering over an Obama tidal wave that will sweep Hillary Clinton away in the coming weeks — perhaps even before Ohio’s March 4 primary.

Excuse the troubling imagery it inspires, but last night’s results show that Hillary was on the receiving end of three first-order butt-whippings at the hands of the candidate I refer to as BOOHOO (Barack O-bomba Overseas Hussein “Obambi” Obama) –

Louisiana:

DemLAprimary020908

Nebraska:

DemNEcauc020908

Washington state:

DemWAcauc020908

Oh “what a world, what a world.”

Coming up Tuesday: Three more BOOHOO blowouts — Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. Even if Mrs. Clinton wins Maine today, which is by no means a sure thing, by Tuesday night that will be a distant memory (Update: Not any kind of memory — Obama Wins Maine).

Vultures circle. The activists who typically dominate Democratic primaries have lost their fear of her, and grown in their loathing.

Write it down: The only way Hillary can win the nomination is if she steals it. She could conceivably do that by having the DNC “rehabilitate” Michigan and Florida with their current results (BOOHOO will beat her like a drum in both states if the do-overs being considered are held), and by rolling and cajoling super-delegates. But if she steals it, she will ultimately learn that the damage done in doing so made the prize not worth winning.

Yes, I’m officially predicting that Hillary Clinton will not be the next President of the United States.

Soon, barring a “successful” theft, her most important priorities will be how to avoid a non-embarrassing appearance at the convention, and a non-humiliating exit from the national stage.

_____________________________________________

UPDATE, 7:15 p.m.: Welcome Instapundit readers! The initial Instalanche took down the server, and only now have all links been restored within the post, but we “should” be good to go from here.

UPDATE 2: I did this update earlier, but it vaporized in the Instalanche —

Panic:

A senior Democrat who has discussed Clinton campaign thinking with a member of her inner circle said: “The Clintons are in a state of panic. She has to win both Texas and Ohio.”

Not gonna happen. There would be no surprise here if Obama wins both states by 60-40 or more.

For readers and commenters who think “stealing” is too strong a word, especially how it’s seen by rank and file Dems, I bring you Donna Brazile (at the same link):

….. the prospect of a deal behind closed doors, that could brush aside the views of voters in the primaries, is already creating fury in the party.

Donna Brazile, an African American strategist, said last week: “If 795 of my colleagues decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party.”

And, MyDD founder and now Open Leftist Chris Bowers:

If the institution that exists to resolve disputes within the American center-left does not operate according to democratic principles, then I see no reason to continue participating within that institution. If that institution fails to respect democratic principles in its most important internal contest of all–nominating an individual for President of the United States–then I will quit the Democratic Party.

….. This is not a negotiable position.

UPDATE 3: It’s reasonable to be concerned that Mrs. Clinton and her campaign might leave the Democratic Party in the same condition as campaign workers left places they stayed in Iowa and New Hampshire (HTs to Wonkette and BSB).

UPDATE 4: Three words for this — “Deck chairs. Titanic.”

UPDATE 5: The Maine details

MaineDemCaucus_021008

CBS News reports that “even when the support of uncommitted super delegates is figured in….. Obama holds a razor-thin lead with 1,134 delegates overall to 1,131 for Clinton.” UPDATE 5A, Feb. 11: Real Clear Politics has it at 1137-1134 Obama. RCP is missing a few Mainers; including them makes it 1140-1135 Obama.

UPDATE 6, Feb. 12Gabriel Malor at Ace’s place wonders who John Edwards will endorse. The answer is that it doesn’t matter. It’s pretty clear that almost all of his supporters have already gone to Obama.

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39 Comments

  1. Looking at it from a Dem point of view Boo-Hoo is a more formidable general election opponent for McCain. McCain’s age will seem much more an issue against a young energetic guy like Obama. If you’re right, it will be a lot of fun watching her (and Bill’s) behavior as it begins to appear that power is being taken from their grasp. Neither will go easily into the background.

    Comment by largebill — February 10, 2008 @ 11:10 am

  2. #1, afraid for McCain that you’re correct.

    They will not fade away, and one wonders if they will undermine BOOHOO in some way

    Comment by TBlumer — February 10, 2008 @ 1:40 pm

  3. I am looking forward to the end of the Clintons and the potential of a civil political campaign, 16 years of viciousness is enough.

    But as Howard Dean himself pointed out, if the Dem convention is brokered, this will split the Dem party and will cause a number of supporters to stay home on election day. Ironic that Ted Kennedy once again has participated in the spoiling of everyone’s party.

