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	<title>Comments on: Super Tuesday Jr. Live Post</title>
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	<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/</link>
	<description>The Business End of the Blogosphere</description>
	<pubDate>Sat, 30 Aug 2008 06:45:39 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: dscott</title>
		<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120855</link>
		<dc:creator>dscott</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Mar 2008 20:45:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120855</guid>
		<description>http://savagepolitics.com/?p=177  here is a look from a different point of view.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://savagepolitics.com/?p=177" rel="nofollow">http://savagepolitics.com/?p=177</a>  here is a look from a different point of view.</p>
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		<title>By: TBlumer</title>
		<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120854</link>
		<dc:creator>TBlumer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Mar 2008 20:22:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120854</guid>
		<description>#8, FWIW, Large Bill gave possible "credit to a Hillary win in November" to the cross-overs. It's obviously too early, and too much can happen.

But the cross-overs did a lot to keep her nomination hopes alive. If she comes back to win the nomination and does win in November, Republicans and conservatives will likely look back on March 4, 2008 as a day that will live in infamy.

What the GOP cross-overs did is extend Mrs. Clinton's margin in OH, and give that win stronger stature than it really deserves. If, as is being estimated, 100,000 GOPers really did cross over to vote for her in Ohio (with very few doing so for Obama), she owes at least 40% of her 227,000-vote victory margin to them. So she "should" have won by an expectations-matching 6% instead of an expectations-whipping 10%-plus. She would still be viable today anyway, but much less impressively.

It could be that crossovers in TX, where her victory margin was less than 100,000 votes in a much larger electorate, changed the outcome in her favor. How much cackling would she be doing today if she had split the two big states instead of winning them both?

My point is that too-clever GOPers played with fire when they crossed over. Dems have taken similar dumb risks in other circumstances. It's too easy to get burned and for unintended consequences to occur, and I don't think it's a good idea for either side to engage in it. I have a difficult time countering the argument that it's morally very questionable to vote for someone in a primary you have no intention of voting for in the general. Tired Spiderman reference: The great power of the vote comes with great responsibility.

I'm very surprised at how Obama has crumbled in the past two weeks. A lot of it is self-inflicted, and I see it continuing. Indications are that Obama is becoming the less-viable candidate on his own after having nearly secured the nomination. If true, his getting the nomination is the ideal GOP scenario.

Hillary, it turns out, didn't need the "help." Without the "help," she would have had an OK night last night. With the "help," she had a great night, made a full comeback towards winning the nomination plausible, and as I said, made the IMO Clinton-Obama nightmare ticket more likely.

