April 22, 2008

Pennsylvania Primary Near-Dead Thread

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:15 pm

Here’s a direct link to Pennsylvania’s presidential primary results.

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Near-Dead Thread Updates:

The night’s bottom line — The pressure on the superdelegates has just ratcheted up considerably.

6:00 a.m., April 23 — The 99%-final margin in favor of Mrs. Clinton ended up at 8.5% 8.8%, narrowing in the final tallies instead of expanding as I thought it would. That doesn’t change the narrative for the evening, which is that Obama lost by enough to raise general-election viability issues, regardless of his current delegate lead. He and his handlers must surely be worried that as his four big problems become better-known (Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, Bittergate, and whining about the “audacity of being questioned”), the likely direction of his fortunes is not up.

A side note: Whoever was informing Drudge seemed to be exaggerating Hillary’s lead by a point or so all night long.

11:15 p.m. — Final thought: Obama will try the “we were down 20″ argument, but no one will be buying. Many, if not most, thought that he had narrowed Hillary’s margin to a statistical dead heat until the “bitter” thing, last Wednesday’s miserable performance, and his post-debate whining about the questions he was asked brought his momentum to a screeching halt, making everyone forget about Hillary’s Bosnia whopper.

11:10 p.m. — Final scoreboard check: Hillary is up 1038K – 845K (55.1%-44-9%) at Drudge, with 84% counted. The PA SOS has it at 962K – 820K (54.0%-46.0%), with 78% counted. Given how recent returns are coming in 75-25 Clinton, maybe Hillary’s margin will hit 12%. The higher that percentage is, the more credible the “he’s crumbling” argument becomes.

11:05 p.m. — Near-Final thought: That’s three big-state losses in a row for Obama (TX, OH, PA), and continues the Clinton-trumpeted record of winning the big ones (all but Obama’s IL). Expect the big-state meme to get ever stronger in the coming two weeks. Also, as Bill Keane noted in a comment at another post, don’t be surprised if Obama decides that another debate or two wouldn’t be such a bad idea after all, especially given that Katie Couric, who is/was to be the main questioner in the next debate, will probably be intimidated into softballing by the lefty outrage at the ABC guys who asked real, valid, important, uncomfortable, character-relevant questions last week.

11:00 p.m. — Taking Drudge’s latest numbers with 79% counted (952M – 776M; the latest Drudge increment went an astonishing 29K-6K for Hillary), we’re looking at 10-point Clinton margin that will probably hit just under 11 by the time it’s all over. I believe that is:
- Enough for her to claim continued viability.
- Smack dab on the borderline as to whether the “Obama crumbling” whispers will begin. I think it’s on the wrong side (from his perspective), and should be (he outspent her 3-1 11-5). But Old Media has been so protective of him you have to wonder if that will be the case.

10:55 p.m. — So it looks like they got to 70% counted pretty early, so I’ll jump in early so as to turn in earlier. Very impressive. I noticed during a sneak peak at Drudge and the PA site at about 10:30 that there was a striking difference. Drudge, who must be getting the PA State Dept.’s numbers relayed to him before the state even posts them, had 639K-539K Clinton, while the state had 583K-520K. Wherever those votes came from (and if Drudge’s numbers were right, that chunk went 56K-19K (75%) for Clinton. Wow.

10:00 p.m. — Hillary Clinton’s lead is just over 7% (53.6%-46.4%) with about one-third of the ballots counted. That means the next update here will be at about 11:30 when the counting is (hopefully) at least 70% done. If true, I would think that the “huge turnout” being reported helps her more than Obama.

9:30 p.m. — OK, I know Hillary won, but we knew that already. The victory margin is everything tonight. If it’s true that the bitter, religion-clinging, gun-toting, immigrant-fearing votes come in later, she has to be happy with her current 53-47 lead.

8:20 p.m. — Too close to call, according to ABC. Too early to pay attention, according to me. See ya at 10.
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Original Morning Entry:

I was thinking six weeks ago that I would live-blog the Pennsylvania Primary, update the delegate counts, and maybe even broach the idea of reprising Truth in Blogging’s historic Super Tuesday broadcast.

