March 4, 2008

Super Tuesday Jr. Live Post

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 9:39 pm

1:00 a.m. – Signing off. Hillary is up 55%-43% (233,000 votes) in Ohio with 87% counted (Obama losing by “only” 8% may be possible now), and in Texas 51%-47% (81,000 votes) with 76% counted.

Large Bill’s comment below bears a bring-up: “If a Clinton victory in November can be laid at Limbaugh’s feet he may be greatly diminished as a power broker. I’ve considered Obama easier to beat all along and felt Limbaugh seriously miscalculated on this one. Look at the demographics.” Some people, Rush among them, are trying to be wayyyyy too clever these days.

12:30 a.m. – Obama’s loss in Ohio will almost definitely be by at least 10%. Jerid at Buckeye State Blog isn’t going to be able to play “I knew that” much longer. With 81% counted, Hillary is still up 56-42, and now 240,000 votes. Obama has to win about 55% of the remaining votes — a 24-point swing from results thus far (from -14 to +10) to get within 10%. Doubtful.

12:25 a.m.Nix is now saying that Ron Maag will beat John “Check ‘n Go” Rabenold in the 35th District OH State Rep race by a few hundred votes, based on Rabenold’s lower-than expected margin in Hamco. I’m not so sure…. 12:50 p.m. miniupdate – Rabenold takes Hamco by 1,590 with counting done; Maag is up by 1,816 in Warren County with 13% or so still uncounted. Ron Maag will win by about 400 votes. Out-freaking-standing. Congrats to Mr. Maag and his campaign team for overcoming John Rabenold’s attempted quarter-million dollar purchase of a legislative seat, and to the District’s GOP voters for paying enough attention to prevent it. The “find an independent to stop this nonsense” scenario has been averted.

12:16 a.m. – A Clinton win in Texas looks more likely with each update. She’s up by 55,000 with 63% counted. I may be wrong, but I don’t think there are many large concentrated areas in Texas from which Obama can expect a sudden wave of African-American support to come pouring in, as occurred in Missouri, and as was supposed to happen, but so far hasn’t, in Ohio.

12:11 a.m. – Clinton’s Ohio margin has not shrunk even a little bit. It’s still 14% (now 233,000 votes) with 79% counted. As I said earlier, the press is warming up the C-word (“collapse”) for what some of the overconfident in Ohio were calling “the O-Train” just days ago. I have to admit to being astonished that Mrs. Clinton’s lead has held.

12:04 a.m. – In OH-02, though she has won, I believe Jean Schmidt has underperformed yet again. She’ll probably take Warren County by 1,000 over Brinkman and will less than 50% of the vote. I haven’t looked at the other counties yet (some of them don’t have web sites), but I suspect based on the news today that Clermont, her home county, will once again provide most of her victory margin.

12:01 a.m. – In OH-35 for State Rep, it looks like Maag will get a 2,000-vote lead out of Warren County, as he’s up by 1,816 with 86% counted. Like Nix, I don’t think that’s enough to offset Rabenold’s big advantage in Hamilton County. Yikes.

11:54 p.m. – Will the pundits conclude that Hillary got back in stride tonight thanks to the 1-2 punch of Saturday Night Live (first the media-fawning skit, followed the next week by Mrs. Clinton’s surprise appearance)?

11:45 p.m. – Mrs. Clinton has extended her slim lead in Texas to over 40,000 votes with 52% counted. 11:51 p.m. – Make that almost 50,000 with 53% counted.

11:40 p.m. – Ohio’s governor will be doing is doing the Ted Strickland Strut tonight, as Hillary Clinton’s win gets more impressive with each update. She’s up 56-42 with 70% counted. To draw within 5% at the end, Obama has to win 60% of the rest of the votes. Not, looking, likely.

11:24 p.m. – It’s clear, regardless of the outcome in Texas, in which Hillary has an under 1% lead with 42% of the votes counted, that for the big O(bama), the Big Mo has left the building.

11:17 p.m. – Questions for those of you who crossed over from GOPLand to vote for Hillary tonight, and the alleged geniuses who encouraged it: What if Obama is so weakened that he loses big in Pennsylvania, and accepts the idea of becoming her Veep? How will you feel about your contribution to that near-juggernaut scenario?

11:06 p.m. – Obama is down by over 214,000 in Ohio with 55% of the vote counted. ABC has declared Hillary Clinton the winner. There are not 200,000 votes that Obama will get back in the urban counties of Cuyahoga, Montgomery, Lucas, and Hamilton Counties. Jerid at the lefty Buckeye State Blog, which I half-expect to be decked out in black shortly (with the exception of ModernEsquire, who may be doing cartwheels as I type this), thinks Obama will narrow it to within 5% or so. He’d better get to within 10, or they’re going to start throwing around the C-word in the press. That would be “collapse.” If Obama is a Chicago Cubs fan, that would partially explain the situation.

10:57 p.m.Ben Keeler at The Point is reporting that presidential also-rans Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul have both fended off their congressional primary opponents.

