Dem Delegate Math (031008)

Here is my take on where it stands, and what it would take Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic presidential nomination (anyone with a correction can leave a comment of send an e-mail):

The starting point is the current situation in the first chart, beginning with where it stands according to Real Clear Politics.

The RCP adjustment to Texas is there because, according to press reports like this one, the final Texas delegate tally is 98 for Obama (61 from the election plus 37 from the caucuses) and 95 for Clinton (65+30). RCP currently has it at 92-92, so I have added 6 for Obama and 3 for Clinton. Obama fans have been crowing that they “won” Texas by coming out of the Lone Star State with more delegates.

599 delegates will be contested in the remaining primaries, and there are, according to RCP, still 18 unpledged delegates in states where primaries have already been held (specifically, 10 in CO; 3 in Dems Abroad; 2 in OH; and 1 each in HI, DC, and RI).

The second chart shows that to win outright without gaining any additional superdelegates (”superdels”), Obama would have to win 70% of the remaining primary 617 delegates noted in the previous paragraph; Clinton would have to win 90% of them.

Barring an unanticipated meltdown in one of the campaigns, neither candidate will be able to win without getting more superdels. Mrs. Clinton will in all likelihood be mathematically unable to win without more superdels after Pennsylvania’s primary. The same will most likely happen to Obama after May 6’s North Carolina and Indiana primaries.

The third chart shows that if the two candidates fight to a draw for the remaining primary delegates, Obama will need to get 36% of the 340 unpledged superdelegates to win; Clinton will have to get 72% of them.

The raw math is clearly on Obama’s side. What no one can factor in is:

• Superdels changing their minds, as has happened at least once already (with John Lewis in Georgia). It appears that any superdel can change his or her mind any time before the first ballot at the convention.
• What the party does with Michigan and/or Florida, though I’m not sure either candidate will gain a clear majority of both states combined.
• Pledged delegates changing their minds — something Mrs. Clinton made crystal clear is not off the table in a Newsweek interview:
  

  How can you win the nomination when the math looks so bleak for you?
  It doesn’t look bleak at all. I have a very close race with Senator Obama. There are elected delegates, caucus delegates and superdelegates, all for different reasons, and they’re all equal in their ability to cast their vote for whomever they choose. Even elected and caucus delegates are not required to stay with whomever they are pledged to. This is a very carefully constructed process that goes back years, and we’re going to follow the process.

  As Rich Lowry at the Corner says, it “Depends on What ‘Pledged’ Means.”

• What John Edwards does. Even with only 26 delegates, he has the potential to be a kingmaker/queenmaker in the right set of circumstances.
• Any other potential un-democratic Democratic tactics beyond what we’ve seen carried out or considered already.

______________________________________________

UPDATE: For all the hoopla over Hillary Clinton’s “resurgence,” the net result from OH, TX, RI, VT, and WY this past weekend is that, with three delegates pending in those states, she has cut Obama’s deficit by all of five delegates.

UPDATE 2: I’ll revise the above after Missisippi’s primary on Tuesday, and, thankfully, will be able to leave it alone for six weeks after that until Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary.

UPDATE 3: Hillary has three ideas for beating Obama — “….. win the popular vote, secure reruns in Florida and Michigan and undermine Obama’s credibility as the candidate to beat McCain.”