    Comment by dscott — February 10, 2008 @ 1:50 pm

  4. Barack is Boo Hoo?

    But, Hillary is one who keeps turning on the tears.

    Comment by Letalis Maximus, Esq. — February 10, 2008 @ 2:54 pm

  5. Bill and Hillary will get as nasty as they need to to win this thing – they won;t go gracefully. I’ve always had the suspicion that if Bill had been convicted by the Senate, the Army would have needed tear gas to drive Bill and Hillary out of the white House. I wrote about my views
    here

    Comment by Sweating Through Fog — February 10, 2008 @ 3:03 pm

  6. Hillary will never give up. The woman is obsessed with being President which she views as something she is entitled to. She will never quit. She will first do anything it takes to get the nomination, and she will then worry about the consequences later. She will smear, use the race card over and over, cry, drag out Chelsea, drag out Bubba, drag out her mother, use those 900 FBI files to blackmail Democrats and media people, anything. Look at the way NBC and CNN have caved each time she has cracked the whip. Don’t you think she has something on those people? This woman and her husband are political grifters who run an operation like an organized crime family right out of The Godfather. “We have reporters on the payroll, don’t we, Tom?” For me, I am enjoying watching the Democrats try to say how outraged they are by these people. Sorry, but as Chris Hitchens noted, it’s a little bit late. For eight long years, you Democrats defended every tawdry act these two slugs pulled, and now you are only upset because they are doing it to YOU. You Democrats remind me of those Nazis at Nurenberg who acted like they had never heard of Hitler or the death camps. Oh, by the way, The New York Times has endorsed her. Wonder what she has on Pinch?

    Comment by T. — February 10, 2008 @ 3:10 pm

  7. Hey Tom, you’re wrong on this one. The Dem base will be mad as hell, but all Hillary has to do is wave the prospect of controlling all three branches of government and they will snap right in line. She is after all unabashedly with them on all important social issues of the day, even if she will stab them in the back by keeping troops in Iraq (which she will, no 1975 evacuations on her watch)

    The gnashing of teeth will last until about mid-June, after that it will be Hillary bandwagon all the way. And a no holds barred McCain bashfest from here until November, which many parts of the conservative base will either take part in or will be nodding from the sidelines.

    Hillary wins that scenario, but first she has to beat Obama. That’s looking sketchier as time goes one

    Comment by dave — February 10, 2008 @ 3:20 pm

  8. I would add that if she loses Ohio, that’s it. We are the center of the political universe after all.

    Comment by dave — February 10, 2008 @ 3:21 pm

  9. It occurs to me that what is dogging Hillary is a statement [promise] that she made regarding the profits of big oil.

    You do NOT mess with the big oil lobby. She’s a goner.

    Comment by dj — February 10, 2008 @ 3:31 pm

  10. Try to imagine the effect of this quip by McCain during the presidential debate: “I knew John Kennedy, and you, sir, are no John Kennedy.”

    Comment by Gobsmacker — February 10, 2008 @ 3:43 pm

  11. Whichever one gets the nomiantion should choose Jim Webb as VP. He will neutralize McCain because of his superior military credentials…Sec Navy under Reagan and wounded Marine platoon leader and commander in Viet. He’s an economic liberal too. See my extended comments at http://www.differentdrummer.typepad.com

    Comment by milton mankoff — February 10, 2008 @ 4:22 pm

  12. I cannot believe that the Billary will “go softly into that good night”….however, equally, they are probably going to totally annihilate any Demo chances in their quest…albeit, apparently doomed, and thus they show the very disdain they have for ALL people….GOP-DEM, whatever.

    They are the anointed….and to stop them might be possible, but you will lose your party strength doing it!

    What a nice cozy couple!

    Perhaps we are seeing the end of the “Clinton-Would-Be-Dynasty!”…..They simply do not have the guns to outlast the USA’s voter strength…no matter its perversions!

    Comment by Duke DeLand — February 10, 2008 @ 4:38 pm

  13. If Obama continues to do as well as he has, I’m sure the bulk of the super-delegates will vote for him as the nominee.

    After all, their highest priority has to be to support the one with the best likelihood of winning:
    - the consistent feedback is that Obama has appeal that is broader than Clinton’s;
    - the consistent feedback is that the Republicans are more worried about facing him than facing her;
    - and if Clinton is chosen as the nominee and then loses, what can she do for them anyway? How important is Kerry in the party, for comparison?

    The only tricky point is the Florida/Michigan delegation problem. They need to find some mutually face-saving method for allowing their delegation to be seated without undermining their chances of winning the election. The fact that most delegates not only did not campaign but also did not have their names on the ballot means that a substantial “reprocessing” of the results must be taken to interpret this input. Again, I don’t think that the Democrats of these two states want to be held responsible for choosing a losing candidate, either.

