May 7, 2008

Updated NC-IN Vote Breakdowns

Filed under: Taxes & Government — TBlumer @ 11:20 pm

These reflect Obama’s percentages of the African-American vote in NC and IN as noted by Jim Geraghty at the Campaign Spot:

NCprimaryFinal0508

ObamaINperformance0508

Previous commentary is at this previous post, and this one.

Further elaboration on the NC-IN results is at Newsbusters.org.

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UPDATE, May 8 (HT to commenter dscott): A MYDDer compared Obama’s performances in Virginia, in the midst of when he was cruising to big wins, and North Carolina, and found that:

(in NC — Ed.) Obama won 40% of White Men (28% of total)
Obama won 33% of White Women in NC (35% of total)
Obama won 91% of Black Men in NC (13% of total)
Obama won 91% of Black Women in NC (20% of total)

Obama lost ground among:
White Men (-27)
White Women (-12)
Black Men (-2)
He gained among Black Women (+6)

Stop the Hoosier State Spinsanity; Obama Had It, and Lost It (Rush Update; Indiana Analysis Update)

Filed under: MSM Biz/Other Bias, MSM Biz/Other Ignorance, Taxes & Government — TBlumer @ 10:09 am

Read this:

APindianaPostMortemBHOHRC0508

Here’s what the middle para above means: Polls, schmolls — Obama had the Hoosier State in the bag until the Wright mess came along, and he let it get away.

If it weren’t for Wright, Obama wins Indiana, and the contest would be over.

Spin that.

Further elaboration on the NC-IN results is at Newsbusters.org.

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UPDATE, 1 p.m.: Rush is on today saying that the Obama campaign has said three separate times in the past 18 hours that Hillary would not have won Indiana if it were not for Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos campaign to get Republicans to register as Democrats and vote for her. If so, it’s the Obama-Wright decay that made it close enough for Operation Chaos to have a chance to succeed.

UPDATE 2, 1:30 p.m.: Well. Be careful what you “assume.” My estimate of Obama’s performance with non-African Americans in Indiana is that he did more dismally than I would have thought:

ObamaINperformance0508

(This chart was updated with a different African-American vote percentage and slightly different vote totals at this later BizzyBlog post.)

Given the next-door-neighbor effect, getting barely 40% of the non-black vote is pitiful.

As before, the vote numbers are from this ABC link. The estimate of black voter turnout is based on a black Hoosier State population percentage of 9.4%, then assuming that its turnout multiple was the same as North Carolina’s estimate (40% turnout divided by 22.3% of the population):

40% divided by 22.3% = 1.79
1.79 times 9.4% = 16.8%

As with North Carolina, the result supports the notion that Mrs. Clinton would outperform Obama in the general election.

UPDATE 3, 2 p.m.: Now here’s an interesting point. What percentage of the African-American vote did Obama win in South Carolina? Surprise: “Only” 80%.

It’s going to be really easy, and really wrong, for Old Media to try to claim that the above-90% black support of Obama is a Rev. Wright backlash. The fact is that Obama got 86% of the black vote in Ohio, where the governor, who is somewhat popular with blacks, was and still is a Hillary superdelegate. He won 85% of the black vote in Texas. Both primaries took place nine days before the Wright story broke nationally.

It’s much more likely that the extraordinarily high black vote in NC and IN was part of an ongoing reaction to Bill Clinton’s “subtle” race-card playing that began after South Carolina. Ohio and Texas were just short of the halfway marks of that trend, which has never truly ended. Obama’s African-American pickups have had little if anything to do with Wright.

Barack the Magic Nominee?

Filed under: MSM Biz/Other Bias, MSM Biz/Other Ignorance — TBlumer @ 9:23 am

As expected, many in the press are falling in line to declare the presidential candidate I irreverently refer to as “Mr. BOOHOO-OUCH” (Barack O-bomba Overseas Hussein “Obambi” Obama - Objectively Unfit Coddler of Haters) the nominee. Tim Russert has anointed him. The pressure on the candidate I irreverently refer to as “HR4C” (Hillary Rodham Cackling Crying Complaining Clinton) has to be enormous.

Those who are doing the “Barack the Inevitable” dance need to explain how someone transitions into general election mode when he barely won 1/3 of the non-white vote in North Carolina:

NCprimaryFinal0508

(This chart was updated with a different African-American vote percentage and slightly different vote totals at this later BizzyBlog post.)

Vote totals are here.

Take the items in yellow as “givens,” and the item in orange is the forced result. The Obama percentage of the African-American vote is based on this USA Today article’s claim that blacks went 13-1 for Obama in exit polls. Any cleaner info than the 40% I have for the estimated African-American percentage of total turnout, which is based on supposed early-voting breakdowns that I can’t find a link for, would be welcome (with a link if possible).

As noted last night, Obama won every demographic group except white females in South Carolina. He almost certainly lost every major group except African-Americans in North Carolina.

Yes, Indiana looks different (Update: Not as much as originally thought), but everyone’s totally ignoring the Illinois senator’s next-door neighbor effect, especially in high-turnout Gary. In the 45 states that either aren’t Illinois or don’t meaningfully border Illinois, the North Carolina result should be frightening to Dems who want to win the White House as opposed to feeling good about themselves while losing (based on the update just noted, the Illinois border states aren’t automatics for Obama in the general).

Further elaboration on the NC-IN results is at Newsbusters.org.

Positivity: Italian Mother ‘Lays Down Her Life’ for Her Unborn Child

Filed under: Positivity — TBlumer @ 5:58 am

From PIEVE DI SOLIGO, Italy:

Thursday May 1, 2008

Paola Brenda sacrifices life for “gift of motherhood, the gift of having children”

In an act of sacrifice comparable to that of pro-life patroness St. Gianna Beretta Molla, Italian mother Paola Breda recently died after having declined potentially life-saving cancer treatment that could have harmed her unborn child.

Breda was diagnosed with breast cancer six months into her pregnancy with her child Nicola, but postponed treatment until after Nicola’s birth.

During her funeral, Vittorio Veneto Bishop Corrado Pizziolo called Breda an exemplification of Jesus Christ’s Gospel call “to lay down one’s life for one’s friends.”

“What Jesus did - the Gospel which He lived for us - this is what we see carried out in the life of our sister,” said the Bishop according to the Italian newspaper Avvenire.

Father Giuseppe Nadal told Radio Vaticana that Breda was disappointed that she and her husband Loris Amodei were unable to have a child until a decade into their marriage.

Both Breda’s first child, Illaria, and her second child, Nicola, brought their mother great joy, said the priest. Fr. Nadal also recounted a teary-eyed Breda coming to him during her second pregnancy.

Go here for the rest of the story.