July 3, 2008

June’s ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: Ouch

Filed under: Business Moves,Economy — Tom @ 9:15 am

Expectations are that the Institute for Supply Management’s Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI), which covers about 85% of the economy, and which came in at 51.7% last month, will have a June reading of 50.7% (AP) or 51.0% (Bond Buyer). Any reading above 50% indicates expansion.

Given that ISM’s June manufacturing index moved from slight contraction to slighter expansion despite the horrible month in the auto business, I’m guessing that the NMI will hold steady or bump up just a bit.

The answer arrives shortly after 10:00 a.m.

UPDATE: Ouch (bold in second paragraph is mine) –

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in June, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Managementâ„¢ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton Hotels Corporation. “The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) decreased 3.5 percentage points in June to 48.2 percent, indicating contraction after two consecutive months of growth within the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 3.7 percentage points to 49.9 percent. The New Orders Index decreased 5 percentage points to 48.6 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 4.9 percentage points to 43.8 percent.

This calls for a separate post.

Here it is: “Welcome to the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) Economy: A Washington-Driven Recession or Downturn May Have Begun.”



  1. That makes sense given the service sector and retail is affected by the price of gasoline given how much cost of transportation immediately impacts the goods they receive and send. The gas price spike sent the economy initially down during both oil embargos, Gulf War I, and Iraq war.

    The Iranians are banking on this btw, that’s why they threatened to close the Straights of Hormuz if attacked by the Israelis. They are counting on enough political pressure from the Dems to forestall the Israelis from stopping their nuclear ambitions. The Dems new meme will be world instability through use of force increased the price of oil not 30 years of our meddling incompetence.

    Comment by dscott — July 3, 2008 @ 11:02 am

  2. #1, they can also react more quickly than manufacturers.

    Unless the Bush cuts and/or the stimulus checks have more power than I believe they do, ISM manufacturing will go negative in July.

    Comment by TBlumer — July 3, 2008 @ 1:15 pm

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