MT and SD Dem Primaries Near-Dead Thread
This is a near-dead thread because, as noted before, Democratic Party pledged delegates have the ability to change their minds at the convention. Therefore, barring a concession, Hillary Clinton remains in the race. As long as superdelegates have the right to change their minds before the convention (I believe they do), Hillary Clinton has no good reason to end the race. The potential for pledged delegates to change their minds shouldn’t be underestimated either. Do you really think every one of Obama’s Iowa pledged delegates is comfortable with what they’ve seen in the past 90 days, and that not one of them is having second thoughts?
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12:45 a.m. — Calling it a night. Obama’s margin in MT is 18% with 44% counted, and Hillary’s lead in SD has narrowed to 10% with 98% counted. My 10:20 p.m. conclusion stands. The last 90 days represent the biggest embarrassment any major-party presidential candidate has ever produced — and it would have been worse, had not the fawning Old Media press corps attempted to protect him at every turn.
A good barometer of how far the so-called mainstream press has gone off the rails — In 1972 George McGovern had his Tom Eagleton problem, and it caused him quite a bit of widely-known grief. Barack Obama has had the equivalent of at least a half-dozen Tom Eagleton incidents and gaffes (it’s probably closer to a dozen) — and the press has attempted to minimize or excuse each and every one of them to the point of self-parody.
12:10 a.m. – Obama has a convincing lead of 59-39 in MT, but only 26% are counted. Hard to imagine that any particular part of the state is more or less Hillary-friendly, so an Obama win there seems assured, and was called a couple of hours ago by the nets. Hillary’s SD margin of 56-44 has held through 95% of the vote there.
10:30 p.m. – I’ll be back after midnight after something definitive comes in from Montana. Meanwhile, chew on the fact that Jimmy Carter, who apparently has declared or will declare for Obama tonight, said two years ago that the Illinois senator isn’t ready for prime time. What has happened during the campaign that would make anyone believe that Obama has proven anything? All I see is an ever-growing list of reasons why he’s objectively unfit for the office he currently holds, let alone the presidency.
10:25 p.m. – The first 10,000 MT votes are in and Obama has a 50-46 lead. I’m guessing these are all of the early/absentee votes, since the precincts counted percentage is still zero. Hillary hangs on to her 12-point lead in SD, with half the votes counted.
10:20 p.m. – Reviewing the history at Real Clear Politics, starting on March 4, up to and including South Dakota tonight:
- Clinton has won 9 states/entities (RI, OH, TX, PA, IN, WV, KY, PR, SD) and 502 delegates.
- Obama has won 5 states/entities (VT, WY, MS, NC, OR) and 462 delegates.
- I’m considering Guam a toss-up, given the razor-thin, margin, the call for a recount (can’t tell if it happened), and the huge proportion of spoiled ballots (500, or about 9% — in a caucus! Insert dumb Democrat voter joke here).
Regardless of the MT outcome, I can guarantee you that no presumptive nominee of any party has had his butt kicked so thoroughly and completely, in so many states, over such an extended period of time, as Barack Obama has in the past 13 weeks. There is no historical precedent for this. Obama comes in with the weakest within-party support of any major-party candidate in at least the past 80 years — and I should add that he doesn’t deserve the support he is receiving.
10:00 p.m. – Now to the known results:
According to ABC, Clinton wins South Dakota, claiming 56% of the vote with 38% counted.
Apparently the polls in MT have yet to close.










