March 4, 2008

Super Tuesday Jr. Live Post

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 9:39 pm

1:00 a.m. – Signing off. Hillary is up 55%-43% (233,000 votes) in Ohio with 87% counted (Obama losing by “only” 8% may be possible now), and in Texas 51%-47% (81,000 votes) with 76% counted.

Large Bill’s comment below bears a bring-up: “If a Clinton victory in November can be laid at Limbaugh’s feet he may be greatly diminished as a power broker. I’ve considered Obama easier to beat all along and felt Limbaugh seriously miscalculated on this one. Look at the demographics.” Some people, Rush among them, are trying to be wayyyyy too clever these days.

12:30 a.m. – Obama’s loss in Ohio will almost definitely be by at least 10%. Jerid at Buckeye State Blog isn’t going to be able to play “I knew that” much longer. With 81% counted, Hillary is still up 56-42, and now 240,000 votes. Obama has to win about 55% of the remaining votes — a 24-point swing from results thus far (from -14 to +10) to get within 10%. Doubtful.

12:25 a.m.Nix is now saying that Ron Maag will beat John “Check ‘n Go” Rabenold in the 35th District OH State Rep race by a few hundred votes, based on Rabenold’s lower-than expected margin in Hamco. I’m not so sure…. 12:50 p.m. miniupdate – Rabenold takes Hamco by 1,590 with counting done; Maag is up by 1,816 in Warren County with 13% or so still uncounted. Ron Maag will win by about 400 votes. Out-freaking-standing. Congrats to Mr. Maag and his campaign team for overcoming John Rabenold’s attempted quarter-million dollar purchase of a legislative seat, and to the District’s GOP voters for paying enough attention to prevent it. The “find an independent to stop this nonsense” scenario has been averted.

12:16 a.m. – A Clinton win in Texas looks more likely with each update. She’s up by 55,000 with 63% counted. I may be wrong, but I don’t think there are many large concentrated areas in Texas from which Obama can expect a sudden wave of African-American support to come pouring in, as occurred in Missouri, and as was supposed to happen, but so far hasn’t, in Ohio.

12:11 a.m. – Clinton’s Ohio margin has not shrunk even a little bit. It’s still 14% (now 233,000 votes) with 79% counted. As I said earlier, the press is warming up the C-word (“collapse”) for what some of the overconfident in Ohio were calling “the O-Train” just days ago. I have to admit to being astonished that Mrs. Clinton’s lead has held.

12:04 a.m. – In OH-02, though she has won, I believe Jean Schmidt has underperformed yet again. She’ll probably take Warren County by 1,000 over Brinkman and will less than 50% of the vote. I haven’t looked at the other counties yet (some of them don’t have web sites), but I suspect based on the news today that Clermont, her home county, will once again provide most of her victory margin.

12:01 a.m. – In OH-35 for State Rep, it looks like Maag will get a 2,000-vote lead out of Warren County, as he’s up by 1,816 with 86% counted. Like Nix, I don’t think that’s enough to offset Rabenold’s big advantage in Hamilton County. Yikes.

11:54 p.m. – Will the pundits conclude that Hillary got back in stride tonight thanks to the 1-2 punch of Saturday Night Live (first the media-fawning skit, followed the next week by Mrs. Clinton’s surprise appearance)?

11:45 p.m. – Mrs. Clinton has extended her slim lead in Texas to over 40,000 votes with 52% counted. 11:51 p.m. – Make that almost 50,000 with 53% counted.

11:40 p.m. – Ohio’s governor will be doing is doing the Ted Strickland Strut tonight, as Hillary Clinton’s win gets more impressive with each update. She’s up 56-42 with 70% counted. To draw within 5% at the end, Obama has to win 60% of the rest of the votes. Not, looking, likely.

11:24 p.m. – It’s clear, regardless of the outcome in Texas, in which Hillary has an under 1% lead with 42% of the votes counted, that for the big O(bama), the Big Mo has left the building.

11:17 p.m. – Questions for those of you who crossed over from GOPLand to vote for Hillary tonight, and the alleged geniuses who encouraged it: What if Obama is so weakened that he loses big in Pennsylvania, and accepts the idea of becoming her Veep? How will you feel about your contribution to that near-juggernaut scenario?

