Comments on: After Mississippi: Dem Delegates and the Electoral College ‘Argument’ http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/ The Business End of the Blogosphere Mon, 06 Oct 2008 23:42:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5 By: TBlumer http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121090 TBlumer Sat, 15 Mar 2008 01:41:46 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121090 #9, wow, my translation indicates that you think Obama is in good shape -- I think. #9, wow, my translation indicates that you think Obama is in good shape — I think.

]]> By: James Opito http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121082 James Opito Fri, 14 Mar 2008 20:40:37 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121082 The Obama in surmountable attempts with clean victory records that swallows each and every Clinton wins are enough to vividly spell him out as the projected winner of US Democratic Primary Election. The Obama in surmountable attempts with clean victory records that swallows each and every Clinton wins are enough to vividly spell him out as the projected winner of US Democratic Primary Election.

]]> By: dscott http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121048 dscott Thu, 13 Mar 2008 15:06:31 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121048 Now here's an inconvenient fact: "None of them seem to have caught on that the officials who okayed the early primaries knowing that would nullify the votes are super-delegates whose votes will count anyway, even if they fixed it so the ordinary party members in their states will lose their votes." http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/03/a_modest_proposal_1.html What a Machievellian masterpiece of political manuvering! If these super delegates are pledged to Clinton, this would be quid pro quo. Even if Hillary had lost both Michigan and Florida and not counted them, she would have the super delegates to get the nomination. Now that it turned out she won the states she basically had them banked just in case. Talk about a slick triangulating manipulative move! Now here’s an inconvenient fact: “None of them seem to have caught on that the officials who okayed the early primaries knowing that would nullify the votes are super-delegates whose votes will count anyway, even if they fixed it so the ordinary party members in their states will lose their votes.”
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/03/a_modest_proposal_1.html

What a Machievellian masterpiece of political manuvering! If these super delegates are pledged to Clinton, this would be quid pro quo. Even if Hillary had lost both Michigan and Florida and not counted them, she would have the super delegates to get the nomination. Now that it turned out she won the states she basically had them banked just in case. Talk about a slick triangulating manipulative move!

]]> By: Anthony Watson http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121029 Anthony Watson Thu, 13 Mar 2008 03:37:11 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121029 I'm not sure how much it costs to switch a pledged delegate, but if I were Obama (or his campaign manager) I'd spend the money and favors on getting the pledged delegates back rather than take hers. If she did anything right, it would be to cover her tracks stealing a few of his and catching him in the act of stealing hers, and use that bad press as leverage to corral in the rest of his pledges. Plus, if he plays counter-dirty rather than stooping to her sociopathic tactics, he'll probably save enough pledges to win and persuade a few of hers to his side. I’m not sure how much it costs to switch a pledged delegate, but if I were Obama (or his campaign manager) I’d spend the money and favors on getting the pledged delegates back rather than take hers. If she did anything right, it would be to cover her tracks stealing a few of his and catching him in the act of stealing hers, and use that bad press as leverage to corral in the rest of his pledges.

Plus, if he plays counter-dirty rather than stooping to her sociopathic tactics, he’ll probably save enough pledges to win and persuade a few of hers to his side.

]]> By: TBlumer http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121028 TBlumer Thu, 13 Mar 2008 02:02:49 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121028 #3-4-5, you did fine. The absurdity of all of this is that even the PLEDGED primary delegates can change their minds, and the Clinton campaign has telegraphed its intention to go there if it has to: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8583.html The article gives the impression that Obama hasn't done so, but if she starts going after his, he'll start going after hers. Total, chaos. #3-4-5, you did fine.

The absurdity of all of this is that even the PLEDGED primary delegates can change their minds, and the Clinton campaign has telegraphed its intention to go there if it has to:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8583.html

The article gives the impression that Obama hasn’t done so, but if she starts going after his, he’ll start going after hers. Total, chaos.

]]> By: Anthony Watson http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121027 Anthony Watson Thu, 13 Mar 2008 01:43:12 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121027 I'll just give up now. Hope it makes sense despite my attempts at fancy airs. No wait. I see now. Okay, if this doesn't work, I promise to leave the formating to the pros. +++++++++++++++++++++Obama|||||||Clinton Pledged primary dels___________1401|||||||1240 Split of remaining primary del______293|||||||293 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Total primary delegates_________1694|||||||1533 ================================= Superdels needed for majority_____331|||||||492 ================================= % of total superdels for win______42%|||||||62% I’ll just give up now. Hope it makes sense despite my attempts at fancy airs.

No wait. I see now. Okay, if this doesn’t work, I promise to leave the formating to the pros.