10:50 p.m. – It looks like every bit of Maag’s lead over Rabenold in the Ohio 35th District State rep race is due to his home county of Warren being 70% counted as of this moment. I don’t think Rabenold is in a cold sweat just yet. 11:34 p.m. mini-update – Maag’s lead is down to less than 500 votes, and Rabenold is beating him nearly 3-1 in Hamilton County.

10:46 p.m. – Hillary is up by 16% with almost half the vote counted in OH, and TX looks to be a dead heat. If at the end of the night we see that Obama really has faded this badly in the past two weeks, partial credit has to go to New Media, red and blue, for how the news of various statements and gaffes has traveled far and penetrated the electoral fog. That, and a larger-than-thought crossover to Hillary by Republicans.

10:44 p.m. – Bleep, the 10:38 add went poof. Let’s try again: The Cleveland Plain Dealers Openers blog has projected winners in these congressional races:
- U.S. House District 2 GOP Primary — Jean Schmidt
- U.S. House District 5 GOP Primary — Bob Latta
- U.S. House District 14 Democratic Primary — Bill O’Neill
- U.S. House District 16 Democratic Primary — John Boccieri (BizzyBlog add — “D-Carpetbagland”)
- U.S. House District 18 Democratic Primary — Zack Space

10:25 p.m. – Still early, but it looks like:
- The attempt at a conservative protest vote in the GOP presidential primary won’t impress anyone, as votes for other than McCain and Huck are only about 10% of the total. I think Rs crossing over to Ds sucked all the oxygen out of that idea.
- We may be in for a long night with OH-16 and OH-18 on the GOP side.
- The shock of the night might be in State Rep District 35, as Ron Maag is up on John “Check ‘n Go” Rabenold by over 1,200 votes, with a 52%-27% margin. Be still, my heart…..

10:20 p.m. – Call me low-tech, but I like the link with all individual races in it in regular text that you get to by clicking “Candidate Results” at the SOS Interactive site. Dems are in the top half, GOP is in the bottom. Type “McCain” in your browser’s Find function to get to where the GOP results start (yeah, I’m a little surprised that takes you to Republicans, too :–>). Oh, I see you can click a dialog box to get only Dem or GOP. The downside is that there are no overall presidential race totals. Oh, that’s wrong too; the first “Delegate and Alternate” listing without a number by it represents the statewide total for each candidate.

10:12 p.m. – The Ohio Secretary of State’s interactive results setup looks pretty good. Digging in now for some hard numbers…..

10:09 p.m. – Matt at Weapons of Mass Discussion is all over the congressional, state rep, and state senate races. Just keep scrolling.

10:05 p.m. – Northeast Ohioans who want to check in on results up there, including Dennis Kucinich’s defense of his 10th District congressional seat, might want to check out Ben Keeler’s live coverage at The Point.

10:01 p.m. – I heard on the radio shortly after 9 that there were problems in Cuyahoga County, which is already a habitual laggard in reporting results. Sure enough, at the Plain Dealer’s Openers blog, there’s a list of precincts kept open by a judicial order. Hillary will need a big lead going into the counting of that heavily African-American county, or she’ll see what happened in Missouri on Super Tuesday all over again.

9:57 p.m. – Apparently there’s a good old-fashioned food fight between the Obama and Clinton camps in Ohio and Texas over various aspects of the voting, and in Texas over the post-poll caucuses. Fun times.

9:54 p.m. – Hillary has won Rhode Island handily. Obama has taken Vermont. It’s too early for Ohio, but Clinton’s 20% lead with 18% counted is pretty impressive.

9:45 p.m. – First, some easy stuff. McCain has clinched the GOP nomination and won all four states tonight. Huck has conceded.

9:40 p.m. – This post is live!

I made a pretty good call in surmising that OH’s polls would close late, as they did. I didn’t think it would be because of non-flooded counties, though.

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11 Comments

  1. [...] Bizzy tipped me off to that.   Also looks like Hillary will have a comeback kid narrative warmed up and ready to go right about… now. Filed under: Campaign 2008 by — Dave @ 11:12 pm [...]

    Pingback by NixGuy.com » Spoke too soon on District 35 — March 4, 2008 @ 11:12 pm

  2. Take a look at this!!!

    Miller, Matt (R) 47.18% 6,862
    Schuring, Kirk (R) 47.11% 6,852
    Schiffer, Paul (R) 5.71% 830

    10 friggin’ votes!

    Comment by Brian — March 4, 2008 @ 11:28 pm

  3. If a Clinton victory in November can be laid at Limbaugh feet he may be greatly diminished as a power broker. I’ve considered Obama easier to beat all along and felt Limbaugh seriously miscalculated on this one. Look at the demographics. If Clinton is the nominee she will still get the 90% of the black vote that Obama would. However, if Obama is the nominee does anyone expect he would get the same percentage of female vote she likely will? Those who crossed over will bear responsibility for the results.

    Comment by largebill — March 4, 2008 @ 11:36 pm

  4. #2, I noticed. Amazing. Have been waiting forever for an update. Oh, there is one, and it’s still within 274 votes, with Schuring up.