11:06 p.m. – Obama is down by over 214,000 in Ohio with 55% of the vote counted. ABC has declared Hillary Clinton the winner. There are not 200,000 votes that Obama will get back in the urban counties of Cuyahoga, Montgomery, Lucas, and Hamilton Counties. Jerid at the lefty Buckeye State Blog, which I half-expect to be decked out in black shortly (with the exception of ModernEsquire, who may be doing cartwheels as I type this), thinks Obama will narrow it to within 5% or so. He’d better get to within 10, or they’re going to start throwing around the C-word in the press. That would be “collapse.” If Obama is a Chicago Cubs fan, that would partially explain the situation.

10:57 p.m.Ben Keeler at The Point is reporting that presidential also-rans Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul have both fended off their congressional primary opponents.

10:50 p.m. – It looks like every bit of Maag’s lead over Rabenold in the Ohio 35th District State rep race is due to his home county of Warren being 70% counted as of this moment. I don’t think Rabenold is in a cold sweat just yet. 11:34 p.m. mini-update – Maag’s lead is down to less than 500 votes, and Rabenold is beating him nearly 3-1 in Hamilton County.

10:46 p.m. – Hillary is up by 16% with almost half the vote counted in OH, and TX looks to be a dead heat. If at the end of the night we see that Obama really has faded this badly in the past two weeks, partial credit has to go to New Media, red and blue, for how the news of various statements and gaffes has traveled far and penetrated the electoral fog. That, and a larger-than-thought crossover to Hillary by Republicans.

10:44 p.m. – Bleep, the 10:38 add went poof. Let’s try again: The Cleveland Plain Dealers Openers blog has projected winners in these congressional races:
- U.S. House District 2 GOP Primary — Jean Schmidt
- U.S. House District 5 GOP Primary — Bob Latta
- U.S. House District 14 Democratic Primary — Bill O’Neill
- U.S. House District 16 Democratic Primary — John Boccieri (BizzyBlog add — “D-Carpetbagland”)
- U.S. House District 18 Democratic Primary — Zack Space

10:25 p.m. – Still early, but it looks like:
- The attempt at a conservative protest vote in the GOP presidential primary won’t impress anyone, as votes for other than McCain and Huck are only about 10% of the total. I think Rs crossing over to Ds sucked all the oxygen out of that idea.
- We may be in for a long night with OH-16 and OH-18 on the GOP side.
- The shock of the night might be in State Rep District 35, as Ron Maag is up on John “Check ‘n Go” Rabenold by over 1,200 votes, with a 52%-27% margin. Be still, my heart…..

10:20 p.m. – Call me low-tech, but I like the link with all individual races in it in regular text that you get to by clicking “Candidate Results” at the SOS Interactive site. Dems are in the top half, GOP is in the bottom. Type “McCain” in your browser’s Find function to get to where the GOP results start (yeah, I’m a little surprised that takes you to Republicans, too :–>). Oh, I see you can click a dialog box to get only Dem or GOP. The downside is that there are no overall presidential race totals. Oh, that’s wrong too; the first “Delegate and Alternate” listing without a number by it represents the statewide total for each candidate.

10:12 p.m. – The Ohio Secretary of State’s interactive results setup looks pretty good. Digging in now for some hard numbers…..

10:09 p.m. – Matt at Weapons of Mass Discussion is all over the congressional, state rep, and state senate races. Just keep scrolling.

10:05 p.m. – Northeast Ohioans who want to check in on results up there, including Dennis Kucinich’s defense of his 10th District congressional seat, might want to check out Ben Keeler’s live coverage at The Point.

10:01 p.m. – I heard on the radio shortly after 9 that there were problems in Cuyahoga County, which is already a habitual laggard in reporting results. Sure enough, at the Plain Dealer’s Openers blog, there’s a list of precincts kept open by a judicial order. Hillary will need a big lead going into the counting of that heavily African-American county, or she’ll see what happened in Missouri on Super Tuesday all over again.

9:57 p.m. – Apparently there’s a good old-fashioned food fight between the Obama and Clinton camps in Ohio and Texas over various aspects of the voting, and in Texas over the post-poll caucuses. Fun times.

9:54 p.m. – Hillary has won Rhode Island handily. Obama has taken Vermont. It’s too early for Ohio, but Clinton’s 20% lead with 18% counted is pretty impressive.

