Gallup’s New ‘Likely Voter’ Category: Likely to Find More Obama Voters
Just in time for the final weeks of the presidential election campaign, Gallup has added a nuance to its polling presentations.
Instead of merely presenting “registered” and “likely” voters, the polling firm has decided to present a third category: an “expanded” version of likely voters. This third category is in addition to its “traditional” likely-voter presentation.
My look at Gallup’s October 12-14 results indicates that the “expanded” version is indeed likely — likely to find Obama voters, and that’s about it.
First, here’s the organization’s explanation of the new category (HT frequent commenter Joe C):
Here is the October 12-14 presentation of the three categories:
To get to the new “expanded” version from the original, more time-tested “traditional” result, here is roughly what the breakdown between Obama, McCain, and others has to be (the “expanded” column was decreased by 0.5% each for McCain and Obama so that the total percentages would add up to 100%):
Yeah, right. 86% – 9% of the 159 new “expanded” likely voters go to Obama. How convenient.
This doesn’t even pass the stench test, let alone the smell test.
Cross-posted at NewsBusters.org.
This is the REAL reason that ACORN is committing registration fraud. NOT for vote fraud, which is much tougher – although if that occurred too, it would just be gravy to them – it’s in order to increase the registration differential to affect polling. As we are seeing with the polls with a party identity differential among “likely” voters of 6, 8, 15%, skews the polls to inflate Dem numbers to project an air of inevitability in order to sway the disengaged middle who only want to vote for “the winner.”
Here’s all you need to know: Since 1988, the largest party ID differential for any election – that includes 2 Clinton wins, the Rep takeover in ‘94, the Dem takeover in ‘06 – has been Dem +4 in ‘96.
For example, The Ohio Poll – the most accurate polling service in Ohio – which has projected Election Day winners in 34 of 34 statewide contests polled since ‘94 has McCain +2 in Ohio using their usual model. All other polling services give Obama a lead anywhere from +2 to +5 per RCP. I’ll believe The Ohio Poll – based on track record – which suggests that the other polls are 4-7 off to Obama’s favor, probably due to the reason I outlined above.
Every election Dems think THIS will be the year that all those winos, homeless, and college students are going to vote, and it hasn’t happened yet. Some day it may (possibly ‘08), but I have no reason to believe that this will be the year. Remember, all those newly registered voters were unregistered for a reason – THEY DON’T VOTE! I would assume any other national poll with a Dem advantage >4 is likely suspect, and needs to be adjusted at the point of consumption.
Comment by Joe C. — October 16, 2008 @ 2:50 pm
#1, the point about skewing the polls is a good one, maybe.
It starts on whether they rely on voters to self-identify, which I think they do.
The next question is whether they then get Ds and Rs until their proportion is the same as the territory involved according to official records (state or nationa), OR whether they do it based on separate scientific attempts to get D/R/I proportions. If it’s the former, it’s skewing the polls to the extent ACORN has inflated the rolls with Dems. If it’s the latter, it has no effect.
I submit that it’s the latter, because (believe it or not) the percentage of Ohioans who are ACTUALLY registered as Ds and Rs is HUGELY lower than those present in Gallup samples.
BTW, sorry for the delayed HT.
Comment by TBlumer — October 16, 2008 @ 10:18 pm