April 22, 2008

Pennsylvania Primary Near-Dead Thread

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:15 pm

Here’s a direct link to Pennsylvania’s presidential primary results.

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Near-Dead Thread Updates:

The night’s bottom line — The pressure on the superdelegates has just ratcheted up considerably.

6:00 a.m., April 23 — The 99%-final margin in favor of Mrs. Clinton ended up at 8.5% 8.8%, narrowing in the final tallies instead of expanding as I thought it would. That doesn’t change the narrative for the evening, which is that Obama lost by enough to raise general-election viability issues, regardless of his current delegate lead. He and his handlers must surely be worried that as his four big problems become better-known (Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, Bittergate, and whining about the “audacity of being questioned”), the likely direction of his fortunes is not up.

A side note: Whoever was informing Drudge seemed to be exaggerating Hillary’s lead by a point or so all night long.

11:15 p.m. — Final thought: Obama will try the “we were down 20″ argument, but no one will be buying. Many, if not most, thought that he had narrowed Hillary’s margin to a statistical dead heat until the “bitter” thing, last Wednesday’s miserable performance, and his post-debate whining about the questions he was asked brought his momentum to a screeching halt, making everyone forget about Hillary’s Bosnia whopper.

11:10 p.m. — Final scoreboard check: Hillary is up 1038K – 845K (55.1%-44-9%) at Drudge, with 84% counted. The PA SOS has it at 962K – 820K (54.0%-46.0%), with 78% counted. Given how recent returns are coming in 75-25 Clinton, maybe Hillary’s margin will hit 12%. The higher that percentage is, the more credible the “he’s crumbling” argument becomes.

11:05 p.m. — Near-Final thought: That’s three big-state losses in a row for Obama (TX, OH, PA), and continues the Clinton-trumpeted record of winning the big ones (all but Obama’s IL). Expect the big-state meme to get ever stronger in the coming two weeks. Also, as Bill Keane noted in a comment at another post, don’t be surprised if Obama decides that another debate or two wouldn’t be such a bad idea after all, especially given that Katie Couric, who is/was to be the main questioner in the next debate, will probably be intimidated into softballing by the lefty outrage at the ABC guys who asked real, valid, important, uncomfortable, character-relevant questions last week.

11:00 p.m. — Taking Drudge’s latest numbers with 79% counted (952M – 776M; the latest Drudge increment went an astonishing 29K-6K for Hillary), we’re looking at 10-point Clinton margin that will probably hit just under 11 by the time it’s all over. I believe that is:
- Enough for her to claim continued viability.
- Smack dab on the borderline as to whether the “Obama crumbling” whispers will begin. I think it’s on the wrong side (from his perspective), and should be (he outspent her 3-1 11-5). But Old Media has been so protective of him you have to wonder if that will be the case.

10:55 p.m. — So it looks like they got to 70% counted pretty early, so I’ll jump in early so as to turn in earlier. Very impressive. I noticed during a sneak peak at Drudge and the PA site at about 10:30 that there was a striking difference. Drudge, who must be getting the PA State Dept.’s numbers relayed to him before the state even posts them, had 639K-539K Clinton, while the state had 583K-520K. Wherever those votes came from (and if Drudge’s numbers were right, that chunk went 56K-19K (75%) for Clinton. Wow.

10:00 p.m. — Hillary Clinton’s lead is just over 7% (53.6%-46.4%) with about one-third of the ballots counted. That means the next update here will be at about 11:30 when the counting is (hopefully) at least 70% done. If true, I would think that the “huge turnout” being reported helps her more than Obama.

9:30 p.m. — OK, I know Hillary won, but we knew that already. The victory margin is everything tonight. If it’s true that the bitter, religion-clinging, gun-toting, immigrant-fearing votes come in later, she has to be happy with her current 53-47 lead.

8:20 p.m. — Too close to call, according to ABC. Too early to pay attention, according to me. See ya at 10.
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Original Morning Entry:

I was thinking six weeks ago that I would live-blog the Pennsylvania Primary, update the delegate counts, and maybe even broach the idea of reprising Truth in Blogging’s historic Super Tuesday broadcast.

No longer, because:

  • I think the race for the Democratic nomination between the candidates I irreverently refer to as “Mr. BOOHOO-OUCH” (Mr. BOOHOO-OUCH (Barack O-bomba Overseas Hussein “Obambi” Obama – Objectively Unfit Coddler of Haters) and “HR4C” (Hillary Rodham Cackling Crying Complaining Clinton) is going to drag into the convention.
  • Delegate counts don’t matter, as even pledged delegates can change their minds. That’s like telling figure-skating judges that they can change their scoring of the first day’s results — after the second day is over.
  • Either candidate, but particularly Obama, is capable of driving their candidacy into the ditch at any moment. Of course anything can happen, but what I see at the moment is a mutual meltdown of historic proportions that is benefiting the candidate I irreverently refer to as “JS3M3″ (John Sidney the Mad Maverick McCain III).

Though I will move this post to the top and do a quick update about the results tonight, other tasks are more important.

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2 Comments

  1. “Delegate counts don’t matter, as even pledged delegates can change their minds. That’s like telling figure-skating judges that they can change their scoring of the first day’s results — after the second day is over.”

    More than any other statement made by Clinton, this one confirms that this contest was over before it started, the superdelegates will be making the final selection no matter what candidate received the most votes in the primary. As Stalin said: “Those who cast the votes decide nothing, those who count the votes decide everything” Ever since the Democrats changed the nomination rules, their primaries became merely a immense propaganda effort to advance the agenda. The MSM loves the faux contest as it helps the ratings and gives an heir of legitimacy to a rigged contest. To participate is to validate, thus every time someone votes for the candidate of their choice, they validate the rules set up by the Democrat bosses.

    Comment by dscott — April 22, 2008 @ 9:42 am

  2. Note to “Laughing Person” — I’m betting you’re reading this.

    I sweetly (not bitterly) deleted your sad-sack comment.

    Comment by TBlumer — April 22, 2008 @ 7:20 pm

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