On the Markets, I’m Not Buying What ‘Everyone’ Is Sellling
As I asked a couple of days ago: How do they “know”? Answer: They don’, and I doubt the reason is what they say it is..
I think it’s this simple: As it becomes ever more clear that government is going to take more and more ownership and “stakeholder” positions in formerly independent bank, insurance and other companies, the markets know that profits at those companies will not be their paramount goal. The government will try to impose every regulation and distraction imaginable on their targets (and perhaps their customers too). Future profit prospects at such companies are, of course, in the tank. Therefore, so are discounted future cash flows. Therefore, so are share prices.
Ask yourself this: If the press and the sky-is-falling crowd are right about the whole problem being access to credit and a crashing world economy, why has tech, which is usually MORE sensitive to the business cycle than other industries, collectively fallen a lot less than the markets as a whole? Answer: Because the government hasn’t set about taking over and ruining tech — yet.
It’s here