No longer, because:

  • I think the race for the Democratic nomination between the candidates I irreverently refer to as “Mr. BOOHOO-OUCH” (Mr. BOOHOO-OUCH (Barack O-bomba Overseas Hussein “Obambi” Obama – Objectively Unfit Coddler of Haters) and “HR4C” (Hillary Rodham Cackling Crying Complaining Clinton) is going to drag into the convention.
  • Delegate counts don’t matter, as even pledged delegates can change their minds. That’s like telling figure-skating judges that they can change their scoring of the first day’s results — after the second day is over.
  • Either candidate, but particularly Obama, is capable of driving their candidacy into the ditch at any moment. Of course anything can happen, but what I see at the moment is a mutual meltdown of historic proportions that is benefiting the candidate I irreverently refer to as “JS3M3″ (John Sidney the Mad Maverick McCain III).

Though I will move this post to the top and do a quick update about the results tonight, other tasks are more important.

Obama Won’t Debate in NC

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 1:48 pm

A link is here.

His campaign’s reasoning can be summarized as follows: “Last week’s debate made us go ‘BOOHOO’ and ‘OUCH.’”

The candidate was asked for his personal reaction. You can find it here.

Also: Doesn’t a chicken’s sound sort of resemble “Barack, Barack, Barack”?

Oklahoma Unemployment Is Way Down. Will Media Look into Why?

April 23 Follow-up: “More on Oklahoma’s Employment Situation: A Graphic I Wanted to Steal.

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Oklahoma’s unemployment rate, which was a seasonally adjusted 4.3% and 4.4%, respectively, in September and October 2007 (4.1% and 4.2% unadjusted), has fallen to a seasonally adjusted 3.1% in both February and March of this year (3.5% and 3.2% unadjusted).

The unemployment rate in most states has gone up from September 2007 to March 2008. In states where the rate has gone down, none has shown an improvement like that seen in the Sooner State — not even close.

Why is that?

What has happened in Oklahoma that hasn’t happened elsewhere?

Well, one thing Oklahoma did last year was to pass an enforcement-focused immigration reform law. It did so in May, and it took effect in November. Here is how One News Now described the bill at the time it was signed by the state’s governor (original link no longer available):

House Bill 1804 was passed by overwhelming majorities in both the House and Senate of the Oklahoma Legislature. The measure’s sponsor, State Representative Randy Terrill, says the bill has four main topical areas: it deals with identity theft; it terminates public assistance benefits to illegals; it empowers state and local police to enforce federal immigration laws; and it punishes employers who knowingly hire illegal aliens.

Oklahoma is no longer “O.K.” for illegal aliens, Terrill observes. “When you put everything together in context,” he contends, “the bottom line is illegal aliens will not come here if there are no jobs waiting for them, they will not stay here if there is no government subsidy, and they certainly won’t stay here if they know that if they ever encounter our state and local law enforcement officers, they will be physically detained until they’re deported. And that’s exactly what House Bill 1804 does.”

The Oklahoma legislator is pleased the bill he sponsored into law was signed by Governor Henry and believes it will go a long way to curb the illegal immigration problem in the state.

It seems reasonable to ask if the law has accomplished the intended curbing of illegal immigration. This January 9 USA Today article by Emily Bazar (“Strict immigration law rattles Okla. businesses”) indicates that it has — not that Bazar thinks that this is a good thing.

The next question to ask would be whether citizens have taken jobs that illegals used to do. Though the lower unemployment rate doesn’t in and of itself prove that, it does point strongly in that direction.

The improving employment situation in the state has received sparse coverage, and the only two relevant stories I found (here and here) did not attempt to explain why it’s happening.

Will anyone in Old Media dig more deeply into the Sooner State’s situation? Or will they try to pretend that Oklahoma’s improvement doesn’t exist, because finding out why might expose some inconvenient truths, and hurt the cause of illegal-immigrant “amnesty”?

Cross-posted at NewsBusters.org.

