May 16, 2008

California Draggin’ and Wolverine Woes Mask an Otherwise Decent Employment Situation

How different do you think Americans’ take on the current economy would be if the business press picked up on the fact that the bad employment news is coming predominantly out of two struggling states — and that most of the rest of the nation is holding its own?

That’s the question that occurred to me as I looked at April’s Bureau of Labor Statistics regional and state employment and unemployment report this morning.

Three things stick out:
- How big of a drag California is in the overall employment picture.
- How much of an outlier Michigan is.
- How Oklahoma continues to impress.

How much California and Michigan are affecting the overall picture is a real eye-opener:

April08UnempUSandCAandMI

(Note: The seasonally adjusted rate for all states differs from the nationally reported rate of 5.0% earlier this month because of differences in data collection methods.)

The Not-So-Golden State and the home of the Wolverines have a combined 15% of the workforce, but almost 20% of the unemployed. Without them (tempting, but I have relatives in CA who needs to be warned first), the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate would be 0.2% lower, the unadjusted rate would be 0.3% lower, and the press wouldn’t be talking about the supposed recession (OK, they wouldn’t be talking about it quite as much).

Only three other “states” — relatively small AK, DC, and RI — have seasonally adjusted or unadjusted unemployment rates of 6.0% or above. Roughly two-thirds of all states have unemployment rates of 4.9% or lower.

So at least from a jobs standpoint, if you want to talk about “economies” in recession (a term that should really be limited to whole countries), we should be talking about the states of California and Michigan, because the rest of the country is doing pretty well. I don’t recall two states having such a disproportionate impact on the national picture during other economic rough patches, with maybe Texas and Louisiana in the late 1970s and early 1980s being an exception.

If the election ends up being about the economy, and John McCain loses, it’s a pretty good bet that Arnold Schwarzenegger won’t make the Arizona Senator’s Christmas card list.

Many in the business press, rather than focusing on the mostly self-inflicted problems in California and Michigan, would appear to want to make it look as if economic sluggishness is a nationwide phenomenon, when it clearly isn’t.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s exceptional performance continued in April, as its seasonally adjusted and unadjusted unemployment rates came in at 3.2% and 2.9%, respectively — down 1.2% and 1.0%, respectively from April 2007. No state with a larger population has lower unemployment.

I theorized last month (at NewsBusters; at BizzyBlog) that the Sooner State’s enforcement-focused immigration legislation passed last year might a main contributor to its outstanding employment situation. The longer its rate stays much lower than the rest of the nation’s — even if California and Michigan are taken out of the comparison — the more compelling that theory will be.

Cross-posted at NewsBusters.org.

TILPAT-BIDHAT4 (051608, Morning)

Filed under: TILTpatBIDHAT — TBlumer @ 8:53 am

“Things I‘d Like To Post About Today; But I Don’t Have Any Time ‘4‘”:

  • Planned Parenthood makes excuses for getting caught sympathizing with the desirability of aborting black babies. Wire service proabort mouthpiece the AP laps it up (HT WND).
  • If Gateway Pundit isn’t the best and most varied deep-digger out there, I don’t know who is. This post on how Nancy Pelosi and Congress are giving Colombia the free-trade shaft is outstanding.
  • The idea that President Bush was “sending a message” to the presidential candidate I refer to as “Mr. BOOHOO-OUCH” (Barack O-bomba Overseas Hussein “Obambi” Obama - Objectively Unfit Coddler of Haters) yesterday in his speech in Israel is comical. But, since the Obama campaign brought it up, their candidate resembles Bush’s remarks about appeasers. As Instapundit noted, “When somebody condemns appeasement, it doesn’t help things to jump up and yell ‘Hey, he’s talking about me!’”
  • If Obama IS in control of the person putting out the YouTube vid questioning the ability of the candidate I refer to as JS3M3 (John Sidney the Mad Maverick McCain III) to get his business done in the bedroom, it may be the dumbest campaign move designed to alienate a major voting bloc I have ever seen.
  • Correlation of the day: An anti-tax Massachusetts group is working to get repeal of the state’s income tax (HT Club for Growth) on the ballot. It only needs a ridiculously low 11,000 signatures. The correlation is this: If so few signatures are needed, why didn’t pro-same sex marriage advocates in the Bay State ever put the measure on the ballot — i.e., the way it’s supposed to be done — instead of running to the state’s Supreme Judicial Court to get the still-not-codified-into-law (at least that was the case the last time I checked) Goodridge ruling? You know why. It’s for the same reason those in favor of same sex marriage got the California Supreme Court to invent a right that isn’t in that state’s constitution yesterday.
  • Megan McArdle is right (HT Instapundit): “It’s a miracle unemployment is as low as it is.” Read this CNN article about job interviewing tips, and you’ll wonder what planet some applicants are on that they don’t know these things already. Don’t miss the 10 apparently real examples near the end of what some applicants did or said during interviews. How many tenths of a percent should we handicap the current unemployment rate to make it comparable to 20 or so years ago when the vast majority of applicants had a clue?

Positivity: Hero dad fights flames to save couple

Filed under: Positivity — TBlumer @ 6:00 am

From England:

09 May 2008 | 12:30

A HEROIC father today described how he fought his way into a burning car to rescue two people from raging flames.

Salim Alleesaib was driving along the A12 when he saw a car collide with a vehicle, which contained Ipswich Town boss Jim Magilton and chairman David Sheepshanks.

A dramatic scene unfolded as the vehicle burst into flames, promoting Mr Alleesaib to spring into action and rescue those trapped inside.

Mr Sheepshanks and Mr Magilton, along with club advisor Charlie Woods and player liaison officer Wolfe Powell, were travelling in a Toyota Land Cruiser on the northbound carriageway near Brentwood when they got caught in traffic.

As it slowed to walking pace, another car collided with their vehicle before bursting into flames.

Mr Alleesaib, a 43-year-old father-of-three who lives in Brentwood, said: “I saw some brake lights on in front of me and slowed down.

“Then there was a car coming along faster and didn’t notice what was happening. It collided with another car, which caused a big impact and then lit up and caught fire.

“I put my hazard lights on and got out of the car and ran over to help. I went to the driver’s side first but couldn’t open the door so went around to the passenger’s side and dragged the driver’s wife out first. They were both saying they were in pain but all I could think was that the car was going to go up in any minute.

“I didn’t think of the consequences - it was just natural instinct and I wanted them to be safe. I would hope someone would do the same for me if I was in that situation.” …..

Go here for the rest of the story.