9:45 p.m. – First, some easy stuff. McCain has clinched the GOP nomination and won all four states tonight. Huck has conceded.

9:40 p.m. – This post is live!

I made a pretty good call in surmising that OH’s polls would close late, as they did. I didn’t think it would be because of non-flooded counties, though.

Precinct Report (and More): Turnout So Far Is Heavy

Filed under: OH-02 US House,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:32 am

Special Note: I will begin covering tonight’s results at about 10:00 9:40 p.m.

Ohio’s Secretary of State (link is to a “current election” page) will have an accessible results page beginning at 5 p.m. Polls close in Ohio at 7:30 p.m.

I would not be surprised based on the overnight flooding in some parts of the state if vote counts aren’t delayed a bit.

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I was voter number 35 in my precinct at 8:20 this morning.

By contrast, looking at this 2005 post, there were 81 votes in my precinct as of 40 minutes before the polls closed in that August’s nationally-watched Jean Schmidt-Paul Hackett race (*), and “in the low 40s” at about the same time on OH-02 Primary day in June of that year (&).

UPDATE: As of about 1:45 p.m., the precinct’s vote count was up to 100. That’s with 5-plus hours and the evening rush remaining.

It seems (emphasis “seems”) that a lot of Rs are voting as Ds for HR4C (Hillary Rodham Cackling Crying Complaining Clinton). If she wins Ohio tonight, will Mrs. Clinton thank her Republican supporters for her victory margin?

UPDATE 2: Although I didn’t have a precinct vote count on Primary day in May 2006, the post I put up that day clearly indicates that today’s precinct turnout will far exceed that one.

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& – Shameless Blogospheric Plug/History Lesson 1: Current congresswoman Jean Schmidt’s June 2005 special GOP primary victory over a field of ten others was partially (and somewhat inadvertently) brought to you by various members of the then-nascent center-right blogosphere (founding members Weapons of Mass Discussion, BizzyBlog, NixGuy, Porkopolis, Viking Spirit, and Project LOGIC) in Southern Ohio, who formed the founding core of what is now the State of Ohio Blog Alliance.

* – Shameless Blogospheric Plug/History Lesson 2: Current congresswoman Jean Schmidt’s August 2005 special election victory over “The Ohio Insurgency” of Paul Hackett was partially (and quite intentionally) brought to you by by Ohio’s center-right blogosphere in cooperation with Hackett pretend-Republican video poster Trey Jackson, with an “assist” (heh) from Rush Limbaugh.

Dem Presidential Primary: The Lay of the Land, and BOOHOO’s ‘Boohoo Booboo’

Filed under: MSM Biz/Other Bias,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:04 am

I still stand by my prediction 3-1/2 weeks ago that the candidate I refer to as HR4C (Hillary Rodham Cackling Crying Complaining Clinton) will not be the next President of the United States.

She looked dead and buried after Super Tuesday and the roughly 10 contests that followed. Now there’s at least a pulse.

Who would have anticipated that the candidate I refer to as BOOHOO (Barack O-bomba Overseas Hussein “Obambi” Obama) would stumble as badly as he has?

Don’t let the still-frequent “Messiah” talk fool you. The bloom has been coming off this rose at (for his supporters) an alarming rate. It wasn’t until Bill Clinton was in office for a while that scandal fatigue set in. I’m starting to feel it with Obama, and it’s eight months BEFORE November’s elections.

I still think Obama will win in Ohio and Texas today, but probably not by the double-digit margins that seemed assured in the wake of Beltway Tuesday and Wisconsin. The Illinois senator has done an awful lot to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory since then — so much that I’m not going to chronicle it all, in the interest of keeping this post shorter than a book. Suffice it to say that at this rate, if the primaries were a week from now instead of today, he might have been on track to lose them both.

There may even be enough visible chinks in his armor after tonight that the calls for Mrs. Clinton to withdraw, even with two narrow losses, might not come.

And here’s a final pre-primary “booboo” by BOOHOO — Obama is described in various places today (here and here, for starters) as having in essence stalked out of a press conference on the Rezko situation yesterday (“Obama answered curtly and then walked out after a staffer called last question”). Does anyone remember Bill Clinton doing anything like this during his 1992 presidential campaign? Grouches are not convincing as Messiahs.

