Latest Pajamas Media Column (’Economy May Not Be Bad Enough to Help Dems’) Is Up
I will post it at BizzyBlog on Sunday morning (link won’t work until then) under the title “The POR Economy: Not Too Poor to Swing an Election.”
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UPDATE: Showing that the “bad” part is largely in perception only, here’s a Gallup poll showing that Job satisfaction is close to its highest level during this decade. The only time it was higher, and only slightly, was (audible lefty gulp detected) exactly four years ago.
Though comparative data mostly isn’t available, only 9% are either somewhat dissatisfied (7%) or completely dissatisfied (2%). 48% are completely satisfied (the only comparative metric presented), while another 42% are somewhat satisfied.
That’s not a lot of seething worker discontent.
These results would explain the press’s persistence in relentlessly portraying a modestly growing economy as one that is going down the tubes. The only way lefties gain headway on the economy is to convince people that it’s really, really bad out there — for everyone else.
I think the important thing to note here is if CA, MI and Ill (lib dominated states) were taken out of the picture, the unemployment rate would be seen as low to modest which is where people are basing their perceptions of the economy. You already touched on that one a week or so ago. If all the people you know are working, then by perception the economy is good no matter what the growth rate. When people from CA, MI and Ill are thrown into the mix when surveyed then of course the mood is going to be less than peachy. With El Centro CA at 22.4% unemployment, who in their right minds would say the economy is good? On the other hand when liberal policies come home to roost, then it’s time for a CHANGE.
I think where the GOP is going wrong on this point is it’s failure to point out the pockets of high unemployment and not properly credit the incompetence of Democrat policies. McCain needs to do a better job of seizing on the issues every time Obama spouts one of his liberal tropes.
Comment by dscott — August 22, 2008 @ 1:32 pm
How desperate are you wingnuts anyway? Ohio’s unemploymet rate is 7.2%. Florida’s is 6.7%.
Get real.
Bernanke: “most challenging economic and policy environments in memory”
“The financial storm that reached gale force some weeks before our last meeting here in Jackson Hole has not yet subsided, and its effects on the broader economy are becoming apparent in the form of softening economic activity and rising unemployment. Add to this mix a jump in inflation … and the result has been one of the most challenging economic and policy environments in memory.” Fed Chairman Bernanke, Aug 22, 2008 Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at the Jackson Hole Symposium: Reducing Systemic Risk
On Inflation:
“In view of the weakening outlook and the downside risks to growth, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained a relatively low target for the federal funds rate despite an increase in inflationary pressures. This strategy has been conditioned on our expectation that the prices of oil and other commodities would ultimately stabilize, in part as the result of slowing global growth, and that this outcome, together with well-anchored inflation expectations and increased slack in resource utilization, would foster a return to price stability in the medium run. In this regard, the recent decline in commodity prices, as well as the increased stability of the dollar, has been encouraging. If not reversed, these developments, together with a pace of growth that is likely to fall short of potential for a time, should lead inflation to moderate later this year and next year. Nevertheless, the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain.”
This is about as pessimistic as a Fed Chairman can be on the economic outlook.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/08/bernanke-most-challenging-economic-and.html
Keep drinking that kool-aid wingnuts. Anyway, you are either getting The Mittster or Holy Joe Loserman as a VP candidate.
You are finished.
Comment by CincyCapell — August 22, 2008 @ 3:01 pm
Warren Buffet Says U.S. Economy Will be Worse off in Five Months
(CEP News) – The U.S. economy continues to be in recession and will continue to be for some time, according to billionaire investor Warren Buffet.
Appearing on CNBC Friday morning, Buffet said he is confident the economy is in recession because most Americans are worse off than they were, even though the technical definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth.
He said the economy will be even worse off five months from now…Continued @ http://www.economicnews.ca/cepnews/wire/article/110802
Here’s the money quote from Buffet’s address: “Anyone who denies that we are in a recession is fooling themselves”
Comment by Bill — August 22, 2008 @ 4:21 pm
#2 and #3 (since you’re the same person coming from the same IP address — zheesh):
- Buffett has been claiming recession for almost a year, even though there was only one quarter of tiny negative growth. Specificially, the last 4 quarters have been annualized 4.8%, -0.2%, 0.9%, and 1.9% (pending revs). Nobody said it’s great, but it’s not a disaster.
- Bernanke says it’s “challenging.” With all due respect, it’s his job to meet the challenge so it doesn’t go bad, which it isn’t as of yet.
- dscott should have included OH in his list. OH has a Dem Gov, and the cities/counties in the worst trouble are Dem-dominated (Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown, Toledo, Dayton). Cincy, esp the ring counties is doing OK. Columbus is doing OK too.
- There are plenty of red states doing fine (TX 4.4% unemployment, LA 3.9%, OK 4.1%). Why is that?
- If we head into recession, it will be PRIMARILY because the Dem Congress let fuel prices get out of control and/or raised taxes (if Obama wins).
Comment by TBlumer — August 22, 2008 @ 9:34 pm
#4, well my list wasn’t meant to be exhaustive,
However, to address #2 & 3, Tom you hit it right on the head, the rise in fuel prices from $2/gallon to $4/gallon had it’s inevitable effect over a two year period. So much for Pelosi’s broken promises in 2006 to reduce the price of gas, I guess we misheard her, she really meant to increase them not decrease them. Let’s add on top of that failure to repeal the drilling ban to increase supply, the screws up Clinton appointees to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac removing prudent lending requirements for purchasing home mortgages. Now that the meltdown has started, what do they do? They put back the prudent requirements, now talk about closing the barn door after the horse got out! The current economic slowdown is fully the Democrats responsibility with their failed liberal policies. Thank the POR economy.
Comment by dscott — August 22, 2008 @ 10:08 pm