Comments on: NBER Goes into the Tank; Says Recession Began and Remained in Effect Through Two Quarters of Growth http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/12/01/nber-goes-into-the-tank-says-recession-began-and-remained-in-effect-through-two-quarters-of-growth/ The Business End of the Blogosphere Mon, 15 Mar 2010 15:08:48 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8 hourly 1 By: BizzyBlog » Latest Pajamas Media Column (’Obama’s Race Against the Economy’) Is Up (UPDATES: Other Favorable Signs; Thoughts on NBER’s Recession Call) http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/12/01/nber-goes-into-the-tank-says-recession-began-and-remained-in-effect-through-two-quarters-of-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-126622 BizzyBlog » Latest Pajamas Media Column (’Obama’s Race Against the Economy’) Is Up (UPDATES: Other Favorable Signs; Thoughts on NBER’s Recession Call) Fri, 26 Dec 2008 13:03:18 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/?p=7753#comment-126622 [...] century.” I still think that the NBER’s recession call earlier this month is “full of crap” — that is, premature and not supported by the [...] [...] century.” I still think that the NBER’s recession call earlier this month is “full of crap” — that is, premature and not supported by the [...]

]]> By: TBlumer http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/12/01/nber-goes-into-the-tank-says-recession-began-and-remained-in-effect-through-two-quarters-of-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-126273 TBlumer Sun, 07 Dec 2008 00:52:07 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/?p=7753#comment-126273 #8, yeah silly me, recession is about the absence or presence of economic growth, it is NOT NOT NOT what the NBER says it is (diminishing economic activity or some such BS). They don't own the dictionary, and they don't get to arbitrarily redefine words. Nor do you. They have joined you in the parade of embarrassment. Nothing has changed. #8, yeah silly me, recession is about the absence or presence of economic growth, it is NOT NOT NOT what the NBER says it is (diminishing economic activity or some such BS).

They don’t own the dictionary, and they don’t get to arbitrarily redefine words. Nor do you.

They have joined you in the parade of embarrassment. Nothing has changed.

]]> By: Invictus http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/12/01/nber-goes-into-the-tank-says-recession-began-and-remained-in-effect-through-two-quarters-of-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-126269 Invictus Sat, 06 Dec 2008 19:19:34 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/?p=7753#comment-126269 Your continued laser-like focus on GDP, to the exclusion of any and all other metrics, is the singular reason you're so confused about the NBER's call. Those of us who accept that they look at much more than GDP, and that GDP is just one of the ingredients in the mix, can actually <a HREF="http://www.blah3.com/article.php?story=20081108083643985" rel="nofollow">successfully anticipate</A> their call. It simply isn't that difficult. Of course, when I was here <A>back in May</A> trying to explain the situation, I had your friend Rose chiming in, "There you go again Tom, talking over a 6th grade level. Sweetie, this moveon.org ignoramus obviously went to a really bad public screwal (redundant) or was home schooled by an illiterate parent. Perfect example of a liberal whacknut… I may print this out and read it on the radio." Yup, I certainly embarrassed myself with the comments I made back in May arguing that a recession was underway. Your continued laser-like focus on GDP, to the exclusion of any and all other metrics, is the singular reason you’re so confused about the NBER’s call. Those of us who accept that they look at much more than GDP, and that GDP is just one of the ingredients in the mix, can actually successfully anticipate their call. It simply isn’t that difficult.

Of course, when I was here back in May trying to explain the situation, I had your friend Rose chiming in, “There you go again Tom, talking over a 6th grade level. Sweetie, this moveon.org ignoramus obviously went to a really bad public screwal (redundant) or was home schooled by an illiterate parent. Perfect example of a liberal whacknut… I may print this out and read it on the radio.” Yup, I certainly embarrassed myself with the comments I made back in May arguing that a recession was underway.

]]> By: dscott http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/12/01/nber-goes-into-the-tank-says-recession-began-and-remained-in-effect-through-two-quarters-of-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-126229 dscott Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:48:27 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/?p=7753#comment-126229 Excellent article on AT: http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/12/nbers_anomalous_recession_call.html The punch line is at the end of the article. Excellent article on AT: http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/12/nbers_anomalous_recession_call.html

The punch line is at the end of the article.

]]> By: TBlumer http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/12/01/nber-goes-into-the-tank-says-recession-began-and-remained-in-effect-through-two-quarters-of-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-126210 TBlumer Wed, 03 Dec 2008 13:35:21 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/?p=7753#comment-126210 Dan, great point you made in your piece about productivity. The economy can grow and still shed jobs. It's less than a desirable situation, but it doesn't change the fact that it's growing. According to NBER "logic," agriculture has been in recession for 60 or more years, even though output has steadily increased, because it has gone from employing a double-digit percentage of the population to about 2%. Dan, great point you made in your piece about productivity. The economy can grow and still shed jobs. It’s less than a desirable situation, but it doesn’t change the fact that it’s growing.

According to NBER “logic,” agriculture has been in recession for 60 or more years, even though output has steadily increased, because it has gone from employing a double-digit percentage of the population to about 2%.

