Comments on: The Government’s June Employment Report

By: dscott

dscott — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:51:40 +0000

Is the inquiry the BLS makes with both households or strictly with employers? I got the impression they were surveying households as well which would in effect count off the books jobs and illegals and also the unemployed (Not in Workforce).

By: TBlumer

TBlumer — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:27:52 +0000

#3, good points for A, but I don’t think for B. I think BLS will have higher employed numbers in the “A” reports (for the unemployment rate) because of what you say, but in theory the jobs numbers in the “B” reports should be (mostly) in sync, unless you think someone responding to a “B” inquiry is going to include off-the-books people in the numbers given to BLS (doubtful).

By: dscott

dscott — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:12:52 +0000

But there is also the issue of under the table jobs that may or may not be worked by an illegal. Given the manner in which BLS gathers their info, people who are employed “off the books” as far as the IRS is concerned are potentially counted (just ignoring the immigration status for the moment). While ADP counts only those jobs that are on the books. Wouldn’t that account for much of the descrepany between the BLS and ADP figures?

E.g. let’s say I (a citizen) worked for a plumbing company on a cash basis and was fobbed off as a misc. expense, ADP doesn’t know the plumber has the employee, however, BLS might via the survey. Now let’s say, the plumber drops me as a misc. expense, then I might show up on the BLS survey as unemployed or not working.

By: TBlumer

TBlumer — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 13:48:28 +0000

#1, ADP is people getting payroll checks. If illegals are getting on payroll with bogus, stolen, or repeat SocSec numbers, they’re not in a position to catch it.

Although …. wouldn’t it be fun (probably not legal) to see if a given SocSec number shows up at three or more companies, or companies in different towns far from each other? Obvious red flags.

Can’t tell about the illegals leaving.

By: dscott

dscott — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 13:20:33 +0000

I note two interesting nuances in the numbers. While unemployment for adult men went up, adult women went down. The same occurred for hispanics (up) versus blacks (down).

I have to wonder if this might be a continuing indication of the illegals being pushed out. Now they aren’t supposed to be drawing unemployment benefits… But they still might be counted in any event. Doesn’t the ADP report in essence only report on “legal” jobs due to the manner in which the info is collected? i.e. jobs on the books