For Uncle Sam, Most of the Big Money Is In; The Deficit Will Balloon
Uncle Sam’s Monthly Treasury Statement for March came in a bit better than I expected a few weeks ago:

Receipts were higher, but not by a lot in the grand scheme. Spending was lower, but still is running unacceptably, and unsustainably, ahead of last year.
To guard against being unduly pessimistic, I held off posting on this until a lot of the receipts relating to the April 15 tax-filing deadline came in. April is typically the government’s biggest collections month; all taxpayers are supposed to settle up with Uncle Sam for the previous year, and those who make quarterly estimated tax payments have to send in their first installment.
Well, the key numbers for April are, surprisingly (to me), looking good in comparison to last April’s record-shattering, supply-side tax-cut vindicating $383.6 billion (related Daily Treasury Statement links — April 21, 2008; April 20, 2007; through 15 business days in each month):

Perhaps this is one last hurrah of supply-side vindication.
Contrary to what you might expect, at least if this year follows last, big payments of individual taxes will continue to come in each day until the end of the month. So it’s conceivable, though I believe unlikely, that April 2008 will set a new record for tax collections.
The full year outlook for the deficit still does not look good.
Even if April is great, receipts are only a couple of points ahead of last year. The stimulus checks start going out in May. Spending isn’t under control. The deficit will be very, very big — much, much higher than last year’s $162 billion.
At the moment, I blame Bush, and I blame the current Congress. The former gets about half, the other two get the other half. But investor expectations that Congress will do nothing, and thereby allow huge tax increases to take effect beginning next year — increases that will change the tax system that has been in effect since 2003 for the worse, and will slow down an already-mediocre economy — tilt the blame meter more towards the Pelosi-Reid bunch with each passing day.
UPDATE: Holy moly, the April 22 Daily Treasury Statement (just posted by Treasury) shows another $46.6 billion in individual non-withheld tax collections. There wasn’t a day like that in the final 8 business days of last year. $400 billion, anyone?
UPDATE 2: The first update also raises this question — If things are so bad, how come individuals and businesses have been generating so much income that they have to pay tax on? This may be a small clue that first-quarter growth really wasn’t negative.










