August 5, 2008

July’s ISM Non Manufacturing Index: Up, But Still in Slight Contraction

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 12:27 pm

This morning’s post from Hades on Michael Grunwald’s disgraceful defense of Barack Obama’s infamous tire inflation-based energy policy kept me from getting to the ISM’s Non Manufacturing Index in real time, which is something I generally try to do. Oh well.

Here’s the news (paragraph and dash breaks added by me for readability):

July 2008 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 49.5%

The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) increased 1.3 percentage points in July to 49.5 percent, indicating contraction for the second consecutive month in the non-manufacturing sector.

- The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 0.3 percentage point to 49.6 percent.

- The New Orders Index decreased 0.7 percentage point to 47.9 percent, and the Employment Index increased 3.3 percentage points to 47.1 percent.

- The Prices Index decreased 3.7 percentage points to 80.8 percent in July, indicating a slower rate in price increases than in June.

According to the NMI, nine non-manufacturing industries reported growth in July. Members’ comments in July indicate concern about inflationary pressures and the effect on the economy. Respondents’ comments are mixed about business conditions and vary by industry and company.

I have a feeling this whipped expectations, but let’s see …. Yup:

My take: Right direction, not enough oomph. This index needs to get into seriously positive territory if GDP growth is to rise above the mediocre.

But I fear that the overseers of the POR Economyâ„¢ (Pelosi, Obama, and Reid), with their nuttiness in preventing oil drilling and insistence on increasing taxes, will prevent further progress. In my view, they want to see a negative third quarter GDP report in the worst way, and are bound and determined to do anything to get it. I am coming to believe that they see their presidential standard-bearer, “The One” I refer to as “Mr. BOOHOO-OUCH” (Barack O-bomba Overseas Hussein “Obambi” Obama – Objectively Unfit Coddler of Haters) as deeply flawed, and that a poor POR Economyâ„¢ is their last best hope of salvaging a presidential win. The country, even their natural constituencies, be damned.

Time’s Tripe Is ‘Tired’: Writer Claims Obama Is Right, Ridicule Is ‘Smear’ (See Update)

UPDATE, Aug. 6 — The media fact-checker overview begins here (the original post is below the fold):

  • “….. all the oil that they’re talking about getting off drilling” Obama refers to is NOT just the 200,000 additional barrels obtainable from the “Pacific, Atlantic and eastern Gulf regions.” Republican proposals also include Alaska, shale oil, and tar sands.
  • Just including Alaska coastal at very conservative extraction assumptions leads to a potential of almost 1 million barrels of oil a day instead of only 200,000.
  • Fully ramped-up production from shale oil and tar sands at very conservative extraction assumptions would lead to a potential of another 27 million (you read that right) barrels a day.
  • The potential savings from proper tire inflation and tune-ups, which would improve fleetwide gas mileage by at most 2%, would be about 120,000 barrels a day, as only 30% of the nation’s 20 million barrels per day oil usage goes towards gasoline for vehicles. (2% times 30% times 20 million equals 120,000.) The remaining usage is 40% for other transportation (trucks using diesel, aviation, and trains) and 30% for non-transportations uses.
  • This 120,000 barrels in potential savings (which I believe is STILL higher than realistically achievable), is only 60% of the additional oil obtainable from “Pacific, Atlantic and eastern Gulf regions,” about 12% of what is obtainable from all US coasts, and less than 1% of what is obtainable from all sources, including shale and tar sands.
  • The idea that proper tire inflation and tune-ups could reduce daily oil consumption by 800,000 barrels, or 4% of ALL oil usage, as Obama defenders are claiming, is absurd on its face.

Details of the original post follow.


Positivity: Omaha Women Save a Life

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 5:57 am

From Omaha, Nebraska:

Publication Date: Friday, July 18, 2008

K.C. Lathrop sits in an Omaha hospital room surrounded by family. Talking. Laughing. Joking.

He’s taking phone calls. He doesn’t like all the attention he’s getting. Says he’d rather not talk about what happened.

At the same time, he wants to thank those who saved his life. “I have a lot to be thankful for today,” he says quietly. “I do understand that people want to know how I’m doing. It’s nice to know so many people care.”

Four days earlier, Lathrop lay motionless on a Cozad street after collapsing and hitting his head on the asphalt at the end of the Rock, Roll and Run 10K race.

The crowd and organizers at Saturday’s race watched in silence as two other runners, Darci Kelly of North Platte and Laura Heirigs of Sutherland, began CPR on Lathrop after determining he had no pulse and was not breathing.

“At first, I thought it was someone with heat stress, and I pulled out my phone to dial 911,” said race organizer Dustin Favinger. “There was really no time to think. We just had to react.”

Kelly is a lifeguard and director of Cozad’s CPR program, and Heirigs is a physician assistant.

“Within seconds, they were at his side,” Favinger said. “Somebody said they thought he was laying there without a heartbeat for about seven minutes.”

Lathrop, 32, of Gothenburg also was helped at the scene by Cozad police Officer Randy Adams and a nurse, Julie Giffis of Cozad. About three minutes after Lathrop collapsed, Laura Heirigs’ husband, Rick, finished the race and offered assistance.

“He’s a cardiologist, so when he finished running he saw what happened and jumped in to help,” Favinger said. “It was so surreal. Time just seemed to slow down.”

After being transported to Cozad Community Hospital, Lathrop was flown by AirCare to Good Samaritan Hospital in Kearney and later transferred to an Omaha hospital.

A former standout athlete at Kearney High School and a University of Nebraska at Kearney football player, Lathrop placed 13th overall and second in his age division after finishing the 6.2-mile race in just more than 46 minutes. Lathrop’s wife, Amanda, also competed in the race.

“I’m doing good, and I feel better. I have a very strong support system of family and friends, and that has helped,” said Lathrop, who teaches and coaches in Gothenburg. K.C.’s dad, Craig, is a longtime coach and teacher at Kearney High. …..

Go here for the rest of the story.