    Comment by Neal J. King — February 10, 2008 @ 4:48 pm

  14. If Obama were to announce that when he becomes President there will be vigorous federal criminal investigations into all alleged election frauds, regardless of the party involved, it might produce interesting short-term results for him.

    Comment by PersonFrpmPorlock — February 10, 2008 @ 4:48 pm

  15. Well that’s good news however what will the party do about the Messiah complex replacing her; how will his religious stature effect separation of Church and State?

    Comment by syn — February 10, 2008 @ 5:13 pm

  16. I wonder if Hillary believes her own press about her “inevitability.” If so, are there any takers that if Obama gets the nomination, she continues her run, but as an independent? After all, she’s “inevitable.”

    As a minimum, because she’s invested so much in herself, I don’t think she’ll take it well if she loses to Obama. I expect a meltdown. After all this work, I don’t think she’ll be content to be a back-bencher in the senate.

    Comment by Bob1 — February 10, 2008 @ 5:20 pm

  17. The futures markets agree with you. Right now the probabilities are Hillary 33%, Obama 67%. And they will shift farther if Obama wins Maine as now seems likely.

    Obama will crush McCain too. It’s going to be a long 4 years for us conservatives.

    Comment by Matt — February 10, 2008 @ 5:23 pm

  18. I am a conservative Republican who lives in the bluest state. I have many Democrat friends. Hillary would energize the Rs and dispirit the D’s. Obama has an advantage that Hill can never enjoy. R’s don’t hate him. They just might sit home in a snit over McCain, as long as they know that they don’t have to spend four years with Hillary slobbered over by Hollywood, TV News, etc, and have her picture plastered all over everywhere like some central asian dictator.

    Comment by moptop — February 10, 2008 @ 5:57 pm

  19. Obama’s just another liberal, but the Clintons are scumbags of the highest magnitude. I hate everything about them. If their political careers end this year, I could live with Obama.

    Comment by Moonbat_One — February 10, 2008 @ 6:03 pm

  20. “Yes, I’m officially predicting…”

    What a pompous twit.

    Comment by Dexter Westbrook — February 10, 2008 @ 6:14 pm

  21. So, will Boohoo peel off Hillary’s demographic of childless older women in its entirety? If 30% of these voters identify more with McCain it’s trouble for Obamalamabobama me my momama
    boohoo bobama etc.

    Comment by bc — February 10, 2008 @ 6:16 pm

  22. #19, How mature. You’d prefer that I create multiple hedges like everyone else?

    Comment by TBlumer — February 10, 2008 @ 6:22 pm

  23. Well, at this point, according to MSNBC, it would be mathematically impossible for either of them to reach 2,025 delegates without the super delegates. And they’re in a dead heat now in terms of the delegate count, so I really have no idea what you’re basing your claim on when it comes to Hillay needing to “steal” the election.

    Comment by Chris — February 10, 2008 @ 6:41 pm

  24. Vice Presidents don’t matter except for their own states. Otherwise, people vote for the top of the ticket.

    Comment by TomT — February 10, 2008 @ 6:46 pm

  25. Apologies to Lesley Gore, and, yes, I just made this up!

    “It’s My Party”

    (Hillary Clinton, Suspension of Disbelief Records, 2008)

    Nobody knows where Obama has gone
    Howard Dean left at the same time
    Why was he holding his hand
    When he’s supposed to be holding mine

    It’s my Party, and I’ll cry if I want to
    Cry if I want to, cry if I want to
    You would cry too if it happened to you

    Explainin’ my record, keep hustlin’ all night
    Leave me alone for a while
    ‘Till Kennedy’s dancin’ with me
    I’ve got no reason to smile

    It’s my Party, and I’ll cry if I want to
    Cry if I want to, cry if I want to
    You would cry too if it happened to you

    [Lead Break]

    Howie and Obama just walked through the door
    As if they don’t know a thing
    Oh what a Convention surprise
    Howard’s kissin’ Golden Boy’s ring

    It’s my party, and I’ll cry if I want to
    Cry if I want to, cry if I want to
    You would cry too if it happened to you

    (repeat until you gag)

    Comment by MarkJ — February 10, 2008 @ 6:56 pm

  26. #25, that is really funny.

    #23, see Update 2.

    #16, I think she would be humiliated beyond measure if she went the indie route.