]]> By: dscott http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/12/01/nber-goes-into-the-tank-says-recession-began-and-remained-in-effect-through-two-quarters-of-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-126209 dscott Wed, 03 Dec 2008 13:05:18 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/?p=7753#comment-126209 Tom, thanks for the inspiration, your article helped connect some more dots: http://conservablogs.com/publiusforum/2008/12/03/the-great-money-printing-cover-up/ Tom, thanks for the inspiration, your article helped connect some more dots:

http://conservablogs.com/publiusforum/2008/12/03/the-great-money-printing-cover-up/

]]> By: dscott http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/12/01/nber-goes-into-the-tank-says-recession-began-and-remained-in-effect-through-two-quarters-of-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-126205 dscott Tue, 02 Dec 2008 20:30:47 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/?p=7753#comment-126205 Adjusted Monetary Base: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf Looks to me since September the Fed has printed about $650 billion so far... around a 40% expansion of the money supply. Or am I misinterpreting what this chart represents? If so, where did the money come from???? Adjusted Monetary Base: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
Looks to me since September the Fed has printed about $650 billion so far… around a 40% expansion of the money supply. Or am I misinterpreting what this chart represents? If so, where did the money come from????

]]> By: dscott http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/12/01/nber-goes-into-the-tank-says-recession-began-and-remained-in-effect-through-two-quarters-of-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-126198 dscott Tue, 02 Dec 2008 14:21:54 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/?p=7753#comment-126198 http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DBAA?cid=119 Watch the Moody Baa Bond rates as this reflects the real interest rates needed to draw investment capital for private enterprise. Only $350 billion of the $700 has been spent so far, now imagine what will happen when they go for the $500+ billion stimulous package! The idiots in government will suck the life out of the private markets and thus the downward spiral will intensify... http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DBAA?cid=119 Watch the Moody Baa Bond rates as this reflects the real interest rates needed to draw investment capital for private enterprise. Only $350 billion of the $700 has been spent so far, now imagine what will happen when they go for the $500+ billion stimulous package! The idiots in government will suck the life out of the private markets and thus the downward spiral will intensify…

]]> By: dscott http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/12/01/nber-goes-into-the-tank-says-recession-began-and-remained-in-effect-through-two-quarters-of-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-126197 dscott Tue, 02 Dec 2008 13:46:34 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/?p=7753#comment-126197 Warning, Danger Will Robinson, Danger! It seems the bureaucrats have decided to back date the recession to justify some things you and I would be screaming about at the top of our lungs. This is why they are foisting the NBER estimates proclaiming we have been in a recession since last December. Another variation on the "WE MUST DO SOMETHING" meme. Fed Signals More Action as Slump Drags On <i>Recession Began a Year Ago, Making It Longest Since Early '80s, Panel Says; Bernanke Considers Rate Cuts, <b>Bond Purchases</b></i> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122815304785769411.html <b>It could bring down long-term rates now by purchasing Treasury bonds itself. A central bank has the capacity to effectively print money by injecting reserves into the banking system and could use the funds to buy securities like bonds. In normal times, this would be highly inflationary. But Mr. Bernanke noted that the recession is putting downward pressure on inflation now, which gives him flexibility to keep pressing with new measures to battle the recession. He also said the Fed would unwind its programs when the economy stabilizes, to help guard against inflation. The Fed has already taken a big step toward targeting long-term interest rates. Last week, it said it would buy up to $600 billion in debt issued or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae and Federal Home Loan Banks, all mortgage businesses with close tied to the government.</b> I really hate to say it...but I told you so. Thus the printing of money begins in earnest. Be afraid, be very afraid, because this is an acknowledgement the government could not draw enough private sector money to fund all their proposed schemes and so as I predicted, they would take the next step. http://conservablogs.com/publiusforum/2008/11/06/the-coming-depression/ The Fed is doing everything it can to dictate low interest rates by artificially not allowing them to rise in response to weak bond sales. This is in essence a cover up. Warning, Danger Will Robinson, Danger!

It seems the bureaucrats have decided to back date the recession to justify some things you and I would be screaming about at the top of our lungs. This is why they are foisting the NBER estimates proclaiming we have been in a recession since last December. Another variation on the “WE MUST DO SOMETHING” meme.

Fed Signals More Action as Slump Drags On
Recession Began a Year Ago, Making It Longest Since Early ’80s, Panel Says; Bernanke Considers Rate Cuts, Bond Purchases

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122815304785769411.html

It could bring down long-term rates now by purchasing Treasury bonds itself. A central bank has the capacity to effectively print money by injecting reserves into the banking system and could use the funds to buy securities like bonds. In normal times, this would be highly inflationary. But Mr. Bernanke noted that the recession is putting downward pressure on inflation now, which gives him flexibility to keep pressing with new measures to battle the recession. He also said the Fed would unwind its programs when the economy stabilizes, to help guard against inflation.

The Fed has already taken a big step toward targeting long-term interest rates. Last week, it said it would buy up to $600 billion in debt issued or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae and Federal Home Loan Banks, all mortgage businesses with close tied to the government.

I really hate to say it…but I told you so. Thus the printing of money begins in earnest. Be afraid, be very afraid, because this is an acknowledgement the government could not draw enough private sector money to fund all their proposed schemes and so as I predicted, they would take the next step. http://conservablogs.com/publiusforum/2008/11/06/the-coming-depression/ The Fed is doing everything it can to dictate low interest rates by artificially not allowing them to rise in response to weak bond sales. This is in essence a cover up.

]]> By: dscott http://www.bizzyblog.com/2008/12/01/nber-goes-into-the-tank-says-recession-began-and-remained-in-effect-through-two-quarters-of-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-126187 dscott Mon, 01 Dec 2008 22:00:47 +0000 http://www.bizzyblog.com/?p=7753#comment-126187 Unless you are in print, the recession has been going on for years... http://newsosaur.blogspot.com/2008/11/newspapers-eye-extreme-cuts-as-crisis.html This I suspect is the real source of continual recession talk during the Bush Admin. Unless you are in print, the recession has been going on for years… http://newsosaur.blogspot.com/2008/11/newspapers-eye-extreme-cuts-as-crisis.html This I suspect is the real source of continual recession talk during the Bush Admin.

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