    #3, exactly. That’s why I personally avoided crossing over, and implied that others shouldn’t. I don’t think it’s EVER a good idea to cast a vote for someone you really don’t want to be president.

    Comment by TBlumer — March 5, 2008 @ 12:40 am

  5. #3, I wouldn’t take it to the bank on the 90% of the Black vote for Hillary. We need to see how the Dem nomination process plays out. I suspect that the Clinton machine will be going for blood given that there is no way they can clinch the nomination prior to the convention. Clinton must win decisively in all the remaining primaries in order to reasonably claim or rather convince Black voters and other Obama supporters that the Super delegates have not rigged the results. Up to this point, it is generally assumed and acknowledged Clinton had the Super delegates sowed up for the nomination BEFORE the primaries began. In decisively winning, the Clintons have a very bad habit of engaging in discrediting and crushing their rivals. If Obama is man-handled as it were, there will be so much bad blood within the Dem party that no amount of Clinton spin will overcome. I know some Obama supporters, they are in no mood for the Clintons, they want CHANGE from the sleazy business as usual politics of the Clintons.

    As far as I am concerned, things are on track for an angry Dem Convention and resulting split in the Party. With the likes of Ted Kennedy fantasizing over Camelot, the slap of reality is simply too much for them to handle. I predict a replay of Ted’s failed attempt at the Dem nomination vicariously using Obama as the surrogate. Clinton will get the nomination, she has planned laid the ground work too thoroughly to fail now.

    As for McCain getting enough delegates to clinch the nomination, well, let’s just say that if he doesn’t change his tune toward the Conservatives, the race between Clinton and McCain will be decided by the one who has offended the least number of people. The Clinton campaign slogan will essentially be vote for me, I’m not a male or Republican. The McCain campaign slogan will be vote for me, I’m not a Clinton or a Democrat.

    Comment by dscott — March 5, 2008 @ 8:38 am

  6. I don’t think there is a way for Hillary to win ALL of the remaining primaries. WY, MS, and OR favor Obama. Everything else favors Hillary.

    Comment by Brian — March 5, 2008 @ 10:16 am

  7. [...] at the right wing Bizzy Blog, the question is asked [...]

    Pingback by I Smell A Bit Fat Rat (and his name is O’Brien, among others) « Bad American — March 5, 2008 @ 1:17 pm

  8. Giving credit to a Hillary win in November to cross-over voters is ridiculous. Anyway, voters make their own decisions about participating in a primary/caucus. Crossing over is pefectly acceptable for Democrats too! It’s Hillary’s race to lose and McCain’s race to win. Period.

    Comment by Michael — March 5, 2008 @ 1:56 pm

  9. [...] at the right wing Bizzy Blog, the question is asked [...]

    Pingback by I Smell A Bit Fat Rat (and his name is O’Brien, among others) at Henricus — March 5, 2008 @ 2:41 pm

  10. #8, FWIW, Large Bill gave possible “credit to a Hillary win in November” to the cross-overs. It’s obviously too early, and too much can happen.

    But the cross-overs did a lot to keep her nomination hopes alive. If she comes back to win the nomination and does win in November, Republicans and conservatives will likely look back on March 4, 2008 as a day that will live in infamy.

    What the GOP cross-overs did is extend Mrs. Clinton’s margin in OH, and give that win stronger stature than it really deserves. If, as is being estimated, 100,000 GOPers really did cross over to vote for her in Ohio (with very few doing so for Obama), she owes at least 40% of her 227,000-vote victory margin to them. So she “should” have won by an expectations-matching 6% instead of an expectations-whipping 10%-plus. She would still be viable today anyway, but much less impressively.

    It could be that crossovers in TX, where her victory margin was less than 100,000 votes in a much larger electorate, changed the outcome in her favor. How much cackling would she be doing today if she had split the two big states instead of winning them both?

    My point is that too-clever GOPers played with fire when they crossed over. Dems have taken similar dumb risks in other circumstances. It’s too easy to get burned and for unintended consequences to occur, and I don’t think it’s a good idea for either side to engage in it. I have a difficult time countering the argument that it’s morally very questionable to vote for someone in a primary you have no intention of voting for in the general. Tired Spiderman reference: The great power of the vote comes with great responsibility.

    I’m very surprised at how Obama has crumbled in the past two weeks. A lot of it is self-inflicted, and I see it continuing. Indications are that Obama is becoming the less-viable candidate on his own after having nearly secured the nomination. If true, his getting the nomination is the ideal GOP scenario.

    Hillary, it turns out, didn’t need the “help.” Without the “help,” she would have had an OK night last night. With the “help,” she had a great night, made a full comeback towards winning the nomination plausible, and as I said, made the IMO Clinton-Obama nightmare ticket more likely.

    With “friends” like the GOP crossovers, who needs enemies?

    Comment by TBlumer — March 5, 2008 @ 3:22 pm

  11. http://savagepolitics.com/?p=177 here is a look from a different point of view.

    Comment by dscott — March 5, 2008 @ 3:45 pm

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