+++++++++++++++++++++Obama|||||||Clinton
Pledged primary dels___________1401|||||||1240
Split of remaining primary del______293|||||||293
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total primary delegates_________1694|||||||1533
=================================
Superdels needed for majority_____331|||||||492
=================================
% of total superdels for win______42%|||||||62%

]]> By: Anthony Watson http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121026 Anthony Watson Thu, 13 Mar 2008 01:33:37 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121026 well that looks like the wrong side of my dinner. Let's try that again... Obama Clinton Pledged primary del 1401 1240 Split of remaining primary del 293 293 - - - - - - Total primary delegates 1694 1533 === === Superdels needed for majority 331 492 === === % of total superdels for win 42% 62% well that looks like the wrong side of my dinner. Let’s try that again…

Obama Clinton
Pledged primary del 1401 1240
Split of remaining primary del 293 293
- - - - - -
Total primary delegates 1694 1533
=== ===
Superdels needed for majority 331 492
=== ===
% of total superdels for win 42% 62%

]]> By: Anthony Watson http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121025 Anthony Watson Thu, 13 Mar 2008 01:29:13 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121025 What a relief that I found your site! I was trying to do this math on my own and kept getting lost. You did leave out one frightening contingency, however unlikely: No superdel loyalty whatsoever. I know, I know, they both have a few of them in their pocket pretty secure, but assuming we can't speculate exactly how many, and that the number of secure superdels is roughly equal, we can subtract the number of superdels from both of them and figure out how many total superdels either candidate truly needs to secure a majority (assuming they split the remaining primary delegates 50/50). Here's what I came up with (feel free to check my work, I'm prone to error): Obama Clinton Pledged primary del 1401 1240 Split of remaining primary del 293 293 ----- ------ Total primary delegates 1694 1533 ================ Superdels needed for majority 331 492 ================ % of total superdels for win 42% 62% If you divide the estimated superdels by the total they need, you end up with Obama at 63% to what he needs, and Clinton about halfway to what she needs. Not quite as devastating as your numbers, but I'm basing my numbers on a pretty devastating and unlikely situation (no matter how much she's counting on it.) Plus math is just fun. Speaking of Clinton's continued self-destruction of her credibility, did anyone else get really disenchanted (I went from leaning to fallen over) when she started up her "Obama is all talk, he can give a great speech but can he run the country, don't be seduced" campaign? It's a decent enough argument, I suppose, but I wonder if she realized she was xeroxing an argument she had heard 16 years ago, when they were hurled at her husband. What a relief that I found your site! I was trying to do this math on my own and kept getting lost. You did leave out one frightening contingency, however unlikely: No superdel loyalty whatsoever. I know, I know, they both have a few of them in their pocket pretty secure, but assuming we can’t speculate exactly how many, and that the number of secure superdels is roughly equal, we can subtract the number of superdels from both of them and figure out how many total superdels either candidate truly needs to secure a majority (assuming they split the remaining primary delegates 50/50). Here’s what I came up with (feel free to check my work, I’m prone to error):

Obama Clinton
Pledged primary del 1401 1240
Split of remaining primary del 293 293
—– ——
Total primary delegates 1694 1533
================
Superdels needed for majority 331 492
================
% of total superdels for win 42% 62%

If you divide the estimated superdels by the total they need, you end up with Obama at 63% to what he needs, and Clinton about halfway to what she needs. Not quite as devastating as your numbers, but I’m basing my numbers on a pretty devastating and unlikely situation (no matter how much she’s counting on it.) Plus math is just fun.

Speaking of Clinton’s continued self-destruction of her credibility, did anyone else get really disenchanted (I went from leaning to fallen over) when she started up her “Obama is all talk, he can give a great speech but can he run the country, don’t be seduced” campaign? It’s a decent enough argument, I suppose, but I wonder if she realized she was xeroxing an argument she had heard 16 years ago, when they were hurled at her husband.

]]> By: Burt http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121022 Burt Wed, 12 Mar 2008 22:12:05 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121022 Somebody's in denial.. Can I call the Clinton campaign "quixotic" yet? Somebody’s in denial..

Can I call the Clinton campaign “quixotic” yet?

]]> By: dscott http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121019 dscott Wed, 12 Mar 2008 19:20:16 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/03/12/after-mississippi-dem-delegates-and-the-electoral-college-argument/#comment-121019 Her argument has fallen into the same fallacy as Rudy's did, she claims she is going to win PA and other big states to come and therefore Obama should quit now and make nice by accepting the VP spot. Rudy thought he didn't need to win any of the pre-Florida states and create momentum out of thin air. Obama isn't buying the argument but I see some in the MSM and Dem party bosses are still clinging to it. Clinton is using an old manipulator's trick in an attempt to fool people into valuing the two birds in the bush more than the bird in the hand. Two birds may be more than one, but one bird is more than none when you haven't got them yet. LOL Her argument has fallen into the same fallacy as Rudy’s did, she claims she is going to win PA and other big states to come and therefore Obama should quit now and make nice by accepting the VP spot. Rudy thought he didn’t need to win any of the pre-Florida states and create momentum out of thin air. Obama isn’t buying the argument but I see some in the MSM and Dem party bosses are still clinging to it. Clinton is using an old manipulator’s trick in an attempt to fool people into valuing the two birds in the bush more than the bird in the hand. Two birds may be more than one, but one bird is more than none when you haven’t got them yet. LOL

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