TILTPAT-BIDHAT4 (042208, Morning)

Filed under: TILTpatBIDHAT — Tom @ 6:07 am

“Things I‘d Like To Post About Today; But I Don’t Have Any Time ‘4‘”:

  • Confirming an observation at the 2008 Media Research Gala that his health seems to have improved, Tony Snow has taken a new gig at CNN. Congrats.
  • Allegedly prolife US Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania has endorsed the presidential candidate I refer to as Mr. BOOHOO-OUCH (Barack O-bomba Overseas Hussein “Obambi” Obama – Objectively Unfit Coddler of Haters). Obama is “the most pro-abortion presidential candidate ever.” The only conclusion one can reach is that Bob Casey really isn’t prolife.
  • There’s no love lost here for either Democratic presidential candidate, but it’s hard to disagree with this assessment of media coverage of Obama compared to the candidate I refer to as HR4C (Hillary Rodham Cackling Crying Complaining Clinton) — “the Clintonites are fundamentally correct in their complaint that she has been flying throughout this campaign into a headwind of media favoritism for Obama.”
  • From the “We Already Knew” Dept. — “Michael Moore endorses Obama
  • Earth Day Snorter of the Day — “Gore’s Alarmism Failing: Concern for Global Warming Same as 19 Years Ago!” That’s because the idea that humans are causing global warming, or that it is even happening, is a bunch of globaloney. As noted over a year ago, much of the scientific community remains unimpressed as well. Consensus, conschmensus.

Positivity: Rescue forms bond between girl, EMT

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 5:57 am

From Middletown, Pennsylvania:

April 11, 2008 6:05 AM

She had her bathing suit and flip-flops on and was getting ready to host a pool party.

She was off duty, and the last thing volunteer emergency medical technician Kristi Komyanek anticipated on this day was high drama.

But then her cell phone rang, the first in a series of rapid-fire events on May 27 that would end with Komyanek saving the life of 3-year-old Angelica Faith Bolton.

The call was from Frank Farry, assistant township manager in Middletown and chief at the Langhorne-Middletown Fire Co.

“I was with Adam Lyons, one of the guys from my squad [Penndel-Middletown Emergency Squad] who had arrived early for the party,” recalled Komyanek, 23. “I saw Frank’s name on the caller ID and was thinking, “Why is he calling me? He knows I’m off duty and having a party’.”

As Farry told her about a possible drowning, the location of the incident — Crescent Street in the High Pointe development of Middletown — immediately struck Komyanek.

“Hey, that’s my street,” she told Farry.

“I know,” he responded, “That’s why I called you.”

Racing a few hundred feet to the Boltons’ house, Komyanek came upon two adult baby-sitters sitting on the front porch and holding Angelica.

“They were screaming and crying for help,” she said. “I picked the baby up and felt for a pulse. She had one but wasn’t breathing. Her eyes were rolling around in the back of her head, her lips were powder blue and I could hear water swishing around in her lungs. I immediately started rescue breathing [artificial respiration] for her.”

Angelica’s parents, Helen and Bill Bolton, were not home at the time.

Apparently, Angelica had slipped past an unlocked gate and was next to the Bolton’s pool. Leaning over to rescue a toy that had fallen into the water, Angelica fell in and had remained there an unknown period of time.

“I don’t think anyone noticed until a pizza guy who had come to make a delivery went back outside and saw something floating in the pool,” Komyanek said.

As she continued breathing for Angelica, Komyanek said the rescue took on an almost dreamlike quality.

“All I could see was this little baby needing my help,” she said. “It was like nothing else or nobody else existed. It was almost like a movie, everything in slow motion, just me and her.”

Adam Lyons, a paramedic with Penndel-Middletown, did whatever he could to help, including summoning more assistance from the squad. A Middletown detective who lived next to the Boltons called four more township cops to stop traffic at intersections on the way to St. Mary Medical Center.

When the ambulance bearing Angelica arrived there, she was transferred to a helicopter and airlifted to Temple University Children’s Medical Center, where she remained in the intensive care unit for 16 days before making a full recovery.

“I went down to visit and a doctor told me if I hadn’t been there, Angelica would have died,” said Komyanek. “That was a very heartfelt moment, one I’ll never forget.” …..

Go here for the rest of the story.