With "friends" like the GOP crossovers, who needs enemies?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#8, FWIW, Large Bill gave possible &#8220;credit to a Hillary win in November&#8221; to the cross-overs. It&#8217;s obviously too early, and too much can happen.</p>
<p>But the cross-overs did a lot to keep her nomination hopes alive. If she comes back to win the nomination and does win in November, Republicans and conservatives will likely look back on March 4, 2008 as a day that will live in infamy.</p>
<p>What the GOP cross-overs did is extend Mrs. Clinton&#8217;s margin in OH, and give that win stronger stature than it really deserves. If, as is being estimated, 100,000 GOPers really did cross over to vote for her in Ohio (with very few doing so for Obama), she owes at least 40% of her 227,000-vote victory margin to them. So she &#8220;should&#8221; have won by an expectations-matching 6% instead of an expectations-whipping 10%-plus. She would still be viable today anyway, but much less impressively.</p>
<p>It could be that crossovers in TX, where her victory margin was less than 100,000 votes in a much larger electorate, changed the outcome in her favor. How much cackling would she be doing today if she had split the two big states instead of winning them both?</p>
<p>My point is that too-clever GOPers played with fire when they crossed over. Dems have taken similar dumb risks in other circumstances. It&#8217;s too easy to get burned and for unintended consequences to occur, and I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s a good idea for either side to engage in it. I have a difficult time countering the argument that it&#8217;s morally very questionable to vote for someone in a primary you have no intention of voting for in the general. Tired Spiderman reference: The great power of the vote comes with great responsibility.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m very surprised at how Obama has crumbled in the past two weeks. A lot of it is self-inflicted, and I see it continuing. Indications are that Obama is becoming the less-viable candidate on his own after having nearly secured the nomination. If true, his getting the nomination is the ideal GOP scenario.</p>
<p>Hillary, it turns out, didn&#8217;t need the &#8220;help.&#8221; Without the &#8220;help,&#8221; she would have had an OK night last night. With the &#8220;help,&#8221; she had a great night, made a full comeback towards winning the nomination plausible, and as I said, made the IMO Clinton-Obama nightmare ticket more likely.</p>
<p>With &#8220;friends&#8221; like the GOP crossovers, who needs enemies?</p>
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		<title>By: I Smell A Bit Fat Rat (and his name is Oâ€™Brien, among others) at Henricus</title>
		<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120853</link>
		<dc:creator>I Smell A Bit Fat Rat (and his name is Oâ€™Brien, among others) at Henricus</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Mar 2008 19:41:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120853</guid>
		<description>[...] at the right wing Bizzy Blog, the question is asked [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] at the right wing Bizzy Blog, the question is asked [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>By: Michael</title>
		<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120852</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Mar 2008 18:56:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120852</guid>
		<description>Giving credit to a Hillary win in November to cross-over voters is ridiculous.  Anyway, voters make their own decisions about participating in a primary/caucus.  Crossing over is pefectly acceptable for Democrats too!  It's Hillary's race to lose and McCain's race to win. Period.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Giving credit to a Hillary win in November to cross-over voters is ridiculous.  Anyway, voters make their own decisions about participating in a primary/caucus.  Crossing over is pefectly acceptable for Democrats too!  It&#8217;s Hillary&#8217;s race to lose and McCain&#8217;s race to win. Period.</p>
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		<title>By: I Smell A Bit Fat Rat (and his name is O&#8217;Brien, among others) &#171; Bad American</title>
		<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120851</link>
		<dc:creator>I Smell A Bit Fat Rat (and his name is O&#8217;Brien, among others) &#171; Bad American</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Mar 2008 18:17:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120851</guid>
		<description>[...] at the right wing Bizzy Blog, the question is asked [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] at the right wing Bizzy Blog, the question is asked [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>By: Brian</title>
		<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120849</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Mar 2008 15:16:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120849</guid>
		<description>I don't think there is a way for Hillary to win ALL of the remaining primaries. WY, MS, and OR favor Obama. Everything else favors Hillary.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t think there is a way for Hillary to win ALL of the remaining primaries. WY, MS, and OR favor Obama. Everything else favors Hillary.</p>
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		<title>By: dscott</title>
		<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120844</link>
		<dc:creator>dscott</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Mar 2008 13:38:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120844</guid>
		<description>#3, I wouldn't take it to the bank on the 90% of the Black vote for Hillary.  We need to see how the Dem nomination process plays out.  I suspect that the Clinton machine will be going for blood given that there is no way they can clinch the nomination prior to the convention.  Clinton must win decisively in all the remaining primaries in order to reasonably claim or rather convince Black voters and other Obama supporters that the Super delegates have not rigged the results.  Up to this point, it is generally assumed and acknowledged Clinton had the Super delegates sowed up for the nomination BEFORE the primaries began.  In decisively winning, the Clintons have a very bad habit of engaging in discrediting and crushing their rivals.  If Obama is man-handled as it were, there will be so much bad blood within the Dem party that no amount of Clinton spin will overcome.  I know some Obama supporters, they are in no mood for the Clintons, they want CHANGE from the sleazy business as usual politics of the Clintons.   

As far as I am concerned, things are on track for an angry Dem Convention and resulting split in the Party.  With the likes of Ted Kennedy fantasizing over Camelot, the slap of reality is simply too much for them to handle.  I predict a replay of Ted's failed attempt at the Dem nomination vicariously using Obama as the surrogate.  Clinton will get the nomination, she has planned laid the ground work too thoroughly to fail now.