Thank goodness Chicago reporters, doing a job the rest of Old Media won’t do, decided to ask some (emphasis “some”) tough questions (Update: This Washington Post report by Dana Milbank indicates that Reuters and AP were among the “lumbering beasts” in the press corps that “finally roused itself from its slumber”).

Talk host Mark Levin last night asked another that deserves an answer: “Senator Obama, you have previously said that you ‘made a mistake’ in the Rezko situation? What was that mistake?” We’ve never heard an answer to that, and voters deserve to know. Reverse Spin has yet another question.

Referring back to BOOHOO’s “boohoo” press-conference disposition — Barnyard Conservative refers back to this BizzyBlog item from December 2006 and wonders “if Maureen Dowd will write about this latest sensitive side of Barack.” Well, Dowd WAS worried about toughening him up. But because Obama had a free pass for over a year from Old Media, that never happened. It shows, and it will hurt him.

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UPDATE: It looks like BOOHOO and his wife, Michelle LaVaughn Robinson Obama, are the ones that should have been on Saturday Night Live a few days ago. Based on this complaint (“Press Bought Into Clinton Line on Bias”), they could have reprised The Whiners.

Couldn’t Help But Notice (030408)

Memo to Victoria Wells Wulsin Whatever: Assuming you win the OH-02 Democratic Primary today, this isn’t going away (HT The Bellwether Daily via NixGuy), even if your buds at the Cincinnati Enquirer continue to protect you. You’ve had two years to fix this; I’m assuming that you would have, if you could have.

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What this Washington Post article is trying to say, but won’t, is that Victoria’s Secret stores crossed the line from sexy into sleazy several years ago. Now they’re trying to crawl back.

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YouTube is going live.

That’s great, but I hope some alternative outlets do the same. YouTube management has acquired a serious case of political correctness (examples here and here) that in the long run could make bias from the likes of Dan Rather et al seem like the good old days.

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Recent Old Media outrages spotted at NewsBusters:

  • From Scott Whitlock, “ABC’s Chris Cuomo: Prince Harry ‘Expendable’” — “‘Good Morning America’ co-host Chris Cuomo joked on Monday’s show that Britain’s Prince Harry ‘has been over in Afghanistan fighting because he’s expendable. ….. The reason that Harry is allowed to be in Afghanistan is because he’s not the heir to the throne. William’s not allowed to be there.’” Cuomo’s remarks were not only tasteless, they are untrue, as William is scheduled “to be depoloyed on the frontline.”
  • Martin Finkelstein, “NYT Term for Eco-Terrorists: ‘Anti-Sprawl Activists’” — incomprehensible near-sympathy at the New York Times (“House Fires With a Message in the Northwest”) for the eco-terrorists (term used by the AP) who did millions in damage to four model homes north of Seattle. The homes appear to have been targeted because they were built using so-called “green” techniques; in essence, the eco-terrorists wanted us to know that the mere act of attempting to build something violates their sick view of an ideal world. I wonder if the Times would be so sympathetic to “message deliverers” if any targeted Times Company property?
  • Lynn Davidson, “Expert: IDF Didn’t Shoot Intifada Icon Mohammad al-Dura; Media Yawn” — Before the term “fauxtography” was coined, there was the incident that gave rise. It involved the claim that “(Israeli soldiers) killed the boy who was crouching behind his father during a gunfight between Israeli soldiers and Palestinian shooters.” It has been shown beyond doubt to have been staged.

Positivity: DVD in firefighter’s coat pocket blocks a bullet

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 5:57 am

From Walterboro, South Carolina:

He was walking out of the Waffle House when a bullet from a fight hit him

A South Carolina man is thankful for a DVD that ended up taking a bullet for him.

Colleton County Fire and Rescue Director Barry McRoy said he was leaving a Waffle House restaurant in Walterboro on Saturday morning when two men ran in fighting over a gun.

Police say a bullet hit one of the struggling men, shattered a window and then hit McRoy.

The bullet hit a DVD McRoy was carrying in his pocket. He suffered a bruise but didn’t realize he had been shot. As he told a police officer what happened he noticed a bullet hole in his jacket, the shattered DVD case and a piece of the bullet.

“I was saved by a DVD,” McRoy said. “How lucky can you get?” …..

Go here for the rest of the story.