    #7, I don’t think I’ll have to find out whether you’re right on the reconciliation or not. Also, you have to wonder if Ralph Nader, Cindy McKinney, or both could leverage the division to peel away a few precious %.

    #4, look at the links for BOOHOO’s name. Not only does the acronym fit, but so does it’s meaning.

    Comment by TBlumer — February 10, 2008 @ 7:20 pm

  27. “She could conceivably do that by having the DNC “rehabilitate” Michigan and Florida with their current results (BOOHOO will beat her like a drum in both states if the do-overs being considered are held), and by rolling and cajoling super-delegates.”

    The DNC under Howard Dean is not the same DNC as it was under Terry McAuliffe. He has no loyalty to her and isn’t the kind of crazy that would look down on the opportunity to depose an unpopular incumbent. She’s getting nothing unless she shows she can win.

    But yes, I agree. It was quite clear to me on the morning of Feb. 6 that Obama had was a strong favorite to win the nomination given the weight of play; I found it quite amusing to see it declared a tie or slight win for HRC. How do you spin out of losing MN and CO 2:1?

    Comment by John M. — February 10, 2008 @ 10:22 pm

  28. One thing I’m curious about is, if Hillary loses the nomination, how long will she hang onto her Senate seat?

    Consider: Losing the race would permanently take the shine off the Clinton image. Bill would no longer be a force to be reckoned with in the DNC establishment and Hillary would be relegated to the position of JUNIOR Senator from New York. Schumer isn’t going to let her forget that, either. No longer on the center stage she’d be relegated to the back bench in the Senate.

    Running in 2012 is not an option. First she’s getting too old and secondly she would be fighting an uphill battle against an incumbent president, be it McCain or Obama, eevn if she won the nomination the 2nd time around. Losing to Obama in 2008 when she was considered to be at the top of her game would doom her, even if Obama loses the general election.

    Hillary has a secondary goal beyond being President and it’s not to be the Junior Senator from New York for the next 12-18 years. Leaving the Senate she would immediately be able to take advantage of all the contacts and networks she’s set up to enter Corporate America. If she can’t be President of the United States then CEO of some major corporation, with all the power and influence that would bring, might seem a good second choice. She could finally step off Bill’s coattails and make her own way.

    So I give it about a 60-40 chance that if she loses the nomination she’ll finish out her current term and announce her retirement from the Senate in late 2011. Bill can have the job if he wants it: she’ll be done with the grind of politics. She might throw her hat back in the ring for 2012 but I doubt it – she’s really not that stupid.

    Comment by Orion — February 10, 2008 @ 10:52 pm

  29. Tom, I usually defer to your judgment, but I beg to differ with you here. Were I a betting man, my money would be on Monica Lewinsky’s ex-boyfriend’s wife. I think she’ll win the nomination the way #6, #7 and #12 say she will. But she’ll lose the general for this simple reason: who in their right mind would want Shrillary to be Commander-in-Chief of the US Armed Forces in time of war?! In addition, there are so many in our party and in this nation in general who hate everything about the Clintons that the anti-Hillrod vote would be a tidal wave.

    And if by some miracle Osama-Obama-rama were to squeak by with the nomination, he, too, would lose to the GOP nominee. Why? Two reasons: 1) he’s an empty resume and 2) he’s a nobody with the name of Barack Hussein Obama at a time when we are at war with a whole lot of folks named Hussein.

    Comment by Excelsior — February 10, 2008 @ 11:12 pm

  30. #29, We’re ultimately agreeing with the title of my post, but getting there in different ways.

    My confidence in the truth of your second paragraph is unfortunately very low, and has been since December 20, 2006. I would love to be wrong.

    Comment by TBlumer — February 11, 2008 @ 12:30 am

  31. [...] So, the rise and rise of Barack Obama continues apace, and Hillary Clinton is in deep trouble. [...]

    Pingback by Obama rising, Hillary sliding, GOP’s all CINOS now! | The Anchoress — February 11, 2008 @ 12:50 am

  32. If this is true, then McCain will be our next President. Because theres no way older white democrats and blue collar workers are going to vote for a black liberal. That will more than make up for the votes he gets from independents. I wouldnt count on independents anyhow, not after the republicans paint Obama, rightfully, as a liberal with no experience. The theres the hispanic vote too, which a large portion could go to McCain as well.

    Even if Hillary does pull it out somehow she may not be able to get the black vote back. Alot of them may sit it out. In a year that should have been huge for the democrats theyve blown it again.

    Comment by Jonesy — February 11, 2008 @ 1:06 am

  33. HIspanics won’t vote for Obama.

    Comment by Mike Force — February 11, 2008 @ 2:01 am

  34. Hillary Clinton’s strategy is the epitome of brilliant political maneuvering that will assure her either the Democratic Nomination or the destruction of the Democratic Party (if the ensuing primaries are close at all). If the DNC refuses to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates (if Hillary makes a big deal over their removal) they will lose both states. The Democratic nominee cannot win the general election if they lose those states (because the supporters in those states will be less enthused and, even more important, independents have already changed registration to vote in the Republican primary. And since McCain won the primary in Florida (and did well amongst independents in Michigan) he will win these two states). The ensuing Kerfuffle, if the delegates are not seated, will greatly upset the members of the Democratic machine which still run the party. Remember McGovern in ’72? He didn’t have the establishment support and they didn’t do their magic in the cities (re: voter fraud) and he lost in a landslide to NIXON (who escalated an unpopular war in Vietnam). Also, look at how Obama did in California? Without the machine he finished 20 points behind what the polls were projecting. Hillary scares me a lot more than Obama, who lacks the organizational experience and the appeal to the blue collar white Democrats (who fled the party in 72, 80, and 84 and were dispirited in 04) that Hillary is running on. Hillary has the DNC in a vice grip that may cost them the election in 08 or may forever marginalize the DNC. I am so happy I can barely contain myself.

    Comment by J — February 11, 2008 @ 2:12 am

  35. I’ve been sayin’ this for a while. Even if Hilary manages to win legimately, the press’s love affair with Obama coupled with Bill’s nastiness on the campaign trail will disgruntle many democrat voters.

    To win an election, you have to win the swing voters, encourage your base to turn out, and discourage your opponent’s base from turning out.

    Hillary might win some swing voters, but she’ll discourage her base, and encourage the republican base. She’s a loser candidate for sure. Obama would invigorate his base, and there’s not much hate for the man on the right, so it would be up to McCain to invigorate his base (which might be hard for him to do).

    Really, nothing could ensure a republican victory like a Clinton run.

    Comment by Vadept — February 11, 2008 @ 3:53 am

  36. #34, that’s how I see the Dem nomination process fizzing as well. If Hillary gets Florida and Michigan delegates, Obama supporters get to cry foul since he wasn’t allowed to campaign there according to the rules and Hillary swooped in on the last day in manipulation of the rules. If the super delegates vote for Hillary to install her, many of the Obama supporters will not turn out for the election. Howard Dean has also warned against this scenerio. The important thing though is that the Clinton MSM Operatives will be discredited and Obama’s people are not going to have anything to do with them. If I were an Obama supporter I would be very worried if Hillary won the presidency in any event…FBI files…She is vicious and unforgiving when opposed, they either sum up their collective bravery now to stop her or risk years of threats and intimidation.

    The only way this is going to turn out well for the Dems is Hillary conceding the nomination after the first delegate vote. We all know Hillary can’t do that, it’s just not in her nature, she has clawed her way over too many backs and bodies to reach this point, it’s all or nothing even if it takes the Dem Party down with her. She wants this so bad that she sunk $5 mil of her own money in the effort. (btw where did she get $5 mil? with no salary for 8 years and a senator’s salary)

    Comment by dscott — February 11, 2008 @ 3:01 pm

  37. Strategy for OBAMA in Texas and Ohio–Point out how Bill Clinton signed NAFTA and drove out hundreds of thousands of US jobs. Point out how he wants to give Mexican immigrants full amnesty AND drivers licenses and Ms. Clinton doesn’t.

    Knowledge is power. The working class and legal immigrants are voting for her because they don’t know the truth.

    Comment by Lisa W. — February 12, 2008 @ 1:57 am

  38. “He” in the above comment refers to Obama.

    Comment by Lisa W. — February 12, 2008 @ 1:58 am

  39. Blacks and the young will not vote for Hillary Clinton if she’s nominated. She’ll lose to John McCain. I hope that she’s nominated. As dscott stated above, “she’s clawed her way over too many backs and bodies to reach this point.” She and her husband have chose to include blacks in those bodies and I hope she is handily defeated. McCain will make a fine president. He’s not far away from Hillary Clinton or Obama. Joining the military is purely voluntary. It’s just Democrats that want to bring back the draft. Abortion is legal, and McCain can’t touch that anyway. He’s for immigration reform just like the Democrats. Hillary Clinton and her husband are too shady to be back in Washington. They have made being an American a joke around the world. They took our dignity away, and they want another chance. Let’s not give it to them people. Obama will be a real change from the “corrupt” Clintons.

    Comment by MominCT — February 15, 2008 @ 10:02 am

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