As for McCain getting enough delegates to clinch the nomination, well, let's just say that if he doesn't change his tune toward the Conservatives, the race between Clinton and McCain will be decided by the one who has offended the least number of people.  The Clinton campaign slogan will essentially be vote for me, I'm not a male or Republican.  The McCain campaign slogan will be vote for me, I'm not a Clinton or a Democrat.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#3, I wouldn&#8217;t take it to the bank on the 90% of the Black vote for Hillary.  We need to see how the Dem nomination process plays out.  I suspect that the Clinton machine will be going for blood given that there is no way they can clinch the nomination prior to the convention.  Clinton must win decisively in all the remaining primaries in order to reasonably claim or rather convince Black voters and other Obama supporters that the Super delegates have not rigged the results.  Up to this point, it is generally assumed and acknowledged Clinton had the Super delegates sowed up for the nomination BEFORE the primaries began.  In decisively winning, the Clintons have a very bad habit of engaging in discrediting and crushing their rivals.  If Obama is man-handled as it were, there will be so much bad blood within the Dem party that no amount of Clinton spin will overcome.  I know some Obama supporters, they are in no mood for the Clintons, they want CHANGE from the sleazy business as usual politics of the Clintons.   </p>
<p>As far as I am concerned, things are on track for an angry Dem Convention and resulting split in the Party.  With the likes of Ted Kennedy fantasizing over Camelot, the slap of reality is simply too much for them to handle.  I predict a replay of Ted&#8217;s failed attempt at the Dem nomination vicariously using Obama as the surrogate.  Clinton will get the nomination, she has planned laid the ground work too thoroughly to fail now.</p>
<p>As for McCain getting enough delegates to clinch the nomination, well, let&#8217;s just say that if he doesn&#8217;t change his tune toward the Conservatives, the race between Clinton and McCain will be decided by the one who has offended the least number of people.  The Clinton campaign slogan will essentially be vote for me, I&#8217;m not a male or Republican.  The McCain campaign slogan will be vote for me, I&#8217;m not a Clinton or a Democrat.</p>
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		<title>By: TBlumer</title>
		<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120841</link>
		<dc:creator>TBlumer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Mar 2008 05:40:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120841</guid>
		<description>#2, I noticed. Amazing. Have been waiting forever for an update. Oh, there is one, and it's still within 274 votes, with Schuring up.

#3, exactly. That's why I personally avoided crossing over, and implied that others shouldn't. I don't think it's EVER a good idea to cast a vote for someone you really don't want to be president.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#2, I noticed. Amazing. Have been waiting forever for an update. Oh, there is one, and it&#8217;s still within 274 votes, with Schuring up.</p>
<p>#3, exactly. That&#8217;s why I personally avoided crossing over, and implied that others shouldn&#8217;t. I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s EVER a good idea to cast a vote for someone you really don&#8217;t want to be president.</p>
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		<title>By: largebill</title>
		<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120839</link>
		<dc:creator>largebill</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Mar 2008 04:36:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120839</guid>
		<description>If a Clinton victory in November can be laid at Limbaugh feet he may be greatly diminished as a power broker.  I've considered Obama easier to beat all along and felt Limbaugh seriously miscalculated on this one.  Look at the demographics.  If Clinton is the nominee she will still get the 90% of the black vote that Obama would.  However, if Obama is the nominee does anyone expect he would get the same percentage of female vote she likely will?  Those who crossed over will bear responsibility for the results.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If a Clinton victory in November can be laid at Limbaugh feet he may be greatly diminished as a power broker.  I&#8217;ve considered Obama easier to beat all along and felt Limbaugh seriously miscalculated on this one.  Look at the demographics.  If Clinton is the nominee she will still get the 90% of the black vote that Obama would.  However, if Obama is the nominee does anyone expect he would get the same percentage of female vote she likely will?  Those who crossed over will bear responsibility for the results.</p>
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		<title>By: Brian</title>
		<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120838</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Mar 2008 04:28:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120838</guid>
		<description>Take a look at this!!!

Miller, Matt (R) 	47.18% 	6,862
Schuring, Kirk (R) 	47.11% 	6,852
Schiffer, Paul (R) 	5.71% 	830

10 friggin' votes!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Take a look at this!!!</p>
<p>Miller, Matt (R) 	47.18% 	6,862<br />
Schuring, Kirk (R) 	47.11% 	6,852<br />
Schiffer, Paul (R) 	5.71% 	830</p>
<p>10 friggin&#8217; votes!</p>
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		<title>By: NixGuy.com &#187; Spoke too soon on District 35</title>
		<link>http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120837</link>
		<dc:creator>NixGuy.com &#187; Spoke too soon on District 35</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Mar 2008 04:12:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/04/super-tuesday-jr-live-post/#comment-120837</guid>
		<description>[...] Bizzy tipped me off to that.&#160;&#160; Also looks like Hillary will have a comeback kid narrative warmed up and ready to go right about&#8230; now.   Filed under: Campaign 2008 by &#8212; Dave @ 11:12 pm [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] Bizzy tipped me off to that.&nbsp;&nbsp; Also looks like Hillary will have a comeback kid narrative warmed up and ready to go right about&#8230; now.   Filed under: Campaign 2008 by &#8212; Dave @ 11:12 pm [&#